Weekly Commentary Archives 2017-03-02T11:32:28+00:00

June 16, 2017: Peak Stimulus Has Passed

Bloomberg Radio/Television’s Tom Keene, Wednesday June 14, 2017: “Professor, what is the question you want to ask chair Yellen at the press conference here in six minutes?” Narayana Kocherlakota, former [...]

June 17th, 2017|

June 2, 2017: Liquidity Trade

It’s not quite 1999 at this point, but it’s been moving in that direction. In about five months’ time, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) has posted a gain of 20.5%. NDX [...]

June 2nd, 2017|

May 26, 2017: Moody’s Downgrades China

Marie Diron, Moody’s associate managing director, Sovereign Risk Group, commenting Wednesday on Moody’s Chinese downgrade (Bloomberg Television): “It is likely to be a very medium-term and gradual erosion of credit [...]

May 26th, 2017|

May 19, 2017: Just the Facts

For the Week: The S&P500 slipped 0.4% (up 6.4% y-t-d), and the Dow declined 0.4% (up 5.3%). The Utilities lost 0.5% (up 6.1%). The Banks fell 1.6% (down 1.9%), and [...]

May 19th, 2017|

May 12, 2017: The VIX and the Scheme

There was little market reaction to Emanuel Macron’s widely-anticipated big victory in the French presidential election. The euro actually retreated somewhat, in a “sell the news” dynamic. European equities ended [...]

May 12th, 2017|

May 5, 2017: Belly of the Beast

We’re at an important juncture for the global Bubble. There are growing divergences and anomalies. Market signals are increasingly conflicting and confounding: European equities in melt-up and U.S. markets at [...]

May 5th, 2017|

April 28, 2017: Unsound Finance

With Emanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen moving on to next Sunday’s (May 7) runoff French presidential election, first-round results proved right in line with the polls. One would typically [...]

April 28th, 2017|

April 7, 2017: Just the Facts

For the Week: The S&P500 slipped 0.3% (up 5.2% y-t-d), while the Dow was about unchanged (up 4.5%). The Utilities added 0.3% (up 5.3%). The Banks fell 1.2% (down 1.0%), and the Broker/Dealers dropped 2.4% [...]

April 7th, 2017|

March 24, 2017: Discussions on the Fed Put

Market focus this week turned to troubled healthcare legislation, with the GOP Friday pulling the vote on the repeal of Obamacare. This “Republican Catastrophe” (Drudge ran with a Hindenburg photo) [...]

March 24th, 2017|

March 17, 2017: Another Missed Opportunity

March 16 – Financial Times (Robin Wigglesworth, Joe Rennison and Nicole Bullock): “When Romeo impatiently hankered after Juliet, the sage friar Lawrence dispensed some valuable advice: ‘Wisely and slow; they [...]

March 17th, 2017|

March 3, 2017: Reality vs. The Neutral Rate

How about a cursory look at recent economic data: February’s 57.7 ISM Manufacturing reading was the strongest since August 2014. New Orders at 65.1 matched the strongest level (Dec. 2013) [...]

March 3rd, 2017|
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