Weekly Commentary Archives

Weekly Commentary Archives2017-03-02T11:32:28-06:00

October 4, 2019: Resurrecting M2

This week’s disappointing ISM reports dominated business headlines: “US Manufacturing Survey Shows Worst Reading in a Decade.” “U.S. Factory Gauge Hits 10-Year Low as World Slowdown Widens.” “U.S. Manufacturers Experience Worst Month Since 2007-2009 Great Recession.” [...]

October 4th, 2019|

September 27, 2019: Q2 2019 Z.1 and Repos

Non-Financial Debt (NFD) expanded $408 billion during Q1 to a record $53.015 TN. This was down from Q1’s $765 billion expansion. On a seasonally-adjusted and annualized (SAAR) basis, Q2 NFD growth slowed to $1.652 TN [...]

September 28th, 2019|

September 20, 2019: No Coincidences

September 20 – Wall Street Journal (Daniel Kruger): “The Federal Reserve Bank of New York will offer to add at least $75 billion daily to the financial system through Oct. 10, prolonging its efforts to [...]

September 21st, 2019|

September 14, 2019: Just the Facts

For the Week: The S&P500 gained 1.0% (up 20.0% y-t-d), and the Dow rose 1.6% (up 16.7%). The Utilities were unchanged (up 18.8%). The Banks surged 7.8% (up 18.8%), and the Broker/Dealers jumped 5.2% (up [...]

September 14th, 2019|

August 30, 2019: Dudley Sticks His Neck Out

What a fascinating environment; each week bringing something extraordinary. Yet there is this dreadful feeling that things are advancing toward some type of cataclysm. “U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war with China keeps undermining the [...]

August 31st, 2019|

August 16, 2019: Comeuppance

The Chinese Credit machine sputtered in July. Growth in Total Aggregate Financing dropped to $144 billion, almost 40% below consensus estimates. This was less than half of June’s $320 billion increase and the slowest expansion [...]

August 16th, 2019|

August 9, 2019: “Hot Money” Watch

In the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) Monday daily currency value “fixing,” the yuan/renminbi was set 0.33% weaker (vs. dollar) at 6.9225. Market reaction was immediate and intense. The Chinese currency quickly traded to 7.03 [...]

August 10th, 2019|

August 2, 2019: Trump’s China Tariff Tweets

Twenty-four hours that confounded – as well as clarified. Chairman Powell has, again, been widely criticized for his messaging. With the markets and President Trump breathing down his neck, he’s been in a no-win situation. [...]

August 3rd, 2019|

July 26, 2019: Fanning the Flames

The Federal Reserve abandoned “data dependent” – at least for next week’s FOMC meeting. December futures imply a 1.78% Fed funds rate, up six bps for the week but still 62 bps below today’s 2.40% [...]

July 27th, 2019|

July 19, 2019: Living Life at the ZLB

There must be members of the FOMC feeling they are about to be railroaded into a 50 bps cut a week from Wednesday. Chairman Powell essentially pre-committed to a reduction last week in testimony before [...]

July 20th, 2019|

July 12, 2019: Central Banker to the World

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany next Thursday, July 18th, at 4:00PM EST/ 2:00pm MST for the Tactical Short Q2 recap conference call, “What’s Behind the Global Yield Collapse?” Click here to register. July [...]

July 13th, 2019|

July 5, 2019: Abject Monetary Disorder

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany Thursday, July 18th, at 4:00PM EST/ 2:00pm MST for the Tactical Short Q2 recap conference call, “What’s Behind the Global Yield Collapse?” Click here to register. A market [...]

July 6th, 2019|

June 28, 2019: History Rhymes

President Trump and President Xi are meeting in Osaka as I write. We’ll know much more in the morning. Pre-meeting reports had the two sides agreeing to a “truce.” Heading into the meeting, President Trump [...]

June 29th, 2019|

June 14, 2019: Q1 2019 Z.1 “Flow of Funds”

Total Non-Financial Debt (NFD) expanded (nominal) $721 billion (strongest growth since Q2 ’18) during the quarter to a record $52.579 TN. NFD expanded $2.504 TN, or 5.0%, year-on-year. For perspective, annual NFD growth averaged $1.602 [...]

June 15th, 2019|

June 7, 2019: Horde of Jumbo Bazookas

“Stocks Eye Best Week of 2019 on ‘Powell Put’ Bets,” read the Friday Bloomberg headline. By the close of Friday trading, the S&P500 had posted a gain of 4.4% (“best week since November”). Also from [...]

June 8th, 2019|

May 31, 2019: So Much for the Trump Put

So Much for the “Trump Put.” May 31 – Bloomberg (Felice Maranz): “President Trump’s promise to impose tariffs on goods until Mexico halts a flow of undocumented immigrants is being panned by analysts and economists… [...]

June 1st, 2019|
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