Weekly Commentary Archives

Total Non-Financial Debt (NFD) expanded (nominal) $721 billion (strongest growth since Q2 ’18) during the quarter to a record $52.579 TN. NFD expanded $2.504 TN, or 5.0%, year-on-year. For perspective, annual NFD growth averaged $1.602 [...]

“Stocks Eye Best Week of 2019 on ‘Powell Put’ Bets,” read the Friday Bloomberg headline. By the close of Friday trading, the S&P500 had posted a gain of 4.4% (“best week since November”). Also from [...]

So Much for the “Trump Put.” May 31 – Bloomberg (Felice Maranz): “President Trump’s promise to impose tariffs on goods until Mexico halts a flow of undocumented immigrants is being panned by analysts and economists… [...]

After years of increasingly close cooperation and collaboration, the relationship has turned strained. Both sides are digging in their heels. Credibility is on the line. If one side doesn’t back down, things could really turn [...]

Let’s begin with the markets. Ten-year Treasury yields dropped eight bps this week to 2.39%, nearing the March 27th low (2.37%). Two-year yields fell seven bps to 2.20%, a 13-month low. German bund yields declined [...]

What went wrong? Clearly, all the positive talk from both the U.S. and China painted a much too rosy picture of trade negotiation progress. From the Wall Street Journal (Lingling Wei and Bob Davis): “The [...]

May 3 – Financial Times (Sam Fleming): “Having lamented low inflation as one of the great challenges facing central bankers today in March, Jay Powell on Wednesday wrongfooted many investors with comments that seemed to [...]

This week saw all-time highs in the S&P500, the Nasdaq Composite, the Nasdaq100, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. Microsoft’s market capitalization reached $1 TN for the first time. First quarter GDP was reported at a [...]

April 16 – Bloomberg (Rich Miller and Craig Torres): “Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues have made an important shift in their strategy for dealing with inflation in a prelude to what could [...]

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this Thursday, April 18th, at 4:00PM EST/ 2:00pm MST for the Tactical Short Q1 recap conference call, “What are Central Banks Afraid of?” Click here to register. China’s [...]

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany Thursday, April 18th, at 4:00PM EST/ 2:00pm MST for the Tactical Short Q1 recap conference call, “What are Central Banks Afraid of?” Click here to register. April 5 [...]

From the global Bubble perspective, it was one extraordinary quarter worthy of chronicling in some detail. The “Everything Rally,” indeed. Markets turned even more highly synchronized – across the globe and across asset classes. As [...]

This week’s FOMC meeting will be debated for years – perhaps even decades. The Fed essentially pre-committed to no rate hike in 2019. The committee downgraded both its growth and inflation forecasts. Having all at [...]

My interest was piqued by a Friday Bloomberg article (Ben Holland), “The Era of Cheap Money Shows No One Knows How Monetary Policy Works.” “Monetary policy is supposed to work like this: cut interest rates, [...]

I’ve been anxiously awaiting the Fed’s Q4 2018 Z.1 “Flow of Funds” report. It provided the first comprehensive look at how this period’s market instability affected various sectors within the financial system. From ballooning Broker/Dealer [...]

For the Week: The S&P500 added 0.4% (up 11.8% y-t-d), while the Dow was little changed (up 11.6%). The Utilities slipped 0.3% (up 8.0%). The Banks increased 0.6% (up 17.2%), while the Broker/Dealers were little [...]

December’s market instability and resulting Fed capitulation to the marketplace continue to reverberate. At this point, markets basically assume the Fed is well into the process of terminating policy normalization. Only a couple of months [...]

The world is now fully embroiled in a most precarious period. I wonder if the Fed is comfortable seeing the markets dash skyward – the small caps up 16.4% y-t-d, Banks 15.9%, Transports 15.2%, Biotechs [...]

February 8 – Bloomberg (Brian Chappatta): “Bond traders are dusting off their tried and true post-crisis playbook after the Federal Reserve’s pivot last month. What they don’t realize is that the game has most likely [...]

January 30 – Financial Times (Sam Fleming): “After putting traders on notice six weeks ago to expect further increases in US interest rates in 2019, the Federal Reserve… executed one of its sharpest U-turns in [...]