Weekly Commentary Archives

December 13 – Financial Times (Chris Giles and Claire Jones): “When the European Central Bank switches off its money-printing press at the turn of this year and stops buying fresh assets, it will mark the [...]

Total Non-Financial Debt (NFD) expanded at a 4.4% annual rate during Q3 to a record $51.324 TN. Since the end of 2008, NFD has increased $16.3 TN, or 46%. Q3’s NFD growth rate was down [...]

Upon the public release of Jerome Powell’s Wednesday speech came the Bloomberg headline: “Powell: No Preset Policy Path, Rates ‘Just Below’ Neutral Range.” When the Fed Chairman began his presentation to the New York Economic [...]

For the Week: The S&P500 dropped 3.8% (down 1.5% y-t-d), and the Dow fell 4.4% (down 1.8%). The Utilities declined 1.4% (up 1.4%). The Banks lost 2.3% (down 8.1%), and the Broker/Dealers fell 2.8% (down [...]

What ever happened to “Six Sigma”? GE was one of the most beloved and hyped S&P500 stocks during the late-nineties Bubble Era. With “visionary” Jack Welch at the helm, GE was being transformed into a [...]

The Dow (DJIA) jumped 545 points (2.1%) in Wednesday’s post-midterms trading. The S&P500’s 2.1% rise was overshadowed by the Nasdaq Comp’s 2.6% and the Nasdaq100’s 3.1% advances. Healthcare stocks surged, with the S&P500 Healthcare Index [...]

The Dow (DJIA) traded as low as 24,122 in late-Monday afternoon trading. By Friday’s open, the Dow had rallied 1,457 points, or 6.0%, to 25,579. Relatively speaking, the Dow was a tame kitten. From Monday’s [...]

Let’s begin with global. China’s yuan (CNY) traded to 6.9644 to the dollar in early-Friday trading, almost matching the low (vs. dollar) from December 2016 (6.9649). CNY is basically trading at lows going back to [...]

From the perspective of monitoring an unfolding global crisis, things turned only more concerning this week. The Shanghai Composite declined to 2,450 in early Friday trading, the low since November 2014 – and down almost [...]

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this Thursday, October 18th at 4:00PM EST/ 2:00pm MST for the Tactical Short Q3 recap conference call, “Market Contagion is Back.” Click here [...]

October 3 – CNBC (Jeff Cox): “Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank has a ways to go yet before it gets interest rates to where they are neither restrictive nor accommodative. In [...]

“Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it.” I’ll add that those that learn the wrong lessons from Bubbles are doomed to face greater future peril. The ten-year anniversary of the financial [...]

Non-Financial Debt (NFD) expanded at a seasonally-adjusted and annualized rate (SAAR) of $2.283 TN during the second quarter. While this was down from Q1’s booming SAAR $3.681 TN, it nonetheless puts first-half Credit growth at [...]

For the Week: The S&P500 gained 1.2% (up 8.7% y-t-d), and the Dow added 0.9% (up 5.8%). The Utilities increased 0.4% (up 1.9%). The Banks dropped 2.1% (up 0.8%), and the Broker/Dealers added 0.3% (up [...]

We’re rapidly Approaching the 10-year Anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis. Exactly one decade ago to the day (September 7, 2008), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were placed into government receivership. And for at least [...]

I’ve been here before and, candidly, it’s not much fun. Lodged in my mind this week was the brilliant quote from the 19th century German philosopher Arthur Schopenhauer: “All truth passes through three stages: First, [...]

Fed Chairman Powell is in a tough spot, one made no easier now that he’s on the receiving end of disapproving presidential tweets. The global Bubble has begun to falter, [...]

With the Turkish lira down another 6.6% in Monday trading, global “Risk Off” market Instability was turning acute. The U.S. dollar index jumped to an almost 14-month high Monday, as the Turkish lira, Argentine peso, [...]

The Turkish lira sank 13.7% in chaotic Friday trading. The lira’s 21.0% “worst week in 17 years” collapse pushed y-t-d losses to 41.1%. Turkish 10-year yields spiked to almost 21%, before retreating somewhat. After beginning [...]

The renminbi traded at 6.8935 in early-Friday trading, with intensified selling pushing the Chinese currency to its lowest level (vs. the $) since May 26, 2017. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) was compelled to [...]