Weekly Commentary Archives2017-03-02T11:32:28-07:00

December 23, 2022: Just the Facts

For the Week: The S&P500 slipped 0.2% (down 19.3% y-t-d), while the Dow increased 0.9% (down 8.6%). The Utilities rallied 1.5% (down 1.8%). The Banks recovered 1.7% (down 24.9%), and the Broker/Dealers gained 1.1% (down [...]

December 23rd, 2022|

December 16, 2022: Credit Downturn Acceleration

Interesting week. The FOMC statement and “dot plot” were viewed as somewhat more hawkish than expected. In his press conference, it was a solid “Balanced Powell” performance. Powell stuck with his now familiar hawkish points. [...]

December 17th, 2022|

December 2, 2022: Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde

Bloomberg’s Jonathan Ferro: “What is it that Chairman Powell did on Wednesday that you disagree with?” Mohamed El-Erian: “I said it contributed to undue market volatility. It’s the undue part -excessive market volatility. I think, [...]

December 2nd, 2022|

November 25, 2022: Market Thoughts

Greed and Fear. “Risk On” and “Risk Off.” “Markets will do what markets will do.” It’s not unreasonable to accept that today’s markets are simply following typical patterns. There’s nothing that remarkable about the current [...]

November 25th, 2022|

November 18, 2022: SBF, FTX and QE

An outlandish aberration, or a distressing sign of the times – and of what’s to come? Curious readers for centuries have been fascinated by the great 17th century Dutch Bubble. “At the peak of tulip [...]

November 18th, 2022|

November 4, 2022: Powell Building Credibility

The guy sounds like a discerning traditional central banker. Powell is an admirer of Paul Volcker’s fortitude, and he’s clearly drawing inspiration from the legendary Fed Chairman. Markets are growing impatient. It was a misstep [...]

November 4th, 2022|

October 28, 2022: Blinked

The S&P500 jumped 4.0% this week, boosting the index’s two-week rally to 8.9%. The small caps rose 6.0% (two-week gain 9.8%), with the average stock (Value Line Arithmetic) up 5.4% (two-week gain 9.6%). Ten-year Treasury [...]

October 29th, 2022|

October 21, 2022: Dissecting Chairman Xi

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this coming Thursday, October 27, at 4:00 pm Eastern/ 2:00 pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q3 recap conference call, “Prelude to a Market Accident.” Click here [...]

October 22nd, 2022|

October 14, 2022: New Cycle Realities

It would have been a nonevent; inconsequential. Confirming New Cycle Dynamics, the Truss government’s “mini budget” has unleashed absolute mayhem. Pension funds blowing up. Emergency central bank rescue operations. Global market instability. UK’s Treasury Secretary [...]

October 15th, 2022|

September 30, 2022: A Threatening Turn

Global de-risking/deleveraging has taken A Threatening Turn. It’s no exaggeration to write that the UK pension system was this week at the brink of spectacular collapse, with confidence in policy and market function hanging in [...]

October 1st, 2022|

September 23, 2022: Putin & The Vigilantes

It really got going Tuesday. Chinese “big four” bank CDS each surged about 10 bps, the largest single-session gains since the July 15th peak “risk off.” Heightened risk aversion was not limited to Chinese banks. [...]

September 24th, 2022|

September 16, 2022: Deflation and Policy Mistakes

Hotter-than-expected August CPI and quarterly options/derivatives expiration made for a toxic mix. “Core” CPI was reported up 0.6% for the month (7% annualized!), double estimates. With the peak inflation narrative having received the blessing of [...]

September 16th, 2022|

September 2, 2022: Super Credit Bubble

Global “Risk Off” gathers momentum by the week. Crisis Dynamics fester, as global central banks coalesce around a united front for battling inflation. The reality that central bankers will aggressively hike rates until something breaks [...]

September 3rd, 2022|

August 19, 2022: Inaugural Squeeze

It was in ways business as usual. “Risk off” had attained powerful momentum globally back in July. De-risking/deleveraging dynamics were increasingly fomenting illiquidity, contagion and instability across global markets. Bubbles were bursting. Derivatives-related selling was [...]

August 20th, 2022|

August 12, 2022: The Everything Squeeze

Wednesday’s CPI release was telling. July consumer price inflation data were somewhat better than forecasts. Instead of increasing 0.2%, headline CPI was flat for the month. “Core” prices rose 0.3%, less than the expected 0.5%. [...]

August 13th, 2022|
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