Weekly Commentary Archives

Weekly Commentary Archives2017-03-02T11:32:28-07:00

July 31, 2020: Precarious World

Another fascinating – if not comforting – week. A Friday Wall Street Journal headline: “Big Tech’s Embarrassment of Riches – Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google all show resilience during pandemic while undergoing congressional scrutiny.” Amazon, [...]

August 1st, 2020|

July 24, 2020: Crossing Red Lines

The Shanghai Composite traded as high as 3,382 during Tuesday trading, before reversing 5.5% lower to end the week at 3,192. The Shanghai Composite previously surged 16% over eight sessions (June 30th to July 9th), [...]

July 25th, 2020|

July 17, 2020: Drone Money

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this coming Thursday, July 23rd, at 4:00PM Eastern/ 2:00pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q2 recap conference call, “Confirmation of the Global [...]

July 18th, 2020|

July 10, 2020: Utmost Crazy

The Shanghai Composite surged 7.3% this week, increasing y-t-d gains to 10.9%. The CSI 300 rose 7.6%, with 2020 gains of 16.0%. China’s growth-oriented ChiNext Index’s 12.8% surge boosted year-to-date gains to 54.5%. Copper jumped [...]

July 11th, 2020|

July 3, 2020: Two Down, Two to Go

“U.S. Stocks Finish Best Quarter in More Than 20 Years” – yet another extraordinary period worthy of documenting in some detail. The S&P500 returned 20.5%, led by energy companies Halliburton (up 89.5%) and Marathon Oil [...]

July 4th, 2020|

June 26, 2020: More W than V

The much vaunted “V” recovery is improbable. To simplify, a somewhat “w”-looking scenario is a higher probability. After such an abrupt and extraordinary collapse in economic activity, a decent bounce was virtually assured. Millions would [...]

June 27th, 2020|

June 19, 2020: Update COVID-19

Can we even attempt a reasonable discussion? Someone’s got this wrong. June 12 – Reuters (Judy Hua, Cate Cadell, Winni Zhou and Andrew Galbraith): “A Beijing district put itself on a ‘wartime’ footing and the [...]

June 20th, 2020|

May 22, 2020: Just the Facts

For the Week: The S&P500 rallied 3.2% (down 8.5% y-t-d), and the Dow rose 3.3% (down 14.3%). The Utilities gained 2.8% (down 12.2%). The Banks jumped 5.9% (down 40%), and the Broker/Dealers rose 5.0% (down [...]

May 22nd, 2020|

May 15, 2020: Global Bubbles are Deflating

“Bubble” is commonly understood to describe a divergence between overvalued market prices and underlying asset values. And while price anomalies are a typical consequence, they are generally not among the critical aspects of Bubbles. I’ll [...]

May 16th, 2020|

May 8, 2020: Schumpeter’s Business Cycle Analysis

The work of the great economist Joseph Schumpeter (1883-1950) has always resonated. When I ponder analytical frameworks pertinent to these extraordinary times, none are more germane than Schumpeter’s Business Cycle Analysis. Best known for “creative [...]

May 9th, 2020|

May 1, 2020: Going Nuclear

In a CBB from a decade or so ago, I noted that at the commencement of WWII President Roosevelt marshaled an agreement from the major warring parties to avoid the bombing of civilian targets. It [...]

May 2nd, 2020|

April 24, 2020: Fault Lines

Now on a weekly basis, we’re witnessing things that couldn’t happen – actually happen. April 20 – Bloomberg (Catherine Ngai, Olivia Raimonde, and Alex Longley): “Of all the wild, unprecedented swings in financial markets since [...]

April 24th, 2020|

April 17, 2020: Crazy, Dangerous Things

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this coming Thursday, April 23rd, at 4:00PM Eastern/ 2:00pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q1 recap conference call, “Managing Short Exposure in an Unprecedented Environment” Click here [...]

April 18th, 2020|

April 10, 2020: When Money Died

Sitting at the dinner table, our eleven-year old son inquired: “If a big meteor was about to hit the earth, how much money would the Fed print?” I complimented his sense of humor. Yet it [...]

April 11th, 2020|

April 3, 2020: The King of Sovereign Subprime

The past week witnessed 6.6 million new U.S. unemployment claims, pushing the two-week surge to a sickening almost 10 million. The U.S. economy is sliding into the steepest of downturns, with awful consequences for society, [...]

April 4th, 2020|

March 27, 2020: The Solvency Problem

Being an analyst of Credit and Bubbles over the past few decades has come with its share of challenges. Greater challenges await. I expect to dedicate the rest of my life to defending Capitalism. One [...]

March 28th, 2020|
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