Weekly Commentary Archives

Dr. Bernanke has referred to the understanding of the forces behind the Great Depression as the “Holy Grail of Economics.” But was the Great Depression chiefly the consequence of post-crash policy mistakes, as conventional thinking [...]

For the Week: The S&P500 gained 1.0% (up 25.3% y-t-d), and the Dow added 0.6% (up 20.3%). The Utilities were unchanged (up 19.0%). The Banks added 0.4% (up 27.9%), and the Broker/Dealers jumped 2.1% (up [...]

Last week from The Institute of International Finance (IIF) (a summary from a members-only report): “Global debt has topped $250 billion – 320% of GDP: emerging market debt hits a new record of $71.4 trillion [...]

We shouldn’t read too much into one month. With a holiday week, October is typically a sluggish period for lending in China. But at $88 billion, the growth in Aggregate Financing was about a third [...]

M2 money supply has increased $796 billion y-t-d to $15.245 TN. With two months to go, 2019 M2 growth is on track to easily exceed 2016’s record $854 billion expansion. Recent M2 growth is nothing [...]

October non-farm payrolls expanded a stronger-than-expected 128,000 (estimate 85k), in a month when the GM strike reduced payroll growth by upwards of 42,000 and another 20,000 positions were lost to a shrinking census workforce. September’s [...]

Any central bank head that passes through an eight-year term without once raising rates has some explaining to do. To leave monetary policy extremely loose for such an extended period comes with major consequences (can [...]

I’ve held the view that Chinese finance has been at the epicenter of international market unease. The U.S./China trade war was not the predominant global risk. However, it has had the potential to become a [...]

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany Thursday, October 17th, at 4:00PM Eastern/ 2:00pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q3 recap conference call, “Managing Short-Side ‘Beta’ in an Extraordinary Environment.” Click here to register. [...]

This week’s disappointing ISM reports dominated business headlines: “US Manufacturing Survey Shows Worst Reading in a Decade.” “U.S. Factory Gauge Hits 10-Year Low as World Slowdown Widens.” “U.S. Manufacturers Experience Worst Month Since 2007-2009 Great Recession.” [...]

Non-Financial Debt (NFD) expanded $408 billion during Q1 to a record $53.015 TN. This was down from Q1’s $765 billion expansion. On a seasonally-adjusted and annualized (SAAR) basis, Q2 NFD growth slowed to $1.652 TN [...]

September 20 – Wall Street Journal (Daniel Kruger): “The Federal Reserve Bank of New York will offer to add at least $75 billion daily to the financial system through Oct. 10, prolonging its efforts to [...]

For the Week: The S&P500 gained 1.0% (up 20.0% y-t-d), and the Dow rose 1.6% (up 16.7%). The Utilities were unchanged (up 18.8%). The Banks surged 7.8% (up 18.8%), and the Broker/Dealers jumped 5.2% (up [...]

After an extraordinary August, markets are showing no inclination for stability to begin September. Jumping 1.3% Thursday on news of an October restart of trade talks, the S&P500 gained 1.8% [...]

What a fascinating environment; each week bringing something extraordinary. Yet there is this dreadful feeling that things are advancing toward some type of cataclysm. “U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war with China keeps undermining the [...]

August 23 – Reuters (Se Young Lee and Judy Hua): “China said on Friday it will impose retaliatory tariffs against about $75 billion worth of U.S. goods, putting as much as an extra 10% on [...]

The Chinese Credit machine sputtered in July. Growth in Total Aggregate Financing dropped to $144 billion, almost 40% below consensus estimates. This was less than half of June’s $320 billion increase and the slowest expansion [...]

In the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) Monday daily currency value “fixing,” the yuan/renminbi was set 0.33% weaker (vs. dollar) at 6.9225. Market reaction was immediate and intense. The Chinese currency quickly traded to 7.03 [...]

Twenty-four hours that confounded – as well as clarified. Chairman Powell has, again, been widely criticized for his messaging. With the markets and President Trump breathing down his neck, he’s been in a no-win situation. [...]

The Federal Reserve abandoned “data dependent” – at least for next week’s FOMC meeting. December futures imply a 1.78% Fed funds rate, up six bps for the week but still 62 bps below today’s 2.40% [...]