Weekly Commentary Archives

Weekly Commentary Archives2017-03-02T11:32:28-07:00

January 8, 2021: Issues 2021

Fragility. Last year exposed myriad fragilities. The U.S. stock market went from all-time highs to an emergency FOMC meeting in ten sessions. The S&P500 lost more than a third of its value in just 21 [...]

January 9th, 2021|

January 1, 2021: 2020 Year in Review

Over 350,000 Americans dead, with the Covid death toll projected to rise another 150,000 by the end of January. Confirmed Covid cases have exceeded 20 million (84 million globally), ending 2020 with new U.S. infections [...]

January 2nd, 2021|

December 25, 2020: Just the Facts

For the Week: The S&P500 slipped 0.2% (up 14.6% y-t-d), while the Dow was little changed (up 5.8%). The Utilities declined 0.9% (down 2.9%). The Banks jumped 3.1% (down 15.0%), and the Broker/Dealers gained 1.9% [...]

December 25th, 2020|

December 18, 2020: $10.275 TN in Nine Months

Federal Reserve Assets surged $120 billion last week to a record $7.363 TN. Fed Assets inflated $3.593 TN, or 95%, over the past 66 weeks. M2 “money” supply surged $228 billion in this week’s report [...]

December 19th, 2020|

December 4, 2020: Monetary Disorder In Extremis

November non-farm payrolls gained 245,000, only about half the mean forecast – and down from October’s 610,000. It was the weakest job growth since April’s employment debacle. U.S. equities rallied on the disappointing news. A [...]

December 5th, 2020|

November 20, 2020: Scorched Earth

November 18 – Reuters (Rodrigo Campos): “Global debt is expected to soar to a record $277 trillion by the end of the year as governments and companies continue to spend in response to the COVID-19 [...]

November 21st, 2020|

November 6, 2020: Critical Juncture

We’ve grown accustomed to the “new normal”: Stock market ebullience even as the country suffers through a distressing confluence of hardships. The S&P500 surged 7.3% this week, the strongest weekly advance since April. Though the [...]

November 7th, 2020|

October 30, 2020: Very Dangerous

We’re now only a few days from the most pivotal of elections. Meanwhile, new U.S. Covid infections have surged to pandemic highs (Friday surpassing 100,000 on worldometers), with the virus running rampant throughout the country. [...]

October 31st, 2020|

October 23, 2020: The New Massive

A most pivotal election is now only 10 days away. Joe Biden has a commanding lead in the polls. Moreover, betting sites are indicating rising odds of the Democrats taking control of the Senate (PredictIt: [...]

October 24th, 2020|

October 16, 2020: Moral Hazard Pinnacle

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this Thursday, October 22nd, at 4:00pm Eastern/ 2:00pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q3 recap conference call, “Managing Short Exposure in Extreme Uncertainty.” Click here to register. [...]

October 17th, 2020|

October 9, 2020: Weird

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany Thursday, October 22nd, at 4:00PM Eastern/ 2:00pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q3 recap conference call, “Managing Short Exposure in Extreme Uncertainty.” Click here to register. The [...]

October 10th, 2020|

October 2, 2020: COVID Uncertainties

It significantly raises the stakes for a potential nightmare scenario: with less than five weeks until election day, the President contracts COVID-19. As if this election cycle wasn’t chaotic enough. As CNN put it: “A [...]

October 3rd, 2020|

September 11, 2020: State-Directed Credit Splurge

New data released Friday confirm ongoing historic Chinese Credit excess. Total Aggregate Financing increased (a ridiculous) $524 billion during August to $40.5 TN, doubling July’s growth and exceeding estimates by almost 40%. It was the [...]

September 12th, 2020|

September 4, 2020: Summer of 2020

QE fundamentally changed finance. What commenced at the Federal Reserve with a post-mortgage finance Bubble, $1 TN Treasury buying operation morphed into open-ended purchases of Treasuries, MBS, corporate bonds and even corporate ETFs holding high-yield [...]

September 5th, 2020|
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