Weekly Commentary Archives

Weekly Commentary Archives2017-03-02T11:32:28-07:00

April 9, 2021: Keeping the Dance Party Rolling

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany a week from Thursday, April 22nd, at 4:00 pm Eastern/ 2:00 pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q1 recap conference call, “Contemplating an Inflection Point.” Click here [...]

April 10th, 2021|

Archegos and Ponzi Finance

I’ve been a longtime enthusiast for Hyman Minky’s analysis. His work plays prominently in my analytical framework. Financial structures evolve over time, and there is an innate propensity for this evolution to regress into a [...]

April 3rd, 2021|

March 26, 2021: Double Trouble

March 1 – Daily Sabah: “Turkey’s economy grew a less-than-expected but still robust 5.9% in the fourth quarter of 2020 and 1.8% in the year as a whole…, emerging as one of only a few [...]

March 27th, 2021|

March 19, 2021: Powell on Inflation

The Treasury yield spike runs unabated. Ten-year Treasury yields rose another 10 bps this week to 1.72%, the high since January 23, 2020. The Treasury five-year “breakeven” inflation rate rose [...]

March 20th, 2021|

February 26, 2021: Paradigm Change

Ten-year Treasury yields closed out a tumultuous week at 1.41% bps, pulling back after Thursday’s spike to a one-year high 1.61%. Ten-year Treasury yields are now up 49 bps from the start of the year [...]

February 27th, 2021|

February 19, 2021: Wrecking Ball

I give it my best shot each week. My hope is to provide pertinent insight, though the overarching objective is to scrupulously chronicle this extraordinary period in history. Like other great Bubbles and manias, looking [...]

February 20th, 2021|

February 12, 2021:The Short but Momentous History of Fed QE

Central banking traditionally operated as a judicious and conservative institution, with an overarching mandate focused on promoting monetary and financial stability. Historically, recognition that missteps can impart such profound societal hardship necessitated an incremental and [...]

February 13th, 2021|

February 5, 2021: That’s on Them

GameStop collapsed 80% this week, with Express and AMC Entertainment down 48%, Vaxart 36%, and Siebert Financial 31%. Riches have been made and lost. Wealth was redistributed – and count [...]

February 6th, 2021|

January 29, 2021: The Great 2021 Squeeze Mania

Yet another week for the history books. For posterity: GameStop gained 400%, AMC Entertainment 278%, Express 235%, Siebert Financial 122%, Cel-Sci 75%, Novavax 74%, Vaxart 68%, Fulgent Genetics 60%, Vir Biotechnology 59%, National Beverage 54%, [...]

January 30th, 2021|

January 22, 2021: Short-Term Unsustainable

Outstanding Treasury Securities began 2008 at $6.051 TN, or 41% of GDP. Treasuries ended 2019 at $19.019 TN, or 87% of GDP. And then, in only three quarters, Treasuries surged another $3.882 TN to $22.900 [...]

January 23rd, 2021|

January 8, 2021: Issues 2021

Fragility. Last year exposed myriad fragilities. The U.S. stock market went from all-time highs to an emergency FOMC meeting in ten sessions. The S&P500 lost more than a third of its value in just 21 [...]

January 9th, 2021|

January 1, 2021: 2020 Year in Review

Over 350,000 Americans dead, with the Covid death toll projected to rise another 150,000 by the end of January. Confirmed Covid cases have exceeded 20 million (84 million globally), ending 2020 with new U.S. infections [...]

January 2nd, 2021|

December 25, 2020: Just the Facts

For the Week: The S&P500 slipped 0.2% (up 14.6% y-t-d), while the Dow was little changed (up 5.8%). The Utilities declined 0.9% (down 2.9%). The Banks jumped 3.1% (down 15.0%), and the Broker/Dealers gained 1.9% [...]

December 25th, 2020|

December 18, 2020: $10.275 TN in Nine Months

Federal Reserve Assets surged $120 billion last week to a record $7.363 TN. Fed Assets inflated $3.593 TN, or 95%, over the past 66 weeks. M2 “money” supply surged $228 billion in this week’s report [...]

December 19th, 2020|

December 4, 2020: Monetary Disorder In Extremis

November non-farm payrolls gained 245,000, only about half the mean forecast – and down from October’s 610,000. It was the weakest job growth since April’s employment debacle. U.S. equities rallied on the disappointing news. A [...]

December 5th, 2020|
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