January 15, 2021: The Reality of Financial Dominance
Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this Thursday, January 21st, at 4:00pm Eastern/ 2:00pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q4 recap conference call, “Managing in a Mania.” Click [...]
January 8, 2021: Issues 2021
Fragility. Last year exposed myriad fragilities. The U.S. stock market went from all-time highs to an emergency FOMC meeting in ten sessions. The S&P500 lost more than a third of its value in just 21 [...]
January 1, 2021: 2020 Year in Review
Over 350,000 Americans dead, with the Covid death toll projected to rise another 150,000 by the end of January. Confirmed Covid cases have exceeded 20 million (84 million globally), ending 2020 with new U.S. infections [...]
December 25, 2020: Just the Facts
For the Week: The S&P500 slipped 0.2% (up 14.6% y-t-d), while the Dow was little changed (up 5.8%). The Utilities declined 0.9% (down 2.9%). The Banks jumped 3.1% (down 15.0%), and the Broker/Dealers gained 1.9% [...]
December 18, 2020: $10.275 TN in Nine Months
Federal Reserve Assets surged $120 billion last week to a record $7.363 TN. Fed Assets inflated $3.593 TN, or 95%, over the past 66 weeks. M2 “money” supply surged $228 billion in this week’s report [...]
December 11, 2020: Unnecessary Head Scratching: Q3 2020 Z.1
Airbnb traded to $165 in early Thursday trading, more than doubling its Wednesday evening $68 IPO price – valuing the company north of $100 billion. After pricing its IPO shares [...]
December 4, 2020: Monetary Disorder In Extremis
November non-farm payrolls gained 245,000, only about half the mean forecast – and down from October’s 610,000. It was the weakest job growth since April’s employment debacle. U.S. equities rallied on the disappointing news. A [...]
November 27, 2020: Pondering the New Treasury Secretary
The U.S. Goods Trade Deficit jumped to a then record $76 billion back in July 2008. A few short months later, financial chaos unleashed the “great recession” economic crisis. Traditionally, large trade deficits are evidence [...]
November 20, 2020: Scorched Earth
November 18 – Reuters (Rodrigo Campos): “Global debt is expected to soar to a record $277 trillion by the end of the year as governments and companies continue to spend in response to the COVID-19 [...]
November 13, 2020: Well, That’s Some Weird… Stuff
The “average stock” Value Line Arithmetic Index jumped 6.4% for the week. The NYSE Arca Oil Index surged 19.8%, with the Philadelphia Oil Services Index up 17.4%. The KWB Bank Index rose 11.5%, as the [...]
November 6, 2020: Critical Juncture
We’ve grown accustomed to the “new normal”: Stock market ebullience even as the country suffers through a distressing confluence of hardships. The S&P500 surged 7.3% this week, the strongest weekly advance since April. Though the [...]
October 30, 2020: Very Dangerous
We’re now only a few days from the most pivotal of elections. Meanwhile, new U.S. Covid infections have surged to pandemic highs (Friday surpassing 100,000 on worldometers), with the virus running rampant throughout the country. [...]
October 23, 2020: The New Massive
A most pivotal election is now only 10 days away. Joe Biden has a commanding lead in the polls. Moreover, betting sites are indicating rising odds of the Democrats taking control of the Senate (PredictIt: [...]
October 16, 2020: Moral Hazard Pinnacle
Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this Thursday, October 22nd, at 4:00pm Eastern/ 2:00pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q3 recap conference call, “Managing Short Exposure in Extreme Uncertainty.” Click here to register. [...]
October 9, 2020: Weird
Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany Thursday, October 22nd, at 4:00PM Eastern/ 2:00pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q3 recap conference call, “Managing Short Exposure in Extreme Uncertainty.” Click here to register. The [...]
October 2, 2020: COVID Uncertainties
It significantly raises the stakes for a potential nightmare scenario: with less than five weeks until election day, the President contracts COVID-19. As if this election cycle wasn’t chaotic enough. As CNN put it: “A [...]
September 25, 2020: Extraordinary Q2 2020 Z.1 Flow of Funds
The numbers are just monstrous. The Fed’s own data illuminate the historic Monetary Disorder that today runs wild. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Treasuries. Debt and Equities Securities. The banking system. The Household balance sheet. [...]
September 18, 2020: Revisiting “Coin in the Fuse Box”
September 17 – Wall Street Journal (Greg Ip): “Can words take the place of actions? The Federal Reserve hopes so. On Wednesday it issued a policy statement promising to get inflation above 2%. In their [...]
September 11, 2020: State-Directed Credit Splurge
New data released Friday confirm ongoing historic Chinese Credit excess. Total Aggregate Financing increased (a ridiculous) $524 billion during August to $40.5 TN, doubling July’s growth and exceeding estimates by almost 40%. It was the [...]
September 4, 2020: Summer of 2020
QE fundamentally changed finance. What commenced at the Federal Reserve with a post-mortgage finance Bubble, $1 TN Treasury buying operation morphed into open-ended purchases of Treasuries, MBS, corporate bonds and even corporate ETFs holding high-yield [...]