Weekly Commentary Archives2017-03-02T11:32:28+00:00

August 17, 2018: Instability

With the Turkish lira down another 6.6% in Monday trading, global “Risk Off” market instability was turning acute. The U.S. dollar index jumped to an almost 14-month high Monday, as the Turkish lira, Argentine peso, [...]

August 17th, 2018|

August 10, 2018: Turkey (Nudged Over the Cliff)

The Turkish lira sank 13.7% in chaotic Friday trading. The lira’s 21.0% “worst week in 17 years” collapse pushed y-t-d losses to 41.1%. Turkish 10-year yields spiked to almost 21%, before retreating somewhat. After beginning [...]

August 11th, 2018|

July 27, 2018: Latent Fragilities

I have a rather simple Bubble definition: “A self-reinforcing but inevitably unsustainable inflation.” Most Bubble discussions center on the deflating rather than the inflating phase. A focus of my analysis [...]

July 27th, 2018|

July 20, 2018: Intimidate Nobody

Strangely perhaps, but late in the week my thoughts returned to James Carville’s 1992 comment: “I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope [...]

July 21st, 2018|

June 29, 2018: A Decisive Quarter

June 29 – Financial Times (Peter Wells): “The buck is back. Tighter domestic monetary policy and global trade turmoil have set the US dollar for its best quarterly performance since [...]

June 30th, 2018|

June 22, 2018: Performance Chase

The Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100, small cap Russell 2000, Value Line Arithmetic and the NYSE Arca Biotechnology were among U.S. indices trading to all-time highs during Wednesday’s session. In the real world, there is escalating [...]

June 23rd, 2018|

June 15, 2018: The Great Fallacy

A big week in the world of monetary management: The Federal Reserve raised rates 25 bps, the ECB announced plans to wind down its historic QE program, and the Bank of Japan clung to its [...]

June 16th, 2018|

June 8, 2018: Q1 2018 Z.1 Flow of Funds

The first-quarter 2018 Z.1 “flow of funds” report can be viewed in two ways. From one perspective, key conventional data are un-extraordinary. Household debt expanded at a 3.3% rate during the quarter, down from Q4’s [...]

June 8th, 2018|

June 1, 2018: Italian Drama

As I see it, cracks are opening in the greatest Bubble of all time. Serious fissures have developed in EM, Europe and China. Meanwhile, the stimulus-driven U.S. economic boom runs unabated. Global fragilities place downward [...]

June 2nd, 2018|

May 25, 2018: Unfolding Instability Thesis

Interestingly, financial crises over the ages have often unfolded during autumn. Early economic thinkers pondered and debated the sources of instability and the root cause of recurring economic cycles. Even in relatively primitive economic systems, [...]

May 26th, 2018|

May 18, 2018: Crisis Watch

Where to begin? Contagion… The Argentine peso dropped another 5.0% this week, bringing y-t-d losses to 23.7%. The Turkish lira fell 3.9%, boosting 2018 losses to 15.4%. As notable, the Brazilian real dropped 3.7% (down [...]

May 19th, 2018|

May 11, 2018: Disequilibrium

Much to the consternation of our allies, President Trump withdraws from the Iran nuclear deal. WTI crude adds another 1.5% (up 17% y-t-d) this week to the high since November 2014. Iran and Israel moved [...]

May 11th, 2018|

May 4, 2018: Old Roach Motel

One hundred and six months. The current expansion, having emerged in the aftermath of the collapse of the mortgage finance Bubble, is now the second-longest on record (lagging only the 120-month 1990’s Bubble period). The [...]

May 5th, 2018|

April 27, 2018: Conventional Wisdom

Conventional Wisdom is so often proved wrong. Thinking back over my career, it’s amazing how many times what is believed true without a doubt in the markets turns out completely erroneous. There’s no mystery behind [...]

April 27th, 2018|

April 20, 2018: Recalling 1994

Equities rallied to begin the week. With Syrian missile strikes more limited than feared and no military response from Russia, there was immediate impetus to unwind hedges. That it was option expiration week ensured plenty [...]

April 20th, 2018|

April 13, 2018: Bizarre and Ominous

Please join me and David McAlvany for the MWM Tactical Short Second-Quarter 2018 Conference Call: “Market Structure, Trump Tariffs, Higher Rates… Markets at a Precipice?” Thursday, April 19th, at 4:30pm [...]

April 14th, 2018|

April 6, 2018: Market Realities

Please join me and David McAlvany for the MWM Tactical Short Second-Quarter 2018 Conference Call: “Market Structure, Trump Tariffs, Higher Rates… Markets at a Precipice?” Thursday, April 19th, at 4:30pm EST (2:30pm MST): Click here to [...]

April 6th, 2018|
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