Weekly Commentary Archives2017-03-02T11:32:28-07:00

July 1, 2022: Pondering Modern-Day Runs

“In 1939, a brief proposal auspiciously titled ‘A Program for Monetary Reform’ was circulated among economists in the United States. Written in the wake of The Great Depression by a group of prominent American economists [...]

July 1st, 2022|

June 24, 2022: Calm Before the Storm

Is the market bottom in, or is this more a replay of the fleeting Q1 quarter-end bear market rally? Is the “fix in” for European bonds? Does Kuroda’s foolhardy cling to “whatever it takes” buy [...]

June 25th, 2022|

June 17, 2022: Bursting Bubbles and Failed Experiments

We’re striving for context and perspective. In this incredible environment, feelings of insecurity and apprehension are inescapable. But we can work hard to minimize confusion. A Bubble: “A self-reinforcing but inevitably unsustainable inflation.” An Experiment: [...]

June 18th, 2022|

June 10, 2022: Breaking and the Q1 2022 Z.1

No mincing words; no need for sophisticated prose. The week was ugly. Things look bad. There are elements similar to the year 2000 bursting of the “Dot-com” Bubble. There are parallels to the much more [...]

June 11th, 2022|

June 3, 2022: Hurricane Peerless

The week arguably offered some clarity on key facets of today’s murky financial, economic and policy backdrops. At this point, the U.S. economy is anything but falling off a cliff. A stronger-than-expected 390,000 jobs were [...]

June 4th, 2022|

May 27, 2022: Inflation Acquiescence

A headline this week from National Review: “The Fed’s Half-Hearted War on Inflation – It has the power, but does it have the will?” Is the Fed all inflation bark and no bite? After all, [...]

May 28th, 2022|

May 20, 2022: More on the New Cycle

The thesis is one of secular change – an extraordinary multi-decade Bubble period transitioning (in a highly destabilizing manner) to a most uncertain New Cycle. Historical perspective is crucial. May 19 – Bloomberg (Steve Matthews): [...]

May 21st, 2022|

May 13, 2022: The Acceleration Phase

Global Bubble deflation gathered additional momentum this week. The U.S./global tech Bubble collapse accelerated. Hit by panic “runs”, the historic cryptocurrency mania is coming completely unglued. And even more historic Chinese apartment, financial and economic [...]

May 14th, 2022|

May 6, 2022: Global Quagmire

The Global Bubble, several decades in the making, is in the process of bursting. A new cycle is emerging, replete with extraordinary uncertainties. Acute instability has become a permanent feature, at least through the cycle [...]

May 7th, 2022|

April 29, 2022: Collision Course

The Shanghai Composite sank 5.1% Monday, fell another 1.4% Tuesday, rallied 2.5% Wednesday, increased 0.6% Thursday, and then rose 2.4% Friday – with the wild week’s 1.3% decline boosting y-t-d losses to 16.3%. If that [...]

April 30th, 2022|

April 22, 2022: Losing Capacity to Stabilize

It was an important week – perhaps critical. There was additional support for my macro thesis. The bottom line: increasingly unstable global markets today face extreme uncertainty, arguably the greatest array of uncertainties in decades. [...]

April 23rd, 2022|

April 15, 2022: Transitioning to a New Cycle

Something snapped. Ten-year Treasury yields jumped another 12 bps this week, with a two-week gain of 44 bps. At 2.83%, 10-year yields ended the week at the high since December 2018. Thirty-year Treasuries yields surged [...]

April 15th, 2022|

April 8, 2022: Playing with Fire

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this coming Thursday, April 14th, at 4:00 pm Eastern/ 2:00 pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q1 recap conference call, “Instability 2022: Inflation, War and China.” Click [...]

April 9th, 2022|

April 1, 2022: Historic Q1 2022

Historic Q1 2022. Inflation, a Hawkish Fed, Spiking Bond Yields, War, China and Acute Instability. Where to begin? “Inflation Hits a New 40-year High.” “Bond Market Suffers Worst Quarter in Decades.” “Commodities Finish Best Quarter [...]

April 2nd, 2022|

March 25, 2022: The Big Test

It’s been some time since the Fed commenced a serious tightening cycle. Previous moves to raise rates progressed gingerly, so as not to risk upsetting the cherished stock market. One has to go back to [...]

March 26th, 2022|

March 18, 2022: Inklings of Secular Change

The S&P500 was about unchanged Wednesday at 2:36 pm ET, six minutes into Chair Powell’s press conference opening statement. “We will need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook.” A [...]

March 19th, 2022|

March 11, 2022: Ugly – and the Q4 2021 Z.1

March 11 – Reuters (Steve Holland and Susan Heavey): “President Joe Biden… took new steps along with U.S. allies to punish Russia economically over its invasion of Ukraine, targeting trade and shutting down development funds [...]

March 12th, 2022|

March 4, 2022: Day Nine

On Day Two, it was pretty clear that Day One developments were history-changing. Here at Day Nine, there’s absolutely no doubt. Between Day Two and Day Nine, the situation has deteriorated beyond what anyone thought [...]

March 5th, 2022|

February 25, 2022: Honor

February 25 – Associated Press (Yuras Karmanau, Jim Heintz, Vladimir Isachenkov, Dasha Litvinova): “Russian troops stormed toward Ukraine’s capital early Saturday, and street fighting broke out as city officials urged residents to take shelter. The [...]

February 26th, 2022|

February 18, 2022: Made the Decision

Bubbles are sustained only by ever increasing amounts of Credit. The most pernicious Bubbles are those fueled by “money” – perceived safe and liquid Credit instruments. Bubbles are mechanisms of wealth redistribution and destruction. Structural [...]

February 19th, 2022|
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