Weekly Commentary Archives

Weekly Commentary Archives2017-03-02T11:32:28-07:00

March 27, 2020: The Solvency Problem

Being an analyst of Credit and Bubbles over the past few decades has come with its share of challenges. Greater challenges await. I expect to dedicate the rest of my life to defending Capitalism. One [...]

March 28th, 2020|

March 13, 2020: Loss of Moneyness

It was as if global markets pulled elements from the 1994 bond market dislocation, 1997’s Asian Bubble collapses, the 1998 Russian/LTCM fiasco, and the 2008 market crash – and synthesized them for a week of [...]

March 14th, 2020|

March 6, 2020: The Modern-Day Bank Run

Pondering the shallowness of analyses being espoused by the vast majority of market pundits, I’m compelled to frame a thesis to help explain today’s most extraordinary backdrop. The coronavirus outbreak will eventually pass, though I [...]

March 7th, 2020|

February 28, 2020: Hair of the Dog

“U.S. Stocks Tumble 11% in Worst Week Since Crisis,” read the Friday evening Bloomberg headline. A Wall Street Journal caption asked the apt question: “U.S. Stocks Were at Records Last Week. What Happened?” A Friday [...]

February 29th, 2020|

February 21, 2020: Pandemic Risk Rising

Coronavirus cases in China surpassed 76,000. Deaths have reached 2,345. The number of new cases has slowed markedly, perhaps owing to repeated changes in the methodology of counting infections. Developments elsewhere are less encouraging. Plans [...]

February 22nd, 2020|

February 14, 2020: One Extraordinary Year

Confirmed coronavirus cases almost doubled over the past week to 67,000. Part of the spike was the result of including a group diagnosed through CT imaging scans rather than with typical coronavirus testing. The ballooning [...]

February 15th, 2020|

February 7, 2020: Dr. Li Wenliang

The S&P500 rallied 3.2% this week (trading to all-time highs Thursday), more than reversing (by 1.5 times) the previous week’s 2.1% decline. Ten-year Treasury yields rebounded as well, yet the eight bps rise was less [...]

February 8th, 2020|

January 31, 2020: The First Major Pandemic Scare

January 31 – Bloomberg: “Chinese officials took issue with U.S. comments about the country’s response to the coronavirus outbreak, and promised they would bring the infection under control. ‘U.S. comments are inconsistent with the facts [...]

February 1st, 2020|

January 17, 2020: “This is Insane”

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this coming Thursday, January 23rd, at 4:00PM Eastern/ 2:00pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q4 recap conference call, “Surviving an Equities Melt Up” Click here to register. [...]

January 17th, 2020|

January 10, 2020: Issues 2020

When I began posting the CBB in 1999, I expected “Bubble” to be in the title for no longer than a year or two. It was to be the “Credit Bulletin,” inspired by Benjamin Anderson’s [...]

January 11th, 2020|

January 3, 2020: 2019 in Review

It cannot be overstated: Bubbles are of paramount importance – for markets, finance more generally, economies, and social and geopolitical stability. Two U.S. bursting episodes over the past twenty years would seem to make this [...]

January 4th, 2020|

December 27, 2019: Just the Facts

For the Week: The S&P500 added 0.6% (up 29.2% y-t-d), and the Dow increased 0.7% (up 22.8%). The Utilities slipped 0.3% (up 22.2%). The Banks added 0.3% (up 32.3%), while the Broker/Dealers declined 0.8% (up [...]

December 27th, 2019|

Q3 2019 Z.1 Flow of Funds: Repo Madness

Q3 was yet another fascinating quarter for U.S. finance. Total Credit (Non-Financial, Financial and Foreign U.S. borrowings) jumped a nominal $1.075 TN, the strongest quarterly gain since Q4 2007’s $1.159 TN, ending September at $74.862 [...]

December 14th, 2019|

December 6, 2019: Crazy Extremis

Dr. Bernanke has referred to the understanding of the forces behind the Great Depression as the “Holy Grail of Economics.” But was the Great Depression chiefly the consequence of post-crash policy mistakes, as conventional thinking [...]

December 7th, 2019|

November 29, 2019: Just the Facts

For the Week: The S&P500 gained 1.0% (up 25.3% y-t-d), and the Dow added 0.6% (up 20.3%). The Utilities were unchanged (up 19.0%). The Banks added 0.4% (up 27.9%), and the Broker/Dealers jumped 2.1% (up [...]

November 29th, 2019|

November 22, 2019: Weak Link

Last week from The Institute of International Finance (IIF) (a summary from a members-only report): “Global debt has topped $250 billion – 320% of GDP: emerging market debt hits a new record of $71.4 trillion [...]

November 23rd, 2019|

November 15, 2019: China Update

We shouldn’t read too much into one month. With a holiday week, October is typically a sluggish period for lending in China. But at $88 billion, the growth in Aggregate Financing was about a third [...]

November 16th, 2019|
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