Weekly Commentary Archives2017-03-02T11:32:28+00:00

October 12, 2018: Rude Awakening Coming

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this Thursday, October 18th at 4:00PM EST/ 2:00pm MST for the Tactical Short Q3 recap conference call, “Market Contagion is Back.” Click here [...]

October 12th, 2018|

September 21, 2018: Q2 2018 Z.1 Flow of Funds

Non-Financial Debt (NFD) expanded at a seasonally-adjusted and annualized rate (SAAR) of $2.283 TN during the second quarter. While this was down from Q1’s booming SAAR $3.681 TN, it nonetheless puts first-half Credit growth at [...]

September 21st, 2018|

September 16, 2018: Just the Facts

For the Week: The S&P500 gained 1.2% (up 8.7% y-t-d), and the Dow added 0.9% (up 5.8%). The Utilities increased 0.4% (up 1.9%). The Banks dropped 2.1% (up 0.8%), and the Broker/Dealers added 0.3% (up [...]

September 16th, 2018|

August 31, 2018: Unassailable

I’ve been here before and, candidly, it’s not much fun. Lodged in my mind this week was the brilliant quote from the 19th century German philosopher Arthur Schopenhauer: “All truth passes through three stages: First, [...]

August 31st, 2018|

August 17, 2018: Instability

With the Turkish lira down another 6.6% in Monday trading, global “Risk Off” market Instability was turning acute. The U.S. dollar index jumped to an almost 14-month high Monday, as the Turkish lira, Argentine peso, [...]

August 17th, 2018|

August 10, 2018: Turkey (Nudged Over the Cliff)

The Turkish lira sank 13.7% in chaotic Friday trading. The lira’s 21.0% “worst week in 17 years” collapse pushed y-t-d losses to 41.1%. Turkish 10-year yields spiked to almost 21%, before retreating somewhat. After beginning [...]

August 11th, 2018|

July 27, 2018: Latent Fragilities

I have a rather simple Bubble definition: “A self-reinforcing but inevitably unsustainable inflation.” Most Bubble discussions center on the deflating rather than the inflating phase. A focus of my analysis [...]

July 27th, 2018|

July 20, 2018: Intimidate Nobody

Strangely perhaps, but late in the week my thoughts returned to James Carville’s 1992 comment: “I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope [...]

July 21st, 2018|

June 29, 2018: A Decisive Quarter

June 29 – Financial Times (Peter Wells): “The buck is back. Tighter domestic monetary policy and global trade turmoil have set the US dollar for its best quarterly performance since [...]

June 30th, 2018|

June 22, 2018: Performance Chase

The Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100, small cap Russell 2000, Value Line Arithmetic and the NYSE Arca Biotechnology were among U.S. indices trading to all-time highs during Wednesday’s session. In the real world, there is escalating [...]

June 23rd, 2018|

June 15, 2018: The Great Fallacy

A big week in the world of monetary management: The Federal Reserve raised rates 25 bps, the ECB announced plans to wind down its historic QE program, and the Bank of Japan clung to its [...]

June 16th, 2018|

June 8, 2018: Q1 2018 Z.1 Flow of Funds

The first-quarter 2018 Z.1 “flow of funds” report can be viewed in two ways. From one perspective, key conventional data are un-extraordinary. Household debt expanded at a 3.3% rate during the quarter, down from Q4’s [...]

June 8th, 2018|

June 1, 2018: Italian Drama

As I see it, cracks are opening in the greatest Bubble of all time. Serious fissures have developed in EM, Europe and China. Meanwhile, the stimulus-driven U.S. economic boom runs unabated. Global fragilities place downward [...]

June 2nd, 2018|
Load More Posts

Copyrighted Image