Weekly Commentary Archives

It was a fascinating set up. A pivotal FOMC meeting two days ahead of quarterly “quadruple witch” expiration of options and other derivatives. Option expiration-related volatility used to be largely [...]

Total Non-Financial Debt (NFD) expanded $879 billion during Q1 to a record $62.032 TN. NFD expanded an unprecedented $7.671 TN, or 14.1%, over the past five quarters. And with Financial [...]

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls increased 559,000 in May, about double April’s 278,000 gain, but still below the 675,000 consensus forecast. Average Hourly Earnings rose a stronger-than-expected 0.5% for the month, with back-to-back robust monthly earnings gains [...]

It’s perhaps the greatest issue confronting today’s global markets. It didn’t work in the U.S. in the late-twenties. Arguably, it was an unmitigated disaster. Beijing has begun moving more aggressively to rein in speculative excess, [...]

For the Week: The S&P500 slipped 0.4% (up 10.6% y-t-d), and the Dow declined 0.5% (up 11.8%). The Utilities added 0.4% (up 4.7%). The Banks fell 1.0% (up 35.1%), and the Broker/Dealers declined 1.2% (up [...]

A big week on the inflation front. April CPI was reported up 0.8% versus estimates of 0.2%. And while the 4.2% y-o-y increase was partly a function of the year ago negative CPI prints, it’s [...]

There is an overarching issue I haven’t been able to get off my mind: Are we at the beginning of something new or in the waning days of the previous multi-decade cycle? May 5 – [...]

“I’m not sure why they think they know that it’s transitory. How do they know that when there’s plenty of money printing that’s been going on and we’ve seen commodity prices going up really massively? [...]

Not again. Bloomberg is referring to “the bond market riddle.” The Financial Times went with the headline, “US Government Bond Investors Left Bewildered by ‘Bonkers’ Market Move.” It’s been three weeks of declining Treasury yields [...]

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this Thursday, April 22nd, at 4:00 pm Eastern/ 2:00 pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q1 recap conference call, “Contemplating an Inflection Point.” Click here to register. [...]

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany a week from Thursday, April 22nd, at 4:00 pm Eastern/ 2:00 pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q1 recap conference call, “Contemplating an Inflection Point.” Click here [...]

I’ve been a longtime enthusiast for Hyman Minky’s analysis. His work plays prominently in my analytical framework. Financial structures evolve over time, and there is an innate propensity for this evolution to regress into a [...]

March 1 – Daily Sabah: “Turkey’s economy grew a less-than-expected but still robust 5.9% in the fourth quarter of 2020 and 1.8% in the year as a whole…, emerging as one of only a few [...]

The Treasury yield spike runs unabated. Ten-year Treasury yields rose another 10 bps this week to 1.72%, the high since January 23, 2020. The Treasury five-year “breakeven” inflation rate rose [...]

I received a friendly email a few weeks back from a reader inquiring whether my analysis is Fact or opinion. Well, it’s my opinion that the world is in the “Terminal Phase” of history’s greatest [...]

It was another unsettled week for notably synchronized global markets. The week began with a decent bout of hope. The S&P500 rallied 2.8% in Monday trading, “its strongest one-day gain [...]

Ten-year Treasury yields closed out a tumultuous week at 1.41% bps, pulling back after Thursday’s spike to a one-year high 1.61%. Ten-year Treasury yields are now up 49 bps from the start of the year [...]

I give it my best shot each week. My hope is to provide pertinent insight, though the overarching objective is to scrupulously chronicle this extraordinary period in history. Like other great Bubbles and manias, looking [...]

Central banking traditionally operated as a judicious and conservative institution, with an overarching mandate focused on promoting monetary and financial stability. Historically, recognition that missteps can impart such profound societal hardship necessitated an incremental and [...]

GameStop collapsed 80% this week, with Express and AMC Entertainment down 48%, Vaxart 36%, and Siebert Financial 31%. Riches have been made and lost. Wealth was redistributed – and count [...]