Weekly Commentary Archives

“In 1939, a brief proposal auspiciously titled ‘A Program for Monetary Reform’ was circulated among economists in the United States. Written in the wake of The Great Depression by a group of prominent American economists [...]

Is the market bottom in, or is this more a replay of the fleeting Q1 quarter-end bear market rally? Is the “fix in” for European bonds? Does Kuroda’s foolhardy cling to “whatever it takes” buy [...]

We’re striving for context and perspective. In this incredible environment, feelings of insecurity and apprehension are inescapable. But we can work hard to minimize confusion. A Bubble: “A self-reinforcing but inevitably unsustainable inflation.” An Experiment: [...]

No mincing words; no need for sophisticated prose. The week was ugly. Things look bad. There are elements similar to the year 2000 bursting of the “Dot-com” Bubble. There are parallels to the much more [...]

The week arguably offered some clarity on key facets of today’s murky financial, economic and policy backdrops. At this point, the U.S. economy is anything but falling off a cliff. A stronger-than-expected 390,000 jobs were [...]

A headline this week from National Review: “The Fed’s Half-Hearted War on Inflation – It has the power, but does it have the will?” Is the Fed all inflation bark and no bite? After all, [...]

The thesis is one of secular change – an extraordinary multi-decade Bubble period transitioning (in a highly destabilizing manner) to a most uncertain New Cycle. Historical perspective is crucial. May 19 – Bloomberg (Steve Matthews): [...]

Global Bubble deflation gathered additional momentum this week. The U.S./global tech Bubble collapse accelerated. Hit by panic “runs”, the historic cryptocurrency mania is coming completely unglued. And even more historic Chinese apartment, financial and economic [...]

The Global Bubble, several decades in the making, is in the process of bursting. A new cycle is emerging, replete with extraordinary uncertainties. Acute instability has become a permanent feature, at least through the cycle [...]

The Shanghai Composite sank 5.1% Monday, fell another 1.4% Tuesday, rallied 2.5% Wednesday, increased 0.6% Thursday, and then rose 2.4% Friday – with the wild week’s 1.3% decline boosting y-t-d losses to 16.3%. If that [...]

It was an important week – perhaps critical. There was additional support for my macro thesis. The bottom line: increasingly unstable global markets today face extreme uncertainty, arguably the greatest array of uncertainties in decades. [...]

Something snapped. Ten-year Treasury yields jumped another 12 bps this week, with a two-week gain of 44 bps. At 2.83%, 10-year yields ended the week at the high since December 2018. Thirty-year Treasuries yields surged [...]

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this coming Thursday, April 14th, at 4:00 pm Eastern/ 2:00 pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q1 recap conference call, “Instability 2022: Inflation, War and China.” Click [...]

Historic Q1 2022. Inflation, a Hawkish Fed, Spiking Bond Yields, War, China and Acute Instability. Where to begin? “Inflation Hits a New 40-year High.” “Bond Market Suffers Worst Quarter in Decades.” “Commodities Finish Best Quarter [...]

It’s been some time since the Fed commenced a serious tightening cycle. Previous moves to raise rates progressed gingerly, so as not to risk upsetting the cherished stock market. One has to go back to [...]

The S&P500 was about unchanged Wednesday at 2:36 pm ET, six minutes into Chair Powell’s press conference opening statement. “We will need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook.” A [...]

March 11 – Reuters (Steve Holland and Susan Heavey): “President Joe Biden… took new steps along with U.S. allies to punish Russia economically over its invasion of Ukraine, targeting trade and shutting down development funds [...]

On Day Two, it was pretty clear that Day One developments were history-changing. Here at Day Nine, there’s absolutely no doubt. Between Day Two and Day Nine, the situation has deteriorated beyond what anyone thought [...]

February 25 – Associated Press (Yuras Karmanau, Jim Heintz, Vladimir Isachenkov, Dasha Litvinova): “Russian troops stormed toward Ukraine’s capital early Saturday, and street fighting broke out as city officials urged residents to take shelter. The [...]

Bubbles are sustained only by ever increasing amounts of Credit. The most pernicious Bubbles are those fueled by “money” – perceived safe and liquid Credit instruments. Bubbles are mechanisms of wealth redistribution and destruction. Structural [...]