Weekly Commentary Archives

Weekly Commentary Archives2017-03-02T11:32:28-06:00

August 16, 2019: Comeuppance

The Chinese Credit machine sputtered in July. Growth in Total Aggregate Financing dropped to $144 billion, almost 40% below consensus estimates. This was less than half of June’s $320 billion increase and the slowest expansion [...]

August 16th, 2019|

August 9, 2019: “Hot Money” Watch

In the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) Monday daily currency value “fixing,” the yuan/renminbi was set 0.33% weaker (vs. dollar) at 6.9225. Market reaction was immediate and intense. The Chinese currency quickly traded to 7.03 [...]

August 10th, 2019|

August 2, 2019: Trump’s China Tariff Tweets

Twenty-four hours that confounded – as well as clarified. Chairman Powell has, again, been widely criticized for his messaging. With the markets and President Trump breathing down his neck, he’s been in a no-win situation. [...]

August 3rd, 2019|

July 26, 2019: Fanning the Flames

The Federal Reserve abandoned “data dependent” – at least for next week’s FOMC meeting. December futures imply a 1.78% Fed funds rate, up six bps for the week but still 62 bps below today’s 2.40% [...]

July 27th, 2019|

July 19, 2019: Living Life at the ZLB

There must be members of the FOMC feeling they are about to be railroaded into a 50 bps cut a week from Wednesday. Chairman Powell essentially pre-committed to a reduction last week in testimony before [...]

July 20th, 2019|

July 12, 2019: Central Banker to the World

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany next Thursday, July 18th, at 4:00PM EST/ 2:00pm MST for the Tactical Short Q2 recap conference call, “What’s Behind the Global Yield Collapse?” Click here to register. July [...]

July 13th, 2019|

July 5, 2019: Abject Monetary Disorder

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany Thursday, July 18th, at 4:00PM EST/ 2:00pm MST for the Tactical Short Q2 recap conference call, “What’s Behind the Global Yield Collapse?” Click here to register. A market [...]

July 6th, 2019|

June 28, 2019: History Rhymes

President Trump and President Xi are meeting in Osaka as I write. We’ll know much more in the morning. Pre-meeting reports had the two sides agreeing to a “truce.” Heading into the meeting, President Trump [...]

June 29th, 2019|

June 14, 2019: Q1 2019 Z.1 “Flow of Funds”

Total Non-Financial Debt (NFD) expanded (nominal) $721 billion (strongest growth since Q2 ’18) during the quarter to a record $52.579 TN. NFD expanded $2.504 TN, or 5.0%, year-on-year. For perspective, annual NFD growth averaged $1.602 [...]

June 15th, 2019|

June 7, 2019: Horde of Jumbo Bazookas

“Stocks Eye Best Week of 2019 on ‘Powell Put’ Bets,” read the Friday Bloomberg headline. By the close of Friday trading, the S&P500 had posted a gain of 4.4% (“best week since November”). Also from [...]

June 8th, 2019|

May 31, 2019: So Much for the Trump Put

So Much for the “Trump Put.” May 31 – Bloomberg (Felice Maranz): “President Trump’s promise to impose tariffs on goods until Mexico halts a flow of undocumented immigrants is being panned by analysts and economists… [...]

June 1st, 2019|

May 10, 2019: Deal or No Deal

What went wrong? Clearly, all the positive talk from both the U.S. and China painted a much too rosy picture of trade negotiation progress. From the Wall Street Journal (Lingling Wei and Bob Davis): “The [...]

May 11th, 2019|

May 3, 2019: Transitory Histrionics

May 3 – Financial Times (Sam Fleming): “Having lamented low inflation as one of the great challenges facing central bankers today in March, Jay Powell on Wednesday wrongfooted many investors with comments that seemed to [...]

May 3rd, 2019|

April 19, 2019: Full Capitulation

April 16 – Bloomberg (Rich Miller and Craig Torres): “Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues have made an important shift in their strategy for dealing with inflation in a prelude to what could [...]

April 20th, 2019|

April 12, 2019: The Perils of Stop and Go

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this Thursday, April 18th, at 4:00PM EST/ 2:00pm MST for the Tactical Short Q1 recap conference call, “What are Central Banks Afraid of?” Click here to register. China’s [...]

April 13th, 2019|

April 5, 2019: Faux Statesmanship

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany Thursday, April 18th, at 4:00PM EST/ 2:00pm MST for the Tactical Short Q1 recap conference call, “What are Central Banks Afraid of?” Click here to register. April 5 [...]

April 6th, 2019|
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