Weekly Commentary Archives

Weekly Commentary Archives2017-03-02T11:32:28-07:00

December 6, 2019: Crazy Extremis

Dr. Bernanke has referred to the understanding of the forces behind the Great Depression as the “Holy Grail of Economics.” But was the Great Depression chiefly the consequence of post-crash policy mistakes, as conventional thinking [...]

December 7th, 2019|

November 29, 2019: Just the Facts

For the Week: The S&P500 gained 1.0% (up 25.3% y-t-d), and the Dow added 0.6% (up 20.3%). The Utilities were unchanged (up 19.0%). The Banks added 0.4% (up 27.9%), and the Broker/Dealers jumped 2.1% (up [...]

November 29th, 2019|

November 22, 2019: Weak Link

Last week from The Institute of International Finance (IIF) (a summary from a members-only report): “Global debt has topped $250 billion – 320% of GDP: emerging market debt hits a new record of $71.4 trillion [...]

November 23rd, 2019|

November 15, 2019: China Update

We shouldn’t read too much into one month. With a holiday week, October is typically a sluggish period for lending in China. But at $88 billion, the growth in Aggregate Financing was about a third [...]

November 16th, 2019|

November 1, 2019: Music to the Markets

October non-farm payrolls expanded a stronger-than-expected 128,000 (estimate 85k), in a month when the GM strike reduced payroll growth by upwards of 42,000 and another 20,000 positions were lost to a shrinking census workforce. September’s [...]

November 1st, 2019|

October 18, 2019: China Watch

I’ve held the view that Chinese finance has been at the epicenter of international market unease. The U.S./China trade war was not the predominant global risk. However, it has had the potential to become a [...]

October 18th, 2019|

October 4, 2019: Resurrecting M2

This week’s disappointing ISM reports dominated business headlines: “US Manufacturing Survey Shows Worst Reading in a Decade.” “U.S. Factory Gauge Hits 10-Year Low as World Slowdown Widens.” “U.S. Manufacturers Experience Worst Month Since 2007-2009 Great Recession.” [...]

October 4th, 2019|

September 27, 2019: Q2 2019 Z.1 and Repos

Non-Financial Debt (NFD) expanded $408 billion during Q1 to a record $53.015 TN. This was down from Q1’s $765 billion expansion. On a seasonally-adjusted and annualized (SAAR) basis, Q2 NFD growth slowed to $1.652 TN [...]

September 28th, 2019|

September 20, 2019: No Coincidences

September 20 – Wall Street Journal (Daniel Kruger): “The Federal Reserve Bank of New York will offer to add at least $75 billion daily to the financial system through Oct. 10, prolonging its efforts to [...]

September 21st, 2019|

September 14, 2019: Just the Facts

For the Week: The S&P500 gained 1.0% (up 20.0% y-t-d), and the Dow rose 1.6% (up 16.7%). The Utilities were unchanged (up 18.8%). The Banks surged 7.8% (up 18.8%), and the Broker/Dealers jumped 5.2% (up [...]

September 14th, 2019|

August 30, 2019: Dudley Sticks His Neck Out

What a fascinating environment; each week bringing something extraordinary. Yet there is this dreadful feeling that things are advancing toward some type of cataclysm. “U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war with China keeps undermining the [...]

August 31st, 2019|

August 16, 2019: Comeuppance

The Chinese Credit machine sputtered in July. Growth in Total Aggregate Financing dropped to $144 billion, almost 40% below consensus estimates. This was less than half of June’s $320 billion increase and the slowest expansion [...]

August 16th, 2019|

August 9, 2019: “Hot Money” Watch

In the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) Monday daily currency value “fixing,” the yuan/renminbi was set 0.33% weaker (vs. dollar) at 6.9225. Market reaction was immediate and intense. The Chinese currency quickly traded to 7.03 [...]

August 10th, 2019|

August 2, 2019: Trump’s China Tariff Tweets

Twenty-four hours that confounded – as well as clarified. Chairman Powell has, again, been widely criticized for his messaging. With the markets and President Trump breathing down his neck, he’s been in a no-win situation. [...]

August 3rd, 2019|

July 26, 2019: Fanning the Flames

The Federal Reserve abandoned “data dependent” – at least for next week’s FOMC meeting. December futures imply a 1.78% Fed funds rate, up six bps for the week but still 62 bps below today’s 2.40% [...]

July 27th, 2019|
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