Weekly Commentary Archives2017-03-02T11:32:28-07:00

November 25, 2022: Market Thoughts

Greed and Fear. “Risk On” and “Risk Off.” “Markets will do what markets will do.” It’s not unreasonable to accept that today’s markets are simply following typical patterns. There’s nothing that remarkable about the current [...]

November 25th, 2022|

November 18, 2022: SBF, FTX and QE

An outlandish aberration, or a distressing sign of the times – and of what’s to come? Curious readers for centuries have been fascinated by the great 17th century Dutch Bubble. “At the peak of tulip [...]

November 18th, 2022|

November 4, 2022: Powell Building Credibility

The guy sounds like a discerning traditional central banker. Powell is an admirer of Paul Volcker’s fortitude, and he’s clearly drawing inspiration from the legendary Fed Chairman. Markets are growing impatient. It was a misstep [...]

November 4th, 2022|

October 28, 2022: Blinked

The S&P500 jumped 4.0% this week, boosting the index’s two-week rally to 8.9%. The small caps rose 6.0% (two-week gain 9.8%), with the average stock (Value Line Arithmetic) up 5.4% (two-week gain 9.6%). Ten-year Treasury [...]

October 29th, 2022|

October 21, 2022: Dissecting Chairman Xi

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this coming Thursday, October 27, at 4:00 pm Eastern/ 2:00 pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q3 recap conference call, “Prelude to a Market Accident.” Click here [...]

October 22nd, 2022|

October 14, 2022: New Cycle Realities

It would have been a nonevent; inconsequential. Confirming New Cycle Dynamics, the Truss government’s “mini budget” has unleashed absolute mayhem. Pension funds blowing up. Emergency central bank rescue operations. Global market instability. UK’s Treasury Secretary [...]

October 15th, 2022|

September 30, 2022: A Threatening Turn

Global de-risking/deleveraging has taken A Threatening Turn. It’s no exaggeration to write that the UK pension system was this week at the brink of spectacular collapse, with confidence in policy and market function hanging in [...]

October 1st, 2022|

September 23, 2022: Putin & The Vigilantes

It really got going Tuesday. Chinese “big four” bank CDS each surged about 10 bps, the largest single-session gains since the July 15th peak “risk off.” Heightened risk aversion was not limited to Chinese banks. [...]

September 24th, 2022|

September 16, 2022: Deflation and Policy Mistakes

Hotter-than-expected August CPI and quarterly options/derivatives expiration made for a toxic mix. “Core” CPI was reported up 0.6% for the month (7% annualized!), double estimates. With the peak inflation narrative having received the blessing of [...]

September 16th, 2022|

September 2, 2022: Super Credit Bubble

Global “Risk Off” gathers momentum by the week. Crisis Dynamics fester, as global central banks coalesce around a united front for battling inflation. The reality that central bankers will aggressively hike rates until something breaks [...]

September 3rd, 2022|

August 19, 2022: Inaugural Squeeze

It was in ways business as usual. “Risk off” had attained powerful momentum globally back in July. De-risking/deleveraging dynamics were increasingly fomenting illiquidity, contagion and instability across global markets. Bubbles were bursting. Derivatives-related selling was [...]

August 20th, 2022|

August 12, 2022: The Everything Squeeze

Wednesday’s CPI release was telling. July consumer price inflation data were somewhat better than forecasts. Instead of increasing 0.2%, headline CPI was flat for the month. “Core” prices rose 0.3%, less than the expected 0.5%. [...]

August 13th, 2022|

July 29, 2022 – Just the Facts

For the Week: The S&P500 rallied 4.3% (down 13.3% y-t-d), and the Dow rose 3.0% (down 9.6%). The Utilities surged 6.4% (up 2.4%). The Banks gained 2.1% (down 18.0%), and the Broker/Dealers recovered 4.8% (down [...]

August 1st, 2022|

July 22, 2022: Nowhere to Hide

First vacation in a while, so coverage will be spotty for the next week or so. And I’ll try to finish up this week’s CBB news story extracts when I have a chance. Comments from [...]

July 23rd, 2022|

July 15, 2022: Global Crisis Dynamics Update

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this coming Thursday, July 21st, at 4:00 pm Eastern/ 2:00 pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q2 recap conference call, “Nowhere to Hide.” Click here to register. [...]

July 16th, 2022|
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