Weekly Commentary Archives

Weekly Commentary Archives2017-03-02T11:32:28-07:00

October 16, 2020: Moral Hazard Pinnacle

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this Thursday, October 22nd, at 4:00pm Eastern/ 2:00pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q3 recap conference call, “Managing Short Exposure in Extreme Uncertainty.” Click here to register. [...]

October 17th, 2020|

October 9, 2020: Weird

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany Thursday, October 22nd, at 4:00PM Eastern/ 2:00pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q3 recap conference call, “Managing Short Exposure in Extreme Uncertainty.” Click here to register. The [...]

October 10th, 2020|

October 2, 2020: COVID Uncertainties

It significantly raises the stakes for a potential nightmare scenario: with less than five weeks until election day, the President contracts COVID-19. As if this election cycle wasn’t chaotic enough. As CNN put it: “A [...]

October 3rd, 2020|

September 11, 2020: State-Directed Credit Splurge

New data released Friday confirm ongoing historic Chinese Credit excess. Total Aggregate Financing increased (a ridiculous) $524 billion during August to $40.5 TN, doubling July’s growth and exceeding estimates by almost 40%. It was the [...]

September 12th, 2020|

September 4, 2020: Summer of 2020

QE fundamentally changed finance. What commenced at the Federal Reserve with a post-mortgage finance Bubble, $1 TN Treasury buying operation morphed into open-ended purchases of Treasuries, MBS, corporate bonds and even corporate ETFs holding high-yield [...]

September 5th, 2020|

August 28, 2020: It’s About Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

The Wall Street Journal referred to a “a milestone” – “a major shift in how [the Fed] sets interest rates by dropping its longstanding practice of preemptively lifting them to head off higher inflation.” The [...]

August 29th, 2020|

August 21, 2020: Moral Hazard Quagmire

The Nasdaq100 (NDX) jumped another 3.5% this week, increasing 2020 gains to 32.3%. Amazon gained 4.3% during the week, boosting y-t-d gains to 77.8% – and market capitalization to $1.626 TN. Apple surged 8.2% this [...]

August 22nd, 2020|

August 7, 2020: Global Lender of Last Resort

Understandably, attention remains focused on the dominant U.S. tech stocks, record highs in Nasdaq, sector rotation opportunities, and the Robinhood phenomenon. It’s a mania, after all. There are as well stimulus negotiations and the administration’s [...]

August 8th, 2020|

July 31, 2020: Precarious World

Another fascinating – if not comforting – week. A Friday Wall Street Journal headline: “Big Tech’s Embarrassment of Riches – Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google all show resilience during pandemic while undergoing congressional scrutiny.” Amazon, [...]

August 1st, 2020|

July 24, 2020: Crossing Red Lines

The Shanghai Composite traded as high as 3,382 during Tuesday trading, before reversing 5.5% lower to end the week at 3,192. The Shanghai Composite previously surged 16% over eight sessions (June 30th to July 9th), [...]

July 25th, 2020|

July 17, 2020: Drone Money

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this coming Thursday, July 23rd, at 4:00PM Eastern/ 2:00pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q2 recap conference call, “Confirmation of the Global [...]

July 18th, 2020|

July 10, 2020: Utmost Crazy

The Shanghai Composite surged 7.3% this week, increasing y-t-d gains to 10.9%. The CSI 300 rose 7.6%, with 2020 gains of 16.0%. China’s growth-oriented ChiNext Index’s 12.8% surge boosted year-to-date gains to 54.5%. Copper jumped [...]

July 11th, 2020|

July 3, 2020: Two Down, Two to Go

“U.S. Stocks Finish Best Quarter in More Than 20 Years” – yet another extraordinary period worthy of documenting in some detail. The S&P500 returned 20.5%, led by energy companies Halliburton (up 89.5%) and Marathon Oil [...]

July 4th, 2020|

June 26, 2020: More W than V

The much vaunted “V” recovery is improbable. To simplify, a somewhat “w”-looking scenario is a higher probability. After such an abrupt and extraordinary collapse in economic activity, a decent bounce was virtually assured. Millions would [...]

June 27th, 2020|

June 19, 2020: Update COVID-19

Can we even attempt a reasonable discussion? Someone’s got this wrong. June 12 – Reuters (Judy Hua, Cate Cadell, Winni Zhou and Andrew Galbraith): “A Beijing district put itself on a ‘wartime’ footing and the [...]

June 20th, 2020|
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