Weekly Commentary Archives

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this Thursday, January 21st, at 4:00pm Eastern/ 2:00pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q4 recap conference call, “Managing in a Mania.” Click [...]

Fragility. Last year exposed myriad fragilities. The U.S. stock market went from all-time highs to an emergency FOMC meeting in ten sessions. The S&P500 lost more than a third of its value in just 21 [...]

Over 350,000 Americans dead, with the Covid death toll projected to rise another 150,000 by the end of January. Confirmed Covid cases have exceeded 20 million (84 million globally), ending 2020 with new U.S. infections [...]

For the Week: The S&P500 slipped 0.2% (up 14.6% y-t-d), while the Dow was little changed (up 5.8%). The Utilities declined 0.9% (down 2.9%). The Banks jumped 3.1% (down 15.0%), and the Broker/Dealers gained 1.9% [...]

Federal Reserve Assets surged $120 billion last week to a record $7.363 TN. Fed Assets inflated $3.593 TN, or 95%, over the past 66 weeks. M2 “money” supply surged $228 billion in this week’s report [...]

Airbnb traded to $165 in early Thursday trading, more than doubling its Wednesday evening $68 IPO price – valuing the company north of $100 billion. After pricing its IPO shares [...]

November non-farm payrolls gained 245,000, only about half the mean forecast – and down from October’s 610,000. It was the weakest job growth since April’s employment debacle. U.S. equities rallied on the disappointing news. A [...]

The U.S. Goods Trade Deficit jumped to a then record $76 billion back in July 2008. A few short months later, financial chaos unleashed the “great recession” economic crisis. Traditionally, large trade deficits are evidence [...]

November 18 – Reuters (Rodrigo Campos): “Global debt is expected to soar to a record $277 trillion by the end of the year as governments and companies continue to spend in response to the COVID-19 [...]

The “average stock” Value Line Arithmetic Index jumped 6.4% for the week. The NYSE Arca Oil Index surged 19.8%, with the Philadelphia Oil Services Index up 17.4%. The KWB Bank Index rose 11.5%, as the [...]

We’ve grown accustomed to the “new normal”: Stock market ebullience even as the country suffers through a distressing confluence of hardships. The S&P500 surged 7.3% this week, the strongest weekly advance since April. Though the [...]

We’re now only a few days from the most pivotal of elections. Meanwhile, new U.S. Covid infections have surged to pandemic highs (Friday surpassing 100,000 on worldometers), with the virus running rampant throughout the country. [...]

A most pivotal election is now only 10 days away. Joe Biden has a commanding lead in the polls. Moreover, betting sites are indicating rising odds of the Democrats taking control of the Senate (PredictIt: [...]

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this Thursday, October 22nd, at 4:00pm Eastern/ 2:00pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q3 recap conference call, “Managing Short Exposure in Extreme Uncertainty.” Click here to register. [...]

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany Thursday, October 22nd, at 4:00PM Eastern/ 2:00pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q3 recap conference call, “Managing Short Exposure in Extreme Uncertainty.” Click here to register. The [...]

It significantly raises the stakes for a potential nightmare scenario: with less than five weeks until election day, the President contracts COVID-19. As if this election cycle wasn’t chaotic enough. As CNN put it: “A [...]

The numbers are just monstrous. The Fed’s own data illuminate the historic Monetary Disorder that today runs wild. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Treasuries. Debt and Equities Securities. The banking system. The Household balance sheet. [...]

September 17 – Wall Street Journal (Greg Ip): “Can words take the place of actions? The Federal Reserve hopes so. On Wednesday it issued a policy statement promising to get inflation above 2%. In their [...]

New data released Friday confirm ongoing historic Chinese Credit excess. Total Aggregate Financing increased (a ridiculous) $524 billion during August to $40.5 TN, doubling July’s growth and exceeding estimates by almost 40%. It was the [...]

QE fundamentally changed finance. What commenced at the Federal Reserve with a post-mortgage finance Bubble, $1 TN Treasury buying operation morphed into open-ended purchases of Treasuries, MBS, corporate bonds and even corporate ETFs holding high-yield [...]