Weekly Commentary Archives

Weekly Commentary Archives2017-03-02T11:32:28-07:00

September 10, 2021: Necessarily Aggressive

The Wall Street Journal ran with the headline “What if China’s Property Crackdown Goes Overboard Too?” for its Tuesday’s “Heard of the Street” article. A Bloomberg piece went with “China Property Crackdown Alarms Analysts as [...]

September 11th, 2021|

September 3, 2021: Easy Money Anesthesia

China’s historic Bubble has been integral to CBB analysis for two decades. I’ve on a weekly basis chronicled how interconnected Chinese and the U.S. Bubbles worked in harmony to inflate one epic global Bubble. Loose [...]

September 4th, 2021|

August 27, 2021: Bigger Mistakes

August 27, 2021: Bloomberg Wall Street Week’s David Westin: “Larry, you saw, you read what Jay Powell said [in his Jackson Hole speech]. What was your reaction?” Larry Summers: “I was glad to see him [...]

August 28th, 2021|

August 13, 2021: Uncertainty

We shouldn’t read too much into one month of weak Chinese Credit data. July’s growth in Aggregate Financing (system Credit) slumped to $164 billion, almost 40% below estimates, and down from June’s booming $566 billion [...]

August 14th, 2021|

August 6, 2021: Ebb and Flow

The U.S. economy created 943,000 jobs in July. With upward revisions, there were 938,000 positions added in June and 614,000 in May – for a notable three-month employment surge of almost 2.5 million. The Unemployment [...]

August 7th, 2021|

July 30, 2021: The King of Carry Trades

The Shanghai Composite sank 4.3% this week – and was down as much at 6.7% at intraday Wednesday lows. The Hang Seng China Financials Index was 5.7% lower intraday Wednesday, before closing the week down [...]

July 31st, 2021|

July 23, 2021: Dangerous Addiction

July 20 – Reuters (Karen Pierog): “Risk-off sentiment that drove Monday’s sell-off on Wall Street and rally in U.S. Treasuries widened credit spreads on corporate bonds to multi-month highs. The spread on the ICE BofA [...]

July 24th, 2021|

July 16, 2021: Under Fire

The week had an ominous feel. Ten-year Treasury yields dropped another seven bps to 1.29% – completely disregarding much stronger-than-expected reports on consumer and producer prices, along with inflation expectations. German bund yields fell another [...]

July 17th, 2021|

July 9, 2021: Beijing Flinches

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany Thursday, July 15th, at 4:00 pm Eastern/ 2:00 pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q2 recap conference call, “Updating the Bubble Thesis.” [...]

July 10th, 2021|

June 18, 2021: Heels Dislodged

It was a fascinating set up. A pivotal FOMC meeting two days ahead of quarterly “quadruple witch” expiration of options and other derivatives. Option expiration-related volatility used to be largely [...]

June 19th, 2021|

June 4, 2021: Turned Tight

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls increased 559,000 in May, about double April’s 278,000 gain, but still below the 675,000 consensus forecast. Average Hourly Earnings rose a stronger-than-expected 0.5% for the month, with back-to-back robust monthly earnings gains [...]

June 5th, 2021|

May 28, 2021: The Wisdom of Benjamin Anderson

It’s perhaps the greatest issue confronting today’s global markets. It didn’t work in the U.S. in the late-twenties. Arguably, it was an unmitigated disaster. Beijing has begun moving more aggressively to rein in speculative excess, [...]

May 29th, 2021|

May 21, 2021: Just the Facts

For the Week: The S&P500 slipped 0.4% (up 10.6% y-t-d), and the Dow declined 0.5% (up 11.8%). The Utilities added 0.4% (up 4.7%). The Banks fell 1.0% (up 35.1%), and the Broker/Dealers declined 1.2% (up [...]

May 21st, 2021|

May 14, 2021: Un-Anchored

A big week on the inflation front. April CPI was reported up 0.8% versus estimates of 0.2%. And while the 4.2% y-o-y increase was partly a function of the year ago negative CPI prints, it’s [...]

May 15th, 2021|

April 30, 2021: Fed Guessing

“I’m not sure why they think they know that it’s transitory. How do they know that when there’s plenty of money printing that’s been going on and we’ve seen commodity prices going up really massively? [...]

May 1st, 2021|
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