Weekly Commentary Archives

Weekly Commentary Archives2017-03-02T11:32:28-07:00

January 14, 2022: Kaufman Knows Inflation

“U.S. Inflation Hits 39-Year High of 7%, Sets Stage for Fed Hike.” “Powell Makes Case for Fed Curbing Inflation While Doing No Harm.” “Federal Reserve Is on Top of Inflation, Powell Tells Congress.” “Powell Assures [...]

January 15th, 2022|

January 7, 2022: Issues 2022

Issue (singular) 2022. Is “money” (monetary inflation) more the solution or the problem? For a number of years now, I’ve highlighted in my January “Issues” pieces the Credit Bubble Maxim: [...]

January 8th, 2022|

December 31, 2021: 2021 Year in Review

Books will be written chronicling 2021. I’ll boil an extraordinary year’s developments down to a few simple words: “Things Ran Wild”. Covid ran wild. Monetary inflation ran wild. Inflation, in general, ran completely wild. Speculation [...]

January 1st, 2022|

December 24, 2021: Just the Facts

For the Week: The S&P500 rallied 2.3% (up 25.8% y-t-d), and the Dow rose 1.7% (up 17.5%). The Utilities were little changed (up 11.7%). The Banks gained 1.4% (up 34.1%), and the Broker/Dealers advanced 2.2% [...]

December 24th, 2021|

December 3, 2021: Walk the Walk

Senator Pat Toomey: “Mr. Powell, under the Fed’s new flexible average inflation targeting the inflation target remains at 2%… Core PCE, the Feds preferred inflation metric, is running above 2% over the past five years, [...]

December 4th, 2021|

November 26, 2021: Black Friday

I posted a link Thursday morning to a Bloomberg article, “New Coronavirus Variant a ‘Serious Concern’ in South Africa.” The seemingly small outbreak generated minimal media attention. Within 24 hours, however, global markets were in [...]

November 27th, 2021|

November 19, 2021: Trouble on the Horizon

November 19 – Reuters (Francois Murphy and Paul Carrel): “Austria will become the first country in western Europe to reimpose a full COVID-19 lockdown, it said on Friday as neighbouring Germany warned it may follow [...]

November 20th, 2021|

November 5, 2021: Dow 36,000 and Policy Mistakes

More evidence this week of a historic mania running unchecked. 1999 was crazy, but at least that mania was relatively contained within Internet and technology stocks. It wasn’t fueled by Trillions of central bank monetary [...]

November 6th, 2021|

October 29, 2021: Losing Control

Tesla’s market capitalization surpassed $1.1 TN this week, the first junk-rated company with a trillion-dollar valuation. Now the richest individual in the world, Elon Musk’s wealth this week reached a staggering $300 billion. The S&P500, [...]

October 30th, 2021|

October 15, 2021: Controllable

Now that was wild. Let’s start with the Chinese developers. Indicative of the more troubled companies, Kaisa Group bond yields surged to almost 51% in Wednesday trading, up from 36% to begin the week (20% [...]

October 16th, 2021|

October 8, 2021: Contagion

Another big miss for non-farm payrolls, with September’s 194,000 jobs gain less than half the 500,000 forecast. But with the Unemployment Rate down to 4.8% and Average Hourly Earnings up 4.6% y-o-y (not to mention [...]

October 9th, 2021|

October 1, 2021: Inflation Watch

August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rose to 4.3% y-o-y, the largest gain in 30 years. The S&P CoreLogic National Composite Home Price Index posted a 19.7% y-o-y gain in July – the strongest housing [...]

October 2nd, 2021|

September 17, 2021: Evergrande Moment

Evergrande owes over $300 billion – to banks and non-bank financial institutions, domestic and international bond holders, suppliers and apartment buyers. It has bank borrowings of $90 billion, including from Agricultural Bank of China, China [...]

September 18th, 2021|

September 10, 2021: Necessarily Aggressive

The Wall Street Journal ran with the headline “What if China’s Property Crackdown Goes Overboard Too?” for its Tuesday’s “Heard of the Street” article. A Bloomberg piece went with “China Property Crackdown Alarms Analysts as [...]

September 11th, 2021|
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