Weekly Commentary Archives

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany Thursday, January 27th, at 4:00 pm Eastern/ 2:00 pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q4 recap conference call, “Things Went Wild. Now What?” Click here to register. [...]

“U.S. Inflation Hits 39-Year High of 7%, Sets Stage for Fed Hike.” “Powell Makes Case for Fed Curbing Inflation While Doing No Harm.” “Federal Reserve Is on Top of Inflation, Powell Tells Congress.” “Powell Assures [...]

Issue (singular) 2022. Is “money” (monetary inflation) more the solution or the problem? For a number of years now, I’ve highlighted in my January “Issues” pieces the Credit Bubble Maxim: [...]

Books will be written chronicling 2021. I’ll boil an extraordinary year’s developments down to a few simple words: “Things Ran Wild”. Covid ran wild. Monetary inflation ran wild. Inflation, in general, ran completely wild. Speculation [...]

For the Week: The S&P500 rallied 2.3% (up 25.8% y-t-d), and the Dow rose 1.7% (up 17.5%). The Utilities were little changed (up 11.7%). The Banks gained 1.4% (up 34.1%), and the Broker/Dealers advanced 2.2% [...]

The Fed doubled monthly taper to $30 billion, which, if uninterrupted, will wind down QE by the FOMC’s March 17th meeting. The S&P500 briskly popped 1.6% on the news. In response to the market jump, [...]

In such an extraordinary environment, I’ll take note of two of this week’s developments. China – in an about-face – implemented policy easing measures, cutting reserve requirements and announcing a loosening of property finance. This [...]

Senator Pat Toomey: “Mr. Powell, under the Fed’s new flexible average inflation targeting the inflation target remains at 2%… Core PCE, the Feds preferred inflation metric, is running above 2% over the past five years, [...]

I posted a link Thursday morning to a Bloomberg article, “New Coronavirus Variant a ‘Serious Concern’ in South Africa.” The seemingly small outbreak generated minimal media attention. Within 24 hours, however, global markets were in [...]

November 19 – Reuters (Francois Murphy and Paul Carrel): “Austria will become the first country in western Europe to reimpose a full COVID-19 lockdown, it said on Friday as neighbouring Germany warned it may follow [...]

Bloomberg Television’s Jonathan Ferro (November 12, 2021): “You wrote a scathing piece in the Financial Times this week. I want to start with a quote from it: ‘Failure to act promptly would turn the Fed’s [...]

More evidence this week of a historic mania running unchecked. 1999 was crazy, but at least that mania was relatively contained within Internet and technology stocks. It wasn’t fueled by Trillions of central bank monetary [...]

Tesla’s market capitalization surpassed $1.1 TN this week, the first junk-rated company with a trillion-dollar valuation. Now the richest individual in the world, Elon Musk’s wealth this week reached a staggering $300 billion. The S&P500, [...]

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this coming Thursday, October 28th, at 4:00 pm Eastern/ 2:00 pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q3 recap conference call, “China and [...]

Now that was wild. Let’s start with the Chinese developers. Indicative of the more troubled companies, Kaisa Group bond yields surged to almost 51% in Wednesday trading, up from 36% to begin the week (20% [...]

Another big miss for non-farm payrolls, with September’s 194,000 jobs gain less than half the 500,000 forecast. But with the Unemployment Rate down to 4.8% and Average Hourly Earnings up 4.6% y-o-y (not to mention [...]

August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rose to 4.3% y-o-y, the largest gain in 30 years. The S&P CoreLogic National Composite Home Price Index posted a 19.7% y-o-y gain in July – the strongest housing [...]

It was a rather glaring warning. Yet it was, of course, taken as just another buying opportunity – a rather easy one at that. It seems to only get easier. September 22 – Bloomberg: “China [...]

Evergrande owes over $300 billion – to banks and non-bank financial institutions, domestic and international bond holders, suppliers and apartment buyers. It has bank borrowings of $90 billion, including from Agricultural Bank of China, China [...]

The Wall Street Journal ran with the headline “What if China’s Property Crackdown Goes Overboard Too?” for its Tuesday’s “Heard of the Street” article. A Bloomberg piece went with “China Property Crackdown Alarms Analysts as [...]