April 9, 2021: Keeping the Dance Party Rolling
Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany a week from Thursday, April 22nd, at 4:00 pm Eastern/ 2:00 pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q1 recap conference call, “Contemplating an Inflection Point.” Click here [...]
Archegos and Ponzi Finance
I’ve been a longtime enthusiast for Hyman Minky’s analysis. His work plays prominently in my analytical framework. Financial structures evolve over time, and there is an innate propensity for this evolution to regress into a [...]
March 26, 2021: Double Trouble
March 1 – Daily Sabah: “Turkey’s economy grew a less-than-expected but still robust 5.9% in the fourth quarter of 2020 and 1.8% in the year as a whole…, emerging as one of only a few [...]
March 19, 2021: Powell on Inflation
The Treasury yield spike runs unabated. Ten-year Treasury yields rose another 10 bps this week to 1.72%, the high since January 23, 2020. The Treasury five-year “breakeven” inflation rate rose [...]
March 12, 2021: Let the Facts Speak: Q4 2020 Z.1
I received a friendly email a few weeks back from a reader inquiring whether my analysis is Fact or opinion. Well, it’s my opinion that the world is in the “Terminal Phase” of history’s greatest [...]
March 5, 2021: De-Risking/ Deleveraging at the Periphery
It was another unsettled week for notably synchronized global markets. The week began with a decent bout of hope. The S&P500 rallied 2.8% in Monday trading, “its strongest one-day gain [...]
February 26, 2021: Paradigm Change
Ten-year Treasury yields closed out a tumultuous week at 1.41% bps, pulling back after Thursday’s spike to a one-year high 1.61%. Ten-year Treasury yields are now up 49 bps from the start of the year [...]
February 19, 2021: Wrecking Ball
I give it my best shot each week. My hope is to provide pertinent insight, though the overarching objective is to scrupulously chronicle this extraordinary period in history. Like other great Bubbles and manias, looking [...]
February 12, 2021:The Short but Momentous History of Fed QE
Central banking traditionally operated as a judicious and conservative institution, with an overarching mandate focused on promoting monetary and financial stability. Historically, recognition that missteps can impart such profound societal hardship necessitated an incremental and [...]
February 5, 2021: That’s on Them
GameStop collapsed 80% this week, with Express and AMC Entertainment down 48%, Vaxart 36%, and Siebert Financial 31%. Riches have been made and lost. Wealth was redistributed – and count [...]
January 29, 2021: The Great 2021 Squeeze Mania
Yet another week for the history books. For posterity: GameStop gained 400%, AMC Entertainment 278%, Express 235%, Siebert Financial 122%, Cel-Sci 75%, Novavax 74%, Vaxart 68%, Fulgent Genetics 60%, Vir Biotechnology 59%, National Beverage 54%, [...]
January 22, 2021: Short-Term Unsustainable
Outstanding Treasury Securities began 2008 at $6.051 TN, or 41% of GDP. Treasuries ended 2019 at $19.019 TN, or 87% of GDP. And then, in only three quarters, Treasuries surged another $3.882 TN to $22.900 [...]
January 15, 2021: The Reality of Financial Dominance
Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this Thursday, January 21st, at 4:00pm Eastern/ 2:00pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q4 recap conference call, “Managing in a Mania.” Click [...]
January 8, 2021: Issues 2021
Fragility. Last year exposed myriad fragilities. The U.S. stock market went from all-time highs to an emergency FOMC meeting in ten sessions. The S&P500 lost more than a third of its value in just 21 [...]
January 1, 2021: 2020 Year in Review
Over 350,000 Americans dead, with the Covid death toll projected to rise another 150,000 by the end of January. Confirmed Covid cases have exceeded 20 million (84 million globally), ending 2020 with new U.S. infections [...]
December 25, 2020: Just the Facts
For the Week: The S&P500 slipped 0.2% (up 14.6% y-t-d), while the Dow was little changed (up 5.8%). The Utilities declined 0.9% (down 2.9%). The Banks jumped 3.1% (down 15.0%), and the Broker/Dealers gained 1.9% [...]
December 18, 2020: $10.275 TN in Nine Months
Federal Reserve Assets surged $120 billion last week to a record $7.363 TN. Fed Assets inflated $3.593 TN, or 95%, over the past 66 weeks. M2 “money” supply surged $228 billion in this week’s report [...]
December 11, 2020: Unnecessary Head Scratching: Q3 2020 Z.1
Airbnb traded to $165 in early Thursday trading, more than doubling its Wednesday evening $68 IPO price – valuing the company north of $100 billion. After pricing its IPO shares [...]
December 4, 2020: Monetary Disorder In Extremis
November non-farm payrolls gained 245,000, only about half the mean forecast – and down from October’s 610,000. It was the weakest job growth since April’s employment debacle. U.S. equities rallied on the disappointing news. A [...]
November 27, 2020: Pondering the New Treasury Secretary
The U.S. Goods Trade Deficit jumped to a then record $76 billion back in July 2008. A few short months later, financial chaos unleashed the “great recession” economic crisis. Traditionally, large trade deficits are evidence [...]