Weekly Commentary Archives

Weekly Commentary Archives2017-03-02T11:32:28-07:00

January 17, 2020: “This is Insane”

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this coming Thursday, January 23rd, at 4:00PM Eastern/ 2:00pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q4 recap conference call, “Surviving an Equities Melt Up” Click here to register. [...]

January 17th, 2020|

January 10, 2020: Issues 2020

When I began posting the CBB in 1999, I expected “Bubble” to be in the title for no longer than a year or two. It was to be the “Credit Bulletin,” inspired by Benjamin Anderson’s [...]

January 11th, 2020|

January 3, 2020: 2019 in Review

It cannot be overstated: Bubbles are of paramount importance – for markets, finance more generally, economies, and social and geopolitical stability. Two U.S. bursting episodes over the past twenty years would seem to make this [...]

January 4th, 2020|

December 27, 2019: Just the Facts

For the Week: The S&P500 added 0.6% (up 29.2% y-t-d), and the Dow increased 0.7% (up 22.8%). The Utilities slipped 0.3% (up 22.2%). The Banks added 0.3% (up 32.3%), while the Broker/Dealers declined 0.8% (up [...]

December 27th, 2019|

Q3 2019 Z.1 Flow of Funds: Repo Madness

Q3 was yet another fascinating quarter for U.S. finance. Total Credit (Non-Financial, Financial and Foreign U.S. borrowings) jumped a nominal $1.075 TN, the strongest quarterly gain since Q4 2007’s $1.159 TN, ending September at $74.862 [...]

December 14th, 2019|

December 6, 2019: Crazy Extremis

Dr. Bernanke has referred to the understanding of the forces behind the Great Depression as the “Holy Grail of Economics.” But was the Great Depression chiefly the consequence of post-crash policy mistakes, as conventional thinking [...]

December 7th, 2019|

November 29, 2019: Just the Facts

For the Week: The S&P500 gained 1.0% (up 25.3% y-t-d), and the Dow added 0.6% (up 20.3%). The Utilities were unchanged (up 19.0%). The Banks added 0.4% (up 27.9%), and the Broker/Dealers jumped 2.1% (up [...]

November 29th, 2019|

November 22, 2019: Weak Link

Last week from The Institute of International Finance (IIF) (a summary from a members-only report): “Global debt has topped $250 billion – 320% of GDP: emerging market debt hits a new record of $71.4 trillion [...]

November 23rd, 2019|

November 15, 2019: China Update

We shouldn’t read too much into one month. With a holiday week, October is typically a sluggish period for lending in China. But at $88 billion, the growth in Aggregate Financing was about a third [...]

November 16th, 2019|

November 1, 2019: Music to the Markets

October non-farm payrolls expanded a stronger-than-expected 128,000 (estimate 85k), in a month when the GM strike reduced payroll growth by upwards of 42,000 and another 20,000 positions were lost to a shrinking census workforce. September’s [...]

November 1st, 2019|

October 18, 2019: China Watch

I’ve held the view that Chinese finance has been at the epicenter of international market unease. The U.S./China trade war was not the predominant global risk. However, it has had the potential to become a [...]

October 18th, 2019|

October 4, 2019: Resurrecting M2

This week’s disappointing ISM reports dominated business headlines: “US Manufacturing Survey Shows Worst Reading in a Decade.” “U.S. Factory Gauge Hits 10-Year Low as World Slowdown Widens.” “U.S. Manufacturers Experience Worst Month Since 2007-2009 Great Recession.” [...]

October 4th, 2019|

September 27, 2019: Q2 2019 Z.1 and Repos

Non-Financial Debt (NFD) expanded $408 billion during Q1 to a record $53.015 TN. This was down from Q1’s $765 billion expansion. On a seasonally-adjusted and annualized (SAAR) basis, Q2 NFD growth slowed to $1.652 TN [...]

September 28th, 2019|

September 20, 2019: No Coincidences

September 20 – Wall Street Journal (Daniel Kruger): “The Federal Reserve Bank of New York will offer to add at least $75 billion daily to the financial system through Oct. 10, prolonging its efforts to [...]

September 21st, 2019|

September 14, 2019: Just the Facts

For the Week: The S&P500 gained 1.0% (up 20.0% y-t-d), and the Dow rose 1.6% (up 16.7%). The Utilities were unchanged (up 18.8%). The Banks surged 7.8% (up 18.8%), and the Broker/Dealers jumped 5.2% (up [...]

September 14th, 2019|
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