Weekly Commentary Archives

Greed and Fear. “Risk On” and “Risk Off.” “Markets will do what markets will do.” It’s not unreasonable to accept that today’s markets are simply following typical patterns. There’s nothing that remarkable about the current [...]

An outlandish aberration, or a distressing sign of the times – and of what’s to come? Curious readers for centuries have been fascinated by the great 17th century Dutch Bubble. “At the peak of tulip [...]

How does one chronicle a week like this one? “Sam Bankman-Fried’s $32bn FTX Crypto Empire Files for Bankruptcy.” “What’s Next for Crypto as FTX Collapse Triggers ‘Lehman Moment’?” “Stocks Skyrocket in Best Post-CPI Day on [...]

The guy sounds like a discerning traditional central banker. Powell is an admirer of Paul Volcker’s fortitude, and he’s clearly drawing inspiration from the legendary Fed Chairman. Markets are growing impatient. It was a misstep [...]

The S&P500 jumped 4.0% this week, boosting the index’s two-week rally to 8.9%. The small caps rose 6.0% (two-week gain 9.8%), with the average stock (Value Line Arithmetic) up 5.4% (two-week gain 9.6%). Ten-year Treasury [...]

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this coming Thursday, October 27, at 4:00 pm Eastern/ 2:00 pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q3 recap conference call, “Prelude to a Market Accident.” Click here [...]

It would have been a nonevent; inconsequential. Confirming New Cycle Dynamics, the Truss government’s “mini budget” has unleashed absolute mayhem. Pension funds blowing up. Emergency central bank rescue operations. Global market instability. UK’s Treasury Secretary [...]

Adapted from my Friday, October 7, 2022, presentation at the annual McAlvany Wealth Management Client Conference in Durango, Colorado. I fell in love with macro analysis sitting at a trading desk staring at Telerate and [...]

Global de-risking/deleveraging has taken A Threatening Turn. It’s no exaggeration to write that the UK pension system was this week at the brink of spectacular collapse, with confidence in policy and market function hanging in [...]

It really got going Tuesday. Chinese “big four” bank CDS each surged about 10 bps, the largest single-session gains since the July 15th peak “risk off.” Heightened risk aversion was not limited to Chinese banks. [...]

Hotter-than-expected August CPI and quarterly options/derivatives expiration made for a toxic mix. “Core” CPI was reported up 0.6% for the month (7% annualized!), double estimates. With the peak inflation narrative having received the blessing of [...]

Reuters headline: “U.S. Household Wealth Suffers Record Drop in Second Quarter.” Bloomberg: “US Household Net Worth Falls Most on Record on Slump in Stocks.” Yes, Household Net Worth fell $6.1 TN during Q2, the largest [...]

Global “Risk Off” gathers momentum by the week. Crisis Dynamics fester, as global central banks coalesce around a united front for battling inflation. The reality that central bankers will aggressively hike rates until something breaks [...]

I appreciate that Jay Powell is no ideologue. His Fed has made some historic missteps, and Powell as Chair has sometimes flailed. But I’m willing to cut him some slack. I hold his predecessors responsible [...]

It was in ways business as usual. “Risk off” had attained powerful momentum globally back in July. De-risking/deleveraging dynamics were increasingly fomenting illiquidity, contagion and instability across global markets. Bubbles were bursting. Derivatives-related selling was [...]

Wednesday’s CPI release was telling. July consumer price inflation data were somewhat better than forecasts. Instead of increasing 0.2%, headline CPI was flat for the month. “Core” prices rose 0.3%, less than the expected 0.5%. [...]

Bloomberg’s David Westin (Wall Street Week, July 29, 2022): “What do you economists do when you put together these neutral rates?” Larry Summers: “I think Jay Powell said things that, to be blunt, were analytically [...]

For the Week: The S&P500 rallied 4.3% (down 13.3% y-t-d), and the Dow rose 3.0% (down 9.6%). The Utilities surged 6.4% (up 2.4%). The Banks gained 2.1% (down 18.0%), and the Broker/Dealers recovered 4.8% (down [...]

First vacation in a while, so coverage will be spotty for the next week or so. And I’ll try to finish up this week’s CBB news story extracts when I have a chance. Comments from [...]

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this coming Thursday, July 21st, at 4:00 pm Eastern/ 2:00 pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q2 recap conference call, “Nowhere to Hide.” Click here to register. [...]