Weekly Commentary Archives

Weekly Commentary Archives2017-03-02T11:32:28-06:00

June 14, 2019: Q1 2019 Z.1 “Flow of Funds”

Total Non-Financial Debt (NFD) expanded (nominal) $721 billion (strongest growth since Q2 ’18) during the quarter to a record $52.579 TN. NFD expanded $2.504 TN, or 5.0%, year-on-year. For perspective, annual NFD growth averaged $1.602 [...]

June 15th, 2019|

June 7, 2019: Horde of Jumbo Bazookas

“Stocks Eye Best Week of 2019 on ‘Powell Put’ Bets,” read the Friday Bloomberg headline. By the close of Friday trading, the S&P500 had posted a gain of 4.4% (“best week since November”). Also from [...]

June 8th, 2019|

May 31, 2019: So Much for the Trump Put

So Much for the “Trump Put.” May 31 – Bloomberg (Felice Maranz): “President Trump’s promise to impose tariffs on goods until Mexico halts a flow of undocumented immigrants is being panned by analysts and economists… [...]

June 1st, 2019|

May 10, 2019: Deal or No Deal

What went wrong? Clearly, all the positive talk from both the U.S. and China painted a much too rosy picture of trade negotiation progress. From the Wall Street Journal (Lingling Wei and Bob Davis): “The [...]

May 11th, 2019|

May 3, 2019: Transitory Histrionics

May 3 – Financial Times (Sam Fleming): “Having lamented low inflation as one of the great challenges facing central bankers today in March, Jay Powell on Wednesday wrongfooted many investors with comments that seemed to [...]

May 3rd, 2019|

April 19, 2019: Full Capitulation

April 16 – Bloomberg (Rich Miller and Craig Torres): “Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues have made an important shift in their strategy for dealing with inflation in a prelude to what could [...]

April 20th, 2019|

April 12, 2019: The Perils of Stop and Go

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this Thursday, April 18th, at 4:00PM EST/ 2:00pm MST for the Tactical Short Q1 recap conference call, “What are Central Banks Afraid of?” Click here to register. China’s [...]

April 13th, 2019|

April 5, 2019: Faux Statesmanship

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany Thursday, April 18th, at 4:00PM EST/ 2:00pm MST for the Tactical Short Q1 recap conference call, “What are Central Banks Afraid of?” Click here to register. April 5 [...]

April 6th, 2019|

March 29, 2019: Everything Rally

From the global Bubble perspective, it was one extraordinary quarter worthy of chronicling in some detail. The “Everything Rally,” indeed. Markets turned even more highly synchronized – across the globe and across asset classes. As [...]

March 30th, 2019|

March 22, 2019: Doing Harm with Uber-Dovish

This week’s FOMC meeting will be debated for years – perhaps even decades. The Fed essentially pre-committed to no rate hike in 2019. The committee downgraded both its growth and inflation forecasts. Having all at [...]

March 23rd, 2019|

March 8, 2019: Q4 2018 Z.1 “Flow of Funds”

I’ve been anxiously awaiting the Fed’s Q4 2018 Z.1 “Flow of Funds” report. It provided the first comprehensive look at how this period’s market instability affected various sectors within the financial system. From ballooning Broker/Dealer [...]

March 8th, 2019|

March 1, 2019: Just the Facts

For the Week: The S&P500 added 0.4% (up 11.8% y-t-d), while the Dow was little changed (up 11.6%). The Utilities slipped 0.3% (up 8.0%). The Banks increased 0.6% (up 17.2%), while the Broker/Dealers were little [...]

March 1st, 2019|

February 22, 2019: Dudley on Debt and MMT

December’s market instability and resulting Fed capitulation to the marketplace continue to reverberate. At this point, markets basically assume the Fed is well into the process of terminating policy normalization. Only a couple of months [...]

February 23rd, 2019|

February 15, 2019: No Holds Barred

The world is now fully embroiled in a most precarious period. I wonder if the Fed is comfortable seeing the markets dash skyward – the small caps up 16.4% y-t-d, Banks 15.9%, Transports 15.2%, Biotechs [...]

February 16th, 2019|

February 8, 2019: Delusional

February 8 – Bloomberg (Brian Chappatta): “Bond traders are dusting off their tried and true post-crisis playbook after the Federal Reserve’s pivot last month. What they don’t realize is that the game has most likely [...]

February 9th, 2019|

February 1, 2019: No Mystery

January 30 – Financial Times (Sam Fleming): “After putting traders on notice six weeks ago to expect further increases in US interest rates in 2019, the Federal Reserve… executed one of its sharpest U-turns in [...]

February 1st, 2019|
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