Weekly Commentary Archives

Weekly Commentary Archives2017-03-02T11:32:28-07:00

June 18, 2021: Heels Dislodged

It was a fascinating set up. A pivotal FOMC meeting two days ahead of quarterly “quadruple witch” expiration of options and other derivatives. Option expiration-related volatility used to be largely [...]

June 19th, 2021|

June 4, 2021: Turned Tight

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls increased 559,000 in May, about double April’s 278,000 gain, but still below the 675,000 consensus forecast. Average Hourly Earnings rose a stronger-than-expected 0.5% for the month, with back-to-back robust monthly earnings gains [...]

June 5th, 2021|

May 28, 2021: The Wisdom of Benjamin Anderson

It’s perhaps the greatest issue confronting today’s global markets. It didn’t work in the U.S. in the late-twenties. Arguably, it was an unmitigated disaster. Beijing has begun moving more aggressively to rein in speculative excess, [...]

May 29th, 2021|

May 21, 2021: Just the Facts

For the Week: The S&P500 slipped 0.4% (up 10.6% y-t-d), and the Dow declined 0.5% (up 11.8%). The Utilities added 0.4% (up 4.7%). The Banks fell 1.0% (up 35.1%), and the Broker/Dealers declined 1.2% (up [...]

May 21st, 2021|

May 14, 2021: Un-Anchored

A big week on the inflation front. April CPI was reported up 0.8% versus estimates of 0.2%. And while the 4.2% y-o-y increase was partly a function of the year ago negative CPI prints, it’s [...]

May 15th, 2021|

April 30, 2021: Fed Guessing

“I’m not sure why they think they know that it’s transitory. How do they know that when there’s plenty of money printing that’s been going on and we’ve seen commodity prices going up really massively? [...]

May 1st, 2021|

April 23, 2021: Peak Monetary Stimulus

Not again. Bloomberg is referring to “the bond market riddle.” The Financial Times went with the headline, “US Government Bond Investors Left Bewildered by ‘Bonkers’ Market Move.” It’s been three weeks of declining Treasury yields [...]

April 24th, 2021|

April 16, 2021: Haurong

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this Thursday, April 22nd, at 4:00 pm Eastern/ 2:00 pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q1 recap conference call, “Contemplating an Inflection Point.” Click here to register. [...]

April 17th, 2021|

April 9, 2021: Keeping the Dance Party Rolling

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany a week from Thursday, April 22nd, at 4:00 pm Eastern/ 2:00 pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q1 recap conference call, “Contemplating an Inflection Point.” Click here [...]

April 10th, 2021|

Archegos and Ponzi Finance

I’ve been a longtime enthusiast for Hyman Minky’s analysis. His work plays prominently in my analytical framework. Financial structures evolve over time, and there is an innate propensity for this evolution to regress into a [...]

April 3rd, 2021|

March 26, 2021: Double Trouble

March 1 – Daily Sabah: “Turkey’s economy grew a less-than-expected but still robust 5.9% in the fourth quarter of 2020 and 1.8% in the year as a whole…, emerging as one of only a few [...]

March 27th, 2021|

March 19, 2021: Powell on Inflation

The Treasury yield spike runs unabated. Ten-year Treasury yields rose another 10 bps this week to 1.72%, the high since January 23, 2020. The Treasury five-year “breakeven” inflation rate rose [...]

March 20th, 2021|

February 26, 2021: Paradigm Change

Ten-year Treasury yields closed out a tumultuous week at 1.41% bps, pulling back after Thursday’s spike to a one-year high 1.61%. Ten-year Treasury yields are now up 49 bps from the start of the year [...]

February 27th, 2021|

February 19, 2021: Wrecking Ball

I give it my best shot each week. My hope is to provide pertinent insight, though the overarching objective is to scrupulously chronicle this extraordinary period in history. Like other great Bubbles and manias, looking [...]

February 20th, 2021|

February 12, 2021:The Short but Momentous History of Fed QE

Central banking traditionally operated as a judicious and conservative institution, with an overarching mandate focused on promoting monetary and financial stability. Historically, recognition that missteps can impart such profound societal hardship necessitated an incremental and [...]

February 13th, 2021|

February 5, 2021: That’s on Them

GameStop collapsed 80% this week, with Express and AMC Entertainment down 48%, Vaxart 36%, and Siebert Financial 31%. Riches have been made and lost. Wealth was redistributed – and count [...]

February 6th, 2021|
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