Weekly Commentary Archives 2017-03-02T11:32:28+00:00

April 20, 2018: Recalling 1994

Equities rallied to begin the week. With Syrian missile strikes more limited than feared and no military response from Russia, there was immediate impetus to unwind hedges. That it was option expiration week ensured plenty [...]

April 20th, 2018|

April 13, 2018: Bizarre and Ominous

Please join me and David McAlvany for the MWM Tactical Short Second-Quarter 2018 Conference Call: “Market Structure, Trump Tariffs, Higher Rates… Markets at a Precipice?” Thursday, April 19th, at 4:30pm [...]

April 14th, 2018|

April 6, 2018: Market Realities

Please join me and David McAlvany for the MWM Tactical Short Second-Quarter 2018 Conference Call: “Market Structure, Trump Tariffs, Higher Rates… Markets at a Precipice?” Thursday, April 19th, at 4:30pm EST (2:30pm MST): Click here to [...]

April 6th, 2018|

March 30, 2018: Just the Facts

For the Final Week of a Wild Quarter: The S&P500 rallied 2.0% (down 1.2% Q1), and the Dow gained 2.4% (down 2.5%). The Utilities jumped 2.9% (down 4.5%). The Banks recovered 2.5% (down 0.2%), and [...]

March 30th, 2018|

March 23, 2018: Regime Change

Deutsche Bank (DB) dropped 13% this week to a 15-month low. DB is now down 28% y-t-d. European banks (STOXX) sank 5.0% this week. Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Financials were down 4.9%. Japan’s TOPIX Bank [...]

March 24th, 2018|

March 16, 2018: Nobody Thinks It Would Happen Again

WSJ: “Ten Years After the Bear Stearns Bailout, Nobody Thinks It Would Happen Again.” Myriad changes to the financial structure have seemingly safeguarded the financial system from another 2008-style crisis. The big Wall Street financial [...]

March 17th, 2018|

March 9, 2018: Q4 2017 Z.1 Flow of Funds

So much uncertainty in the world these days. Some things, however, we know with certitude: U.S. Debt, the value of the securities markets and Household Net Worth do grow to the sky. The Fed’s latest [...]

March 9th, 2018|

March 2, 2018: Cracks

After posting an intra-week high of 25,800 on Tuesday, the DJIA then dropped 1,583 points (6.1%) at the week’s Friday morning low (24,217) – before closing the session at 24,538 (down 3.0% for the week). [...]

March 2nd, 2018|

February 2, 2018: The Grand Crowded Trade of Financial Speculation

Even well into 2017, variations of the “secular stagnation” thesis remained popular within the economics community. Accelerating synchronized global growth notwithstanding, there’s been this enduring notion that economies are burdened by “insufficient aggregate demand.” The [...]

February 2nd, 2018|

January 12, 2018: Mania

This might be the most fascinating market backdrop of my career. Not yet as dramatic as 1987, 1990, 1994, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2007, 2008, 2009 or 2012 – [...]

January 12th, 2018|

December 29, 2017: A Phenomenal Year

2017 was phenomenal in so many ways. The year will be remembered for a tumultuous first year of the Trump Presidency, the passage of major tax legislation and seemingly endless [...]

December 30th, 2017|

December 22, 2017: Epic Stimulus Overload

Ten-year Treasury yields jumped 13 bps this week to 2.48%, the high going back to March. German bund yields rose 12 bps to 0.42%. U.S. equities have been reveling in tax reform exuberance. Bonds not [...]

December 22nd, 2017|

December 8, 2017: Q3 2017 Flow of Funds

In nominal dollars, Total U.S. System (Non-Financial, Financial and Foreign) borrowings expanded $1.007 TN during the third quarter to a record $68.012 TN. Total Non-Financial Debt (NFD) rose a nominal $732 billion during the quarter [...]

December 8th, 2017|
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