Credit Bubble Bulletin

Credit Bubble Bulletin2020-05-20T17:01:05-06:00

Presented by Doug Noland

Weekly Commentary

July 23, 2021: Dangerous Addiction

July 20 – Reuters (Karen Pierog): “Risk-off sentiment that drove Monday’s sell-off on Wall Street and rally in U.S. Treasuries widened credit spreads on corporate bonds to multi-month highs. The spread on the ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Index, a commonly used benchmark for the junk bond market, spiked from 318 bps on Friday to 344 bps as of the last update late Monday, its highest level since late March, according to Refinitiv data. It was also the biggest widening in a day since last June.”

The S&P500 dropped 1.6% in Monday trading, as U.S. stocks followed global equities lower. The VIX Index spiked to 25, a two-month high, while 10-year Treasury yields dropped to a five-month low 1.17%. Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 indices sank 2.6% and 2.5% – to lows since May. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell another 1.8%, with the Hang Seng China Financials Index trading this week at an eight-month low. Global “Risk Off” was gathering momentum.

July 20 – Bloomberg: “Fresh signs of a cash crunch at China Evergrande Group sent shares and bonds of the world’s most indebted developer to new lows on Tuesday, stoking fears of broader market contagion. The property giant’s stock tumbled to the lowest level since April 2017, extending its two-day loss to 25%. Several of Evergrande’s local and offshore bonds sank to records, with its dollar note due 2025 falling to as low as 54 cents. Bonds of other junk-rated Chinese borrowers declined, while a gauge of developer shares dropped to a nearly three-year low. The nation’s bank stocks also slumped.”

July 20 – Bloomberg (Rebecca Choong Wilkins and Alice Huang): “Rising concerns over the financial health of China Evergrande Group are weighing down the broader market of high-yield bonds as contagion fears rise. Property developers are leading declines among China’s offshore junk bonds Tuesday. Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd.’s 2025 note fell 3.3 cents on the dollar to 92.3 cents, and Guangzhou R&F Properties Co.’s bond due 2023 declined 1.6 cents to 96.8 cents… Deepening doubts over Asia’s biggest issuer of dollar junk bonds are spilling over into other parts of the offshore market as investors cut their exposure to riskier borrowers.”

After a brief respite, Chinese Credit stress contagion was again escalating – at least early in the week. But the S&P500 then surged 3.6% in four sessions to end the week at all-time highs. No adjustments. No corrections. (more…)

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