CBB2017-03-28T09:32:00+00:00

Credit Bubble Bulletin – Doug Noland

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August 17, 2018: Instability

With the Turkish lira down another 6.6% in Monday trading, global “Risk Off” market instability was turning acute. The U.S. dollar index jumped to an almost 14-month high Monday, as the Turkish lira, Argentine peso, Indian rupee and others traded to record lows versus the greenback. The South African rand “flash crashed” 10%, before recovering to a 2.3% decline. Brazil’s sovereign CDS jumped 14 bps Monday to a six-week high 252. Italian 10-year yields jumped 11 bps in Monday trading to 3.10%, near the high going back to June 2014, as the euro declined to one-year lows.

The Turkish lira surged 8.4% Tuesday, jumped another 6.8% Wednesday and then gained an additional 1.9% Thursday. Wild instability then saw the Turkish lira drop 3.1% during Friday’s session, ending the week up 6.9%. Qatar’s $15 billion pledge, along with central bank measures, supported the tenuous lira recovery.

August 17 – Wall Street Journal (Lingling Wei and Bob Davis): “Chinese and U.S. negotiators are mapping out talks to try to end their trade impasse ahead of planned meetings between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at multilateral summits in November, said officials in both nations. The planning represents an effort on both sides to keep a spiraling trade dispute-which already has involved billions of dollars in tariffs and comes with the threat of hundreds of billions more-from torpedoing the U.S.-China relationship and shaking global markets. Scheduled midlevel talks in Washington next week, which both sides announced on Thursday, will pave the way for November. A nine-member delegation from Beijing, led by Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen, will meet with U.S. officials led by the Treasury undersecretary, David Malpass, on Aug. 22-23. The negotiations are aimed at finding a way for both sides to address the trade disputes, the officials said, and could lead to more rounds of talks.” (more…)

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