Weekly Commentary Archives

Weekly Commentary Archives2017-03-02T11:32:28-07:00

February 26, 2021: Paradigm Change

Ten-year Treasury yields closed out a tumultuous week at 1.41% bps, pulling back after Thursday’s spike to a one-year high 1.61%. Ten-year Treasury yields are now up 49 bps from the start of the year [...]

February 27th, 2021|

February 19, 2021: Wrecking Ball

I give it my best shot each week. My hope is to provide pertinent insight, though the overarching objective is to scrupulously chronicle this extraordinary period in history. Like other great Bubbles and manias, looking [...]

February 20th, 2021|

February 12, 2021:The Short but Momentous History of Fed QE

Central banking traditionally operated as a judicious and conservative institution, with an overarching mandate focused on promoting monetary and financial stability. Historically, recognition that missteps can impart such profound societal hardship necessitated an incremental and [...]

February 13th, 2021|

February 5, 2021: That’s on Them

GameStop collapsed 80% this week, with Express and AMC Entertainment down 48%, Vaxart 36%, and Siebert Financial 31%. Riches have been made and lost. Wealth was redistributed – and count [...]

February 6th, 2021|

January 29, 2021: The Great 2021 Squeeze Mania

Yet another week for the history books. For posterity: GameStop gained 400%, AMC Entertainment 278%, Express 235%, Siebert Financial 122%, Cel-Sci 75%, Novavax 74%, Vaxart 68%, Fulgent Genetics 60%, Vir Biotechnology 59%, National Beverage 54%, [...]

January 30th, 2021|

January 22, 2021: Short-Term Unsustainable

Outstanding Treasury Securities began 2008 at $6.051 TN, or 41% of GDP. Treasuries ended 2019 at $19.019 TN, or 87% of GDP. And then, in only three quarters, Treasuries surged another $3.882 TN to $22.900 [...]

January 23rd, 2021|

January 8, 2021: Issues 2021

Fragility. Last year exposed myriad fragilities. The U.S. stock market went from all-time highs to an emergency FOMC meeting in ten sessions. The S&P500 lost more than a third of its value in just 21 [...]

January 9th, 2021|

January 1, 2021: 2020 Year in Review

Over 350,000 Americans dead, with the Covid death toll projected to rise another 150,000 by the end of January. Confirmed Covid cases have exceeded 20 million (84 million globally), ending 2020 with new U.S. infections [...]

January 2nd, 2021|

December 25, 2020: Just the Facts

For the Week: The S&P500 slipped 0.2% (up 14.6% y-t-d), while the Dow was little changed (up 5.8%). The Utilities declined 0.9% (down 2.9%). The Banks jumped 3.1% (down 15.0%), and the Broker/Dealers gained 1.9% [...]

December 25th, 2020|

December 18, 2020: $10.275 TN in Nine Months

Federal Reserve Assets surged $120 billion last week to a record $7.363 TN. Fed Assets inflated $3.593 TN, or 95%, over the past 66 weeks. M2 “money” supply surged $228 billion in this week’s report [...]

December 19th, 2020|

December 4, 2020: Monetary Disorder In Extremis

November non-farm payrolls gained 245,000, only about half the mean forecast – and down from October’s 610,000. It was the weakest job growth since April’s employment debacle. U.S. equities rallied on the disappointing news. A [...]

December 5th, 2020|

November 20, 2020: Scorched Earth

November 18 – Reuters (Rodrigo Campos): “Global debt is expected to soar to a record $277 trillion by the end of the year as governments and companies continue to spend in response to the COVID-19 [...]

November 21st, 2020|

November 6, 2020: Critical Juncture

We’ve grown accustomed to the “new normal”: Stock market ebullience even as the country suffers through a distressing confluence of hardships. The S&P500 surged 7.3% this week, the strongest weekly advance since April. Though the [...]

November 7th, 2020|

October 30, 2020: Very Dangerous

We’re now only a few days from the most pivotal of elections. Meanwhile, new U.S. Covid infections have surged to pandemic highs (Friday surpassing 100,000 on worldometers), with the virus running rampant throughout the country. [...]

October 31st, 2020|

October 23, 2020: The New Massive

A most pivotal election is now only 10 days away. Joe Biden has a commanding lead in the polls. Moreover, betting sites are indicating rising odds of the Democrats taking control of the Senate (PredictIt: [...]

October 24th, 2020|

October 16, 2020: Moral Hazard Pinnacle

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this Thursday, October 22nd, at 4:00pm Eastern/ 2:00pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q3 recap conference call, “Managing Short Exposure in Extreme Uncertainty.” Click here to register. [...]

October 17th, 2020|
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