Weekly Commentary Archives

Bloomberg’s David Westin (Wall Street Week, July 29, 2022): “What do you economists do when you put together these neutral rates?” Larry Summers: “I think Jay Powell said things that, to be blunt, were analytically [...]

For the Week: The S&P500 rallied 4.3% (down 13.3% y-t-d), and the Dow rose 3.0% (down 9.6%). The Utilities surged 6.4% (up 2.4%). The Banks gained 2.1% (down 18.0%), and the Broker/Dealers recovered 4.8% (down [...]

First vacation in a while, so coverage will be spotty for the next week or so. And I’ll try to finish up this week’s CBB news story extracts when I have a chance. Comments from [...]

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this coming Thursday, July 21st, at 4:00 pm Eastern/ 2:00 pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q2 recap conference call, “Nowhere to Hide.” Click here to register. [...]

The late-nineties U.S. “tech” Bubble was financed, at the margin, by high-yield debt (telecom, in particular), speculative hedge fund levered finance, and GSE liquidity. The Bubble was reasonably well contained within the technology, telecom and [...]

“In 1939, a brief proposal auspiciously titled ‘A Program for Monetary Reform’ was circulated among economists in the United States. Written in the wake of The Great Depression by a group of prominent American economists [...]

Is the market bottom in, or is this more a replay of the fleeting Q1 quarter-end bear market rally? Is the “fix in” for European bonds? Does Kuroda’s foolhardy cling to “whatever it takes” buy [...]

We’re striving for context and perspective. In this incredible environment, feelings of insecurity and apprehension are inescapable. But we can work hard to minimize confusion. A Bubble: “A self-reinforcing but inevitably unsustainable inflation.” An Experiment: [...]

No mincing words; no need for sophisticated prose. The week was ugly. Things look bad. There are elements similar to the year 2000 bursting of the “Dot-com” Bubble. There are parallels to the much more [...]

The week arguably offered some clarity on key facets of today’s murky financial, economic and policy backdrops. At this point, the U.S. economy is anything but falling off a cliff. A stronger-than-expected 390,000 jobs were [...]

A headline this week from National Review: “The Fed’s Half-Hearted War on Inflation – It has the power, but does it have the will?” Is the Fed all inflation bark and no bite? After all, [...]

The thesis is one of secular change – an extraordinary multi-decade Bubble period transitioning (in a highly destabilizing manner) to a most uncertain New Cycle. Historical perspective is crucial. May 19 – Bloomberg (Steve Matthews): [...]

Global Bubble deflation gathered additional momentum this week. The U.S./global tech Bubble collapse accelerated. Hit by panic “runs”, the historic cryptocurrency mania is coming completely unglued. And even more historic Chinese apartment, financial and economic [...]

The Global Bubble, several decades in the making, is in the process of bursting. A new cycle is emerging, replete with extraordinary uncertainties. Acute instability has become a permanent feature, at least through the cycle [...]

The Shanghai Composite sank 5.1% Monday, fell another 1.4% Tuesday, rallied 2.5% Wednesday, increased 0.6% Thursday, and then rose 2.4% Friday – with the wild week’s 1.3% decline boosting y-t-d losses to 16.3%. If that [...]

It was an important week – perhaps critical. There was additional support for my macro thesis. The bottom line: increasingly unstable global markets today face extreme uncertainty, arguably the greatest array of uncertainties in decades. [...]

Something snapped. Ten-year Treasury yields jumped another 12 bps this week, with a two-week gain of 44 bps. At 2.83%, 10-year yields ended the week at the high since December 2018. Thirty-year Treasuries yields surged [...]

Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this coming Thursday, April 14th, at 4:00 pm Eastern/ 2:00 pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q1 recap conference call, “Instability 2022: Inflation, War and China.” Click [...]

Historic Q1 2022. Inflation, a Hawkish Fed, Spiking Bond Yields, War, China and Acute Instability. Where to begin? “Inflation Hits a New 40-year High.” “Bond Market Suffers Worst Quarter in Decades.” “Commodities Finish Best Quarter [...]

It’s been some time since the Fed commenced a serious tightening cycle. Previous moves to raise rates progressed gingerly, so as not to risk upsetting the cherished stock market. One has to go back to [...]