Tuesday, January 26, 2021
[CNBC] Stock futures down ahead of busy day of corporate earnings [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Asian Stocks Drop on Stimulus Timing; Bonds Steady: Markets Wrap [Yahoo/Bloomberg] China's benchmark overnight repo rate jumps to highest since Nov 2019 [Yahoo/Bloomberg] [...]
Monday, January 25, 2021
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Tech Stocks Rally; European Stocks Retreat: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Dollar steadies; euro hurt by vaccine delays and German business morale slump [MarketWatch] Gold prices perk up as government bond yields retreat [Reuters] Fed set [...]
Sunday, January 24, 2021
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] World’s Economic Recovery Gets Delayed by Slow Vaccine Rollouts [Reuters] Biden administration to unveil more climate policies, urges China to toughen emissions target [Reuters] China-Taiwan tensions rise days into Biden presidency [Reuters] U.S. carrier [...]
Saturday, January 23, 2021
[AP] Biden’s choice on econ aid: Deal with GOP or go for it all [CNBC] The stock market is at or near the most-expensive levels ever by most measures. When will it matter? [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Oil [...]
January 22, 2021: Short-Term Unsustainable
Outstanding Treasury Securities began 2008 at $6.051 TN, or 41% of GDP. Treasuries ended 2019 at $19.019 TN, or 87% of GDP. And then, in only three quarters, Treasuries surged another $3.882 TN to $22.900 [...]
Only Gold Is Gold – January 22, 2021
Weekly Hard Assets Insights By David McAlvany Only Gold Is Gold The meteoric rise and fall of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies has gotten a great deal of media attention. Those of us close to [...]
Tactical Short Strategy – January 21, 2021
Tactical Short Strategy Conference Call - January 21, 2021 Disclaimer: Advisory services are offered by McAlvany Wealth Management, an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The comments [...]
Friday, January 22, 2021
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Rally Stumbles With Virus Concerns Back to Fore: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Global stocks ease as gloomy data takes shine off U.S. stimulus hopes [Reuters] Oil down 2% as China COVID-19 cases trigger clampdowns [Reuters] [...]
Thursday, January 21, 2021
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Rise to Record; Euro Holds Gain After ECB: Markets Wrap [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Gold Steady as Dollar Continues Decline on Biden Stimulus Bets [Reuters] Euro clings to gains as ECB sticks to policy, dollar dips [...]
Wednesday, January 20, 2021
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Rise With Europe; Bonds Dip: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Stocks welcome Yellen's call to 'act big' on coronavirus spending [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Gold Rises With Dollar’s Outlook in Focus After Yellen Weighs In [Reuters] Biden [...]
Tuesday, January 19, 2021
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks, Treasury Yields Rise Before Yellen Hearing: Markets Wrap [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Yellen Faces Senate With ‘Act Big’ Message on Economic Stimulus [AP] A new COVID-19 challenge: Mutations rise along with cases [CNBC] Covid live updates: [...]
Monday, January 18, 2021
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Equity Futures Fluctuate, Dollar Edges Higher: Markets Wrap [CNBC] Global stocks sink as coronavirus fears outweigh recovery hopes [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Gold Edges Up From December Low With Focus on Stimulus, Dollar [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Oil Extends [...]
Sunday, January 17, 2021
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Most Mideast Equity Gauges Fall as Earnings Roll In: Inside EM [AP] Statehouses, US capital brace for potentially violent week [Reuters] Italy's Conte struggles to secure support in Senate showdown [Reuters] Italy public debt [...]
Saturday, January 16, 2021
[CNBC] Adrenaline-fueled rush for small caps, vaccine plays and story stocks dents passive-indexing trend [CNBC] New Covid variant first found in UK could become dominant strain in U.S. by March, CDC says [Reuters] U.S. [...]
January 15, 2021: The Reality of Financial Dominance
Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this Thursday, January 21st, at 4:00pm Eastern/ 2:00pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q4 recap conference call, “Managing in a Mania.” Click [...]
New Year Begins with Significant Market Shifts – January 15, 2021
New Year Begins with Significant Market Shifts Hard Assets Insights has returned after a bit of a hiatus, although we have been watching the current economic and market landscape with incredible fascination. It seems [...]
Friday, January 15, 2021
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks, Yields Fall as Reflation Trade Sputters: Markets Wrap [Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Retail Sales Post Surprise Monthly Drop to Cap Dismal Year [Reuters] U.S. producer prices increase moderately in December [CNBC] Covid live updates: Officials [...]
Thursday, January 14, 2021
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Treasury Yields Rise on Aid Report; Stocks Advance: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Stimulus helps stocks shrug off impeachment chaos [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Chinese Stocks Fall Most Since September, Pulling Back From 13-Year High [Reuters] Dollar holds gains [...]
Wednesday, January 13, 2021
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Slip While Dollar Strengthens: Markets Wrap [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Dollar Climbs; Europe Stocks Fluctuate: Markets Wrap [CNBC] U.S. consumer prices increase in December [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Fed Talk of Taper Rekindles Specter of Wrenching 2013 Tantrum [...]
Tuesday, January 12, 2021
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Churn Higher as Dollar Steadies: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Global Markets - Stocks pause for breath as bond selloff extends [Reuters] Oil hits 11-month high as Saudi cut supports [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Worsening U.S.-China Tensions [...]
Monday, January 11, 2021
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Dollar Rises as Stocks Retreat: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Stocks slip on virus fears, dollar hits highest in 2-1/2 weeks [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Gold Steadies After Treasury Yields Drop Amid Investor Caution [Reuters] Oil falls on [...]
Sunday, January 10, 2021
[AP] In wake of Capitol riot, Americans struggle for answers [Yahoo/Bloomberg] The Inflation Debate That’s Roiling U.S. Markets Faces 2021 Test [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Resilience Test Awaits Emerging Markets Unnerved by Treasuries [Reuters] New coronavirus variant found [...]
Saturday, January 9, 2021
[AP] Democratic wins could strengthen Biden’s legislative push [CNN] More states report climbing Covid-19 numbers as CDC chief warns US Capitol riot was a likely 'surge event' [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Fastest Rally in History Takes Emerging-Market Stocks [...]
January 8, 2021: Issues 2021
Fragility. Last year exposed myriad fragilities. The U.S. stock market went from all-time highs to an emergency FOMC meeting in ten sessions. The S&P500 lost more than a third of its value in just 21 [...]
Friday, January 8, 2021
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Rise as Grim Jobs Data Spur Stimulus Bets: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Shares soar on hopes of global recovery, U.S. stimulus [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Treasury Yield Surge Rattles Emerging-Market Currencies in Asia [CNBC] Economy sees [...]
Thursday, January 7, 2021
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Rise as Congress Certifies Biden’s Presidency [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Extend Gains as Investors Focus on Stimulus: Markets Wrap [MarketWatch] U.S. trade deficit widens 8% in November [Reuters] U.S. weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fall [...]
Wednesday, January 6, 2021
[Reuters] Treasury yields soar, tech stocks crumble on possible Georgia 'blue sweep' [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Treasury Yields Reach 1%; Nasdaq Tumbles: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Dollar hits lowest since March 2018 on Democrat gains in U.S. senate election [...]
Tuesday, January 5, 2021
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Slip With Europe; Dollar Drops: Markets Wrap [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Gold Near Eight-Week High as Covid Angst Fires Up Haven Demand [AP] Decision day in Georgia with Senate majority at stake [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Markets Brace [...]
Monday, January 4, 2021
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Rise With Europe; Gold Jumps: Markets Wrap [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Dollar Stumbles Into 2021 as Bets on Global Recovery Dominate [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Gold Roars Out of Blocks in 2021 as Real Yields, Dollar Decline [Reuters] [...]
Sunday, January 3, 2021
[Reuters] U.S. Senate control, and Biden's agenda, at stake as Georgia runoff elections loom [AP] Congress opening new session as virus, Biden’s win dominate [AP] The Latest: US virus death toll hits 350,000; surge feared [...]
Saturday, January 2, 2021
[Reuters] A record three million early votes cast in Georgia's U.S. Senate runoff races [CNBC] The legacy of 2020: Riches for the wealthy and White, financial pain for others [CNBC] China says it will [...]
January 1, 2021: 2020 Year in Review
Over 350,000 Americans dead, with the Covid death toll projected to rise another 150,000 by the end of January. Confirmed Covid cases have exceeded 20 million (84 million globally), ending 2020 with new U.S. infections [...]
Friday, January 1, 2021
[Reuters] U.S. stocks in 2020: a year for the history books [CNBC] Politics will be front and center as a catalyst in the first week of the new year [AP] Shutdown, impeachment, virus: Chaotic Congress [...]
Thursday, December 31, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Steady Near All-Time Highs; Dollar Dips: Markets Wrap [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Gold Heads for Best Year in a Decade With Dollar on the Ropes [Reuters] Dollar sucked into downward spiral by U.S. twin deficits [Yahoo/Bloomberg] [...]
Wednesday, December 30, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Rebound, Dollar Weakens: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Stocks rise into year-end on 2021 recovery hopes [Reuters] Dollar slumps as bears shrug off U.S. stimulus delay [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Drive for $2,000 Checks Bogs Down Senate [...]
Tuesday, December 29, 2020
[Reuters] Global stocks, oil lead risk rally on U.S. stimulus hopes [Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. and Global Stocks Ride the Stimulus Wave: Markets Wrap [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Gold Climbs After House Backs Trump’s Call for $2,000 Checks [Reuters] Dollar [...]
Monday, December 28, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Climb; Treasuries Retreat: Markets Wrap [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Gold Set for Best Close in Seven Weeks as Trump Signs Stimulus [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Alibaba Antitrust Fears Drive $200 Billion Chinese Tech Selloff [AP] Trump signs massive measure [...]
Sunday, December 27, 2020
[Reuters] U.S. jobless benefit cut-off pushes millions to financial cliff-edge [SFGate] California now has the worst COVID-19 spread in US [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Bond Traders Close Out Chaotic Year With Key 1% Level in Sight [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Volatility [...]
Saturday, December 26, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Year of the Meme Stock: Hertz, Kodak Top List of 2020 Highlights [Reuters] U.S. holiday retail sales rise 3% as online shopping booms- Mastercard report [Reuters] Millions of Americans lose jobless benefits as [...]
December 25, 2020: Just the Facts
For the Week: The S&P500 slipped 0.2% (up 14.6% y-t-d), while the Dow was little changed (up 5.8%). The Utilities declined 0.9% (down 2.9%). The Banks jumped 3.1% (down 15.0%), and the Broker/Dealers gained 1.9% [...]
Friday, December 25, 2020
[Reuters] Politics blunts Christmas as U.S. government shutdown nears, COVID-19 aid uncertain [Reuters] Many just want a hug for Christmas this year, Queen Elizabeth says [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Pope Calls on World Leaders to Share Vaccines: Virus [...]
Thursday, December 24, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Rise; Pound Gains on Brexit Deal Hope: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Brexit deal anticipation fuels stocks and sterling [CNBC] GOP blocks House Democrats’ attempt to pass $2,000 stimulus checks after Trump voices support [...]
Wednesday, December 23, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Climb With Europe; Dollar Dips: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Trump threatens to not sign COVID-19 bill, wants bigger stimulus checks [AP] Trump threatens to torpedo COVID relief with new demands [Reuters] Weekly jobless [...]
Tuesday, December 22, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks recover as U.S. stimulus offsets angst over new coronavirus strain [Reuters] Spread of virus mutation keeps euro and pound under pressure [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Oil Extends Loss With Virus Mutation Threatening Energy Demand [CNBC] U.S. [...]
Monday, December 21, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks tumble on fears over new coronavirus strain [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Slump on Virus Curbs; Bonds Rally: Markets Wrap [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Pound Plummets as Virus Threatens U.K.’s Supply Chains With EU [Reuters] World closes borders to [...]
Sunday, December 20, 2020
[Reuters] Congress poised to vote on COVID aid package after Fed compromise [CNBC] Covid live updates: Stimulus deal in reach after Fed compromise; Moderna vaccine shipping soon [Mint/Bloomberg] Britain warns new Covid-19 virus strain 'out [...]
The Markets Think Better Times Are Ahead – December 18, 2020
The Markets Think Better Times Are Ahead Financial markets remain ebullient as they make all-time new highs coming into the holiday season and year-end. Optimism around the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine has fueled [...]
Saturday, December 19, 2020
[Reuters] Congress works through the weekend to finalize COVID aid package [CNBC] Pain, despair and poverty reach fever pitch for unemployed workers [Reuters] Fed sees 'strong capital levels' at banks after stress tests, greenlights share [...]
December 18, 2020: $10.275 TN in Nine Months
Federal Reserve Assets surged $120 billion last week to a record $7.363 TN. Fed Assets inflated $3.593 TN, or 95%, over the past 66 weeks. M2 “money” supply surged $228 billion in this week’s report [...]
Friday, December 18, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Steady After S&P Record; Dollar Rebounds: Markets Wrap [AP] Global stock markets edge up on US stimulus hopes [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Oil Near Highest Level Since February With Bumper Rally Pausing [Reuters] U.S. current account [...]
Thursday, December 17, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Rise With Weak Data Fueling Aid-Deal Bets: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Stimulus hopes boost stocks to record; bitcoin soars [Reuters] Dollar gets global beating as stimulus, Brexit boost risk appetite [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Gold Bulls Take [...]
Wednesday, December 16, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks hit record highs on vaccine, stimulus, Brexit deal hopes [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Pound, Euro Rise to Multi-Year Highs on Brexit Hope, Weak Dollar [CNBC] U.S. retail sales decrease more than expected in November [CNBC] McConnell [...]
Tuesday, December 15, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Rebound After Four-Day Slump: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Wall Street rises on stimulus hopes; Fed meet in focus [Reuters] Dollar heavy amid stimulus progress, pound buoyed by Brexit hopes [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Gold Climbs as [...]
Monday, December 14, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Set Bullish Tone as Pound Surges: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Dollar falls; sterling up 1.5% as Brexit deal hopes lift risk appetite [Reuters] Oil prices edge up on hope vaccines will improve fuel demand [...]
Market Shift – Rotation Into Value? – December 11, 2020
Market Shift – Rotation Into Value? Negotiations around a fiscal stimulus package drag on, and COVID cases continue to rise – as expected into winter. The financial markets have been experiencing a great deal [...]
Sunday, December 13, 2020
[Reuters] Historic U.S. COVID vaccine campaign launches with convoy of trucks [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: Vaccine doses are shipping to all 50 states with delivery expected Monday [Reuters] Leaders to push Brexit trade talks beyond [...]
Saturday, December 12, 2020
[Reuters] U.S. FDA authorizes Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use [Yahoo/Bloomberg] IPO Mania Sweeps Over Robinhood Crowd and Stokes a 111% Rally [CNBC] Texas governor says companies moving headquarters to the state has turned into [...]
December 11, 2020: Unnecessary Head Scratching: Q3 2020 Z.1
Airbnb traded to $165 in early Thursday trading, more than doubling its Wednesday evening $68 IPO price – valuing the company north of $100 billion. After pricing its IPO shares [...]
Friday, December 11, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Slump, Dollar Rebounds Amid Risk-Off Mood: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Dollar ends three weeks of decline as Brexit sours sentiment [CNN] Congress stumbles on a Covid-19 aid package as vaccine approval passes a key [...]
Thursday, December 10, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Drop, Bonds Rise Amid Stimulus Talks: Markets Wrap [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Pound Drops After Leaders Dinner Fails to Break Brexit Impasse [Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Jobless Claims Jump More Than Forecast Amid New Shutdowns [Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Inflation [...]
Wednesday, December 9, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Rise, Bonds Dip Amid Hope for Stimulus Deal: Markets Wrap [Reuters] U.S. House to take up one-week stopgap bill as COVID-19 talks drag on [CNBC] Mortgage rates set 14th record low of the [...]
Tuesday, December 8, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Drop as Virus Cases Rise: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Stocks take a breather, Brexit weighs down sterling [Yahoo/Bloomberg] McConnell Refuses to Endorse Bipartisan Stimulus, Risking Deal [Reuters] U.S. Congress to vote on stopgap [...]
Monday, December 7, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Slide as Pound Drops on Brexit Deadlock: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Stocks ease as Sino-U.S. tensions heat up, fiscal deal awaited [Reuters] Dollar near 2018 lows as traders eye more US stimulus; sterling sheds [...]
Sunday, December 6, 2020
[Reuters] Most of California to be under stay-at-home orders as COVID-19 surges [CNN] Tens of millions in California under stay-at-home order starting Sunday night [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Year’s Final Stretch to Be a Lively One: U.S. Credit [...]
Saturday, December 5, 2020
[AP] California on the brink: Virus rages and closures imminent [Reuters] Wall Street Week Ahead: After blazing energy rally, investors check the fuel gauge [Reuters] Federal student loan payments suspended until end of January [Reuters] [...]
December 4, 2020: Monetary Disorder In Extremis
November non-farm payrolls gained 245,000, only about half the mean forecast – and down from October’s 610,000. It was the weakest job growth since April’s employment debacle. U.S. equities rallied on the disappointing news. A [...]
The Markets Grow Hopeful – December 4, 2020
The Markets Grow Hopeful As optimism grows around the rapid approval and distribution of a COVID-19 vaccine, the markets grow increasingly confident. They continue to climb the proverbial “wall of worry” despite mixed to [...]
Friday, December 4, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Higher After November Jobs Report: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Dollar hits two-and-a-half-year low on risk-on trades, shares buoyant [CNBC] Employment growth slows sharply in November amid coronavirus surge [Reuters] Analysis: As stocks soar, government [...]
Thursday, December 3, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Global Stocks Edge Up to Record Highs; Dollar Dips: Markets Wrap [Reuters] S&P 500 flat as vaccine cheer offsets high jobless claims [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Dollar Is Dropping to Multi-Year Lows Against Peers, One by One [...]
Wednesday, December 2, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Dip; Pound Slides on Brexit Angst: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Dollar clambers off two-and-a-half-year low, risk currencies take breather [Reuters] U.S. private payrolls miss expectations in November: ADP [CNBC] Mortgage demand from homebuyers [...]
Tuesday, December 1, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Bounce Back; Dollar Slips: Markets Wrap [Reuters] After 4.2 million COVID-19 cases in November, U.S. pins hope on vaccine [CNN] Biden readies major stimulus push and flurry of executive actions in first 100 [...]
Monday, November 30, 2020
[CNBC] Stocks fall as Wall Street is set to wrap up a historic November [Reuters] Shares take a breather after stellar month, China data upbeat [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Dollar’s Slump Thrusts Currency Peers to Brink of New [...]
Sunday, November 29, 2020
[CNBC] Congress stalled on stimulus talks and time is running out as millions face a ‘benefits cliff’ [CNBC] Black Friday shopping in stores craters 52% during pandemic as e-commerce sales surge [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Eerie Calm in [...]
Saturday, November 28, 2020
[AP] With no action by Washington, states race to offer virus aid [CNBC] Los Angeles issues stay-home order as coronavirus cases surge out of control [Yahoo] The US could face an 'apocalypse’ by Christmas as [...]
Feeling More Secure, Investors Take On More Risk – November 27, 2020
Feeling More Secure, Investors Take On More Risk As we digest our Thanksgiving turkey, we are also digesting what has become a significant market rotation. At least some of the near-term certainty around the [...]
November 27, 2020: Pondering the New Treasury Secretary
The U.S. Goods Trade Deficit jumped to a then record $76 billion back in July 2008. A few short months later, financial chaos unleashed the “great recession” economic crisis. Traditionally, large trade deficits are evidence [...]
Friday, November 27, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks edge higher after Thanksgiving holiday [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Caution Sets in for Stock Market; Treasuries Climb: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Dollar edges down, set for weekly loss; kiwi having best month since 2013 [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Oil Rally [...]
Thursday, November 26, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stock Rally Pauses as European Cyclicals Retreat: Markets Wrap [Reuters] World shares hold close to record highs; U.S. markets close for Thanksgiving [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Bitcoin Plunges Along With Other Coins [Reuters] America celebrates scaled-back Thanksgiving [...]
Wednesday, November 25, 2020
[AP] Global stocks edge lower after Dow crests 30,000 [Reuters] Dollar under pressure as risk appetite stages a comeback [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks on Track for Record Month; Treasuries Dip: Markets Wrap [Axios] Scoop: Israeli military prepares [...]
Tuesday, November 24, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks rise as Biden transition, vaccine progress lift confidence [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Cyclicals Lead Global Stocks Higher; Dollar Drops: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Oil hits highest since March collapse on vaccine, Biden transition [Reuters] ‘We’re drowning’: COVID [...]
Monday, November 23, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Rise on Vaccine Hopes; Dollar Weakens: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Vaccine progress lift stocks, dollar still sickly [Reuters] Dollar Falls to 2018 Lows as Vaccine Progress Fuels Risk Demand [Reuters] Oil prices extend [...]
Sunday, November 22, 2020
[CNN] Nearly a quarter of all the coronavirus cases in the US were reported in November [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Busy Week for U.S. Economy Builds to Black Friday: Eco Week [Yahoo/Bloomberg] ‘Big War’ in Bonds Escalates as [...]
Saturday, November 21, 2020
[Reuters] G20 to discuss post-pandemic world, back debt relief [Reuters] Mnuchin clawback of Fed funds 'deeply irresponsible,' Biden team says [Reuters] Analysis: Fed faces ill political winds as Biden prepares for White House [Reuters] Explainer: [...]
November 20, 2020: Scorched Earth
November 18 – Reuters (Rodrigo Campos): “Global debt is expected to soar to a record $277 trillion by the end of the year as governments and companies continue to spend in response to the COVID-19 [...]
Friday, November 20, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Mixed; Europe Stocks Rise on Cyclicals: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Stocks gains curbed by end of Fed stimulus, virus concerns [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Mnuchin-Powell Split Shows Rare Discord as Economy Struggles [Yahoo/Bloomberg] ‘Scary’ Winter of Lockdowns [...]
Wednesday, November 18, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stock Rise; Bitcoin Tops $18,000: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Dollar under pressure as vaccine hopes get tested [Yahoo/Bloomberg] China’s Credit Jitters Deepen a Selloff in Government Bonds [AP] Pfizer: COVID-19 shot 95% effective, seeking [...]
Tuesday, November 17, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Global Stocks Fall on Virus Angst; Pound Gains: Markets Wrap [Reuters] S&P, Dow retreat as coronavirus cases spike; Tesla surges [Reuters] Dollar nurses losses amid worries about second coronavirus wave, Biden transition [Reuters] U.S. [...]
Monday, November 16, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Rise on Vaccine News; Bonds Decline: Markets Wrap [Reuters] World stocks head for record high on recovery, vaccine hopes [Reuters] Moderna trial success gives world more hope in race to end pandemic [...]
Sunday, November 15, 2020
[AP] ASEAN, China, other partners sign world’s biggest trade pact [Politico] An Unprecedented Election—and Its Bitter Aftermath—Seen from Across the Country [AP] Violent clashes in DC after Trump backers’ election protest [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Asian Borrowers Close [...]
Saturday, November 14, 2020
[CNBC] U.S. reports record Covid hospitalizations as states roll out restrictions ahead of holidays [Reuters] Wall Street Week Ahead: Stock investors cast wary eye on yield rally [Reuters] Biden aide says no U.S.-wide COVID lockdown [...]
November 13, 2020: Well, That’s Some Weird… Stuff
The “average stock” Value Line Arithmetic Index jumped 6.4% for the week. The NYSE Arca Oil Index surged 19.8%, with the Philadelphia Oil Services Index up 17.4%. The KWB Bank Index rose 11.5%, as the [...]
Turbulence in the Face of Uncertainty – November 13, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Turbulence in the Face of Uncertainty Last week’s volatility spilled into this week as earnings season wound [...]
Friday, November 13, 2020
[Reuters] Futures bounce back as Cisco, Disney jump after results [Reuters] Global stocks flatline, bond yields slide as caution replaces vaccine euphoria [Reuters] Oil falls on coronavirus surge but on track for weekly gain [Yahoo/Bloomberg] [...]
Thursday, November 12, 2020
[CNBC] Stocks lower after Nasdaq’s comeback session [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Global Equity Rally Slows as Treasuries Advance: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Stocks bulls halt their charge [Reuters] Dollar dips, euro bumps higher as sentiment see-saws [Reuters] Shanghai overnight [...]
Wednesday, November 11, 2020
[Reuters] Nasdaq rises 1% as tech stocks snap back [Reuters] Stocks up as vaccine shields against second-wave worries [Reuters] Dollar gains back strength as vaccine optimism wanes [AP] Bidenomics: More stimulus, tougher regulation, and [...]
Tuesday, November 10, 2020
[Reuters] S&P 500 dips after vaccine news rally [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Global Stock Rally Tempers After Vaccine Euphoria: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Biden may face pressure to reshape Powell's Fed in first year [Reuters] Central bankers seek new [...]
Monday, November 9, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Surge as Pfizer Vaccine Study Adds to Biden Win [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Lockdown Winners Fade as Reopen Trade Roars After Covid Data [Reuters] Banks, airlines surge after Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine news [Reuters] Oil Jumps by [...]
Sunday, November 8, 2020
[AP] Biden promotes unity, turns to business of transition [Reuters] Biden returns to battle another economic crisis, but it's no Great Recession [Reuters] Analysis: Clouds gather over battered dollar in aftermath of U.S. election\ [Yahoo/Bloomberg] [...]
Saturday, November 7, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street Weekahead: Small caps join market rally but pandemic could derail them [CNBC] McConnell and Pelosi are once again at odds over the size of a coronavirus stimulus package [Reuters] U.S. daily coronavirus [...]
November 6, 2020: Critical Juncture
We’ve grown accustomed to the “new normal”: Stock market ebullience even as the country suffers through a distressing confluence of hardships. The S&P500 surged 7.3% this week, the strongest weekly advance since April. Though the [...]
Biden – Good for Oil? – November 6, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Biden – Good for Oil? As we write this, it is indeed Groundhog Day in the sense [...]
Friday, November 6, 2020
[AP] Biden ahead in Georgia, Pennsylvania; Trump attacks process [Reuters] Stocks mixed as balance tilts to Biden in U.S. election [Reuters] Dollar steadies, but more losses seen on post-election policy outlook [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Gold Set for [...]
Thursday, November 5, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Tech Rebound Powers Stocks Higher; Treasuries Rise: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Dollar set for biggest three-day drop since March before Fed decision [Reuters] Gold bounces on dollar retreat as markets weigh prospect of Biden win [...]
Wednesday, November 4, 2020
[Reuters] With U.S. presidential election too close to call, Biden bats away Trump victory claim [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Trump-Biden Election Fight May Be Too Close to Call for Days [Politico] What you need to know about the [...]
Tuesday, November 3, 2020
[CNBC] Dow futures rise more than 100 points ahead of U.S. Election Day [Reuters] Asian shares in broad-based rally on eve of U.S. election [Reuters] Oil falls as COVID-19 cases soar, Libya output jumps [Axios] [...]
Monday, November 2, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Surge and Dollar Drops on U.S. Election Day: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Dollar dips to price Biden win on U.S. election day [Reuters] European shares rise as investors bet on clear Biden poll win [...]
Sunday, November 1, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Mideast Stocks Slump on Lower Oil, U.S. Election Risk: Inside EM [AP] GOP tries to save its Senate majority, with or without Trump [Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Faces Biggest Week of 2020 With Election, Fed, Jobs [...]
Saturday, October 31, 2020
[CNBC] Election 2020 live updates: Trump barnstorms Pennsylvania, Biden and Obama campaign in Michigan as campaign enters final weekend [Reuters] Wall Street Week Ahead: Big tech stocks may face post-election headwinds, no matter who [...]
October 30, 2020: Very Dangerous
We’re now only a few days from the most pivotal of elections. Meanwhile, new U.S. Covid infections have surged to pandemic highs (Friday surpassing 100,000 on worldometers), with the virus running rampant throughout the country. [...]
A Difficult Week – October 30, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: A Difficult Week An ebullient market environment has rapidly turned chaotic. The confluence of new COVID lockdowns [...]
Friday, October 30, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Drop on Tech Worry; Europe Stocks Waver: Markets Wrap [Reuters] World stocks take fresh dip as COVID infection rate weighs [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Oil Set for Worst Month Since March as Virus Revival Cuts Travel [...]
Thursday, October 29, 2020
[Reuters] Global stocks steady after second-wave turmoil [Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Higher After GDP, Jobs Data: Markets Wrap [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Oil Falls to Four-Month Low as Renewed Lockdowns Menace Demand [Reuters] Dollar extends gains, commodity currencies slump, [...]
Wednesday, October 28, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Europe Stocks Tumble to 5-Month Low; U.S. Stocks Slide: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Global stocks sink as coronavirus lockdowns loom [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Oil Slumps With Europe’s Coronavirus Restrictions Growing [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Europe Is Leading the Way Down [...]
Tuesday, October 27, 2020
[CNBC] Stocks rise as market tries to rebound from Monday’s big sell-off [Reuters] Dollar struggles as U.S. election uncertainty offsets COVID-19 concerns [Reuters] White House says COVID-19 aid deal seen 'in coming weeks' [CNBC] Home [...]
Monday, October 26, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks dip on surging virus cases, stimulus doubts [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Tech Leads Retreat in Stocks; Dollar Strengthens: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Turkish lira hits new lows on policy, geopolitical concerns [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Oil Slumps Below $39 on [...]
Sunday, October 25, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Saudi Index Drops Most Since May in Final-Hour Slump: Inside EM [AP] Surging coronavirus colors White House race in closing days [Reuters] U.S. disease expert Fauci says vaccine verdict due by early December [Yahoo/Bloomberg] [...]
Saturday, October 24, 2020
[Yahoo Finance] How the 6 swing states will play in the election and in the markets [CNN] Daily Covid-19 cases will hit six digits soon, expert warns, as US reports a one-day high of more [...]
October 23, 2020: The New Massive
A most pivotal election is now only 10 days away. Joe Biden has a commanding lead in the polls. Moreover, betting sites are indicating rising odds of the Democrats taking control of the Senate (PredictIt: [...]
Watching the Horizon Through Rough Waters – October 23, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Watching the Horizon Through Rough Waters Once in a while, we will take our morning coffee and [...]
Tactical Short Strategy – October 22, 2020
Tactical Short Strategy Conference Call - October 22, 2020 Disclaimer: Advisory services are offered by McAlvany Wealth Management, an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The comments [...]
Friday, October 23, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Fluctuate With Intel Taking Tech Lower: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Global stocks bide time as U.S. election caution sets in [Reuters] Oil above $42 as possible OPEC+ cut extension offsets demand concern [Yahoo/Bloomberg] [...]
Thursday, October 22, 2020
[Reuters] Global markets: Sentiment sapped by COVID surge, stimulus stalemate [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Drop, Dollar Gains on Election Interference: Markets Wrap [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Lira Tumbles After Central Bank Defies Rate-Hike Bets [Reuters] Oil struggles to recover after [...]
Wednesday, October 21, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks mixed as investors focus on U.S. stimulus [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Treasuries Slump With Dollar Amid Stimulus Bets: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Yuan hits 27-month high on PBOC guidance, upbeat data [CNBC] Mortgage demand from homebuyers falls [...]
Tuesday, October 20, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street gains as deadline for fresh stimulus looms [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Oil Slides With OPEC+ Warning of Precarious Market Outlook [Reuters] Pelosi, Mnuchin push coronavirus relief talks as U.S. Senate votes on limited bill [Yahoo/Bloomberg] [...]
Monday, October 19, 2020
[CNBC] Stocks rise as traders weigh rising coronavirus cases, U.S. stimulus talks [Reuters] Vaccine hopes drive stocks higher on 'Black Monday' anniversary [CNBC] Treasury yields jump amid renewed stimulus hopes [Reuters] Time’s up: After a [...]
Sunday, October 18, 2020
[Reuters] U.S. Speaker Pelosi says differences remain on testing language in coronavirus relief [Reuters] Senate to vote this week on 'skinny' pandemic relief bill, PPP funds [Reuters] Fed officials call for tougher regulation to prevent [...]
Saturday, October 17, 2020
[Reuters] Coronavirus spending pushes U.S. 2020 fiscal year deficit to record $3.132 trillion [CNBC] U.S. is staring down a ‘substantial third wave’ of coronavirus cases. Here are the numbers [Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Adds Most Cases Since [...]
Backing and Filling Before the Election – October 16, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Backing and Filling Before the Election Earnings season kicked off this week. However, the real focus for [...]
October 16, 2020: Moral Hazard Pinnacle
Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this Thursday, October 22nd, at 4:00pm Eastern/ 2:00pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q3 recap conference call, “Managing Short Exposure in Extreme Uncertainty.” Click here to register. [...]
Friday, October 16, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks climb on vaccine hopes, upbeat retail sales data [Reuters] Markets on edge as pandemic resurgence meets U.S. stimulus hopes [Reuters] Oil falls as possible OPEC+ supply boost, COVID-19 spike weigh on sentiment [Reuters] [...]
Thursday, October 15, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Sink on Despair Over Stimulus, Virus Curbs: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Europe tumbles 2% on COVID curbs and Brexit impasse [Reuters] Oil slides as new lockdown measures threaten demand recovery [CNBC] Jobless claims jump, [...]
Wednesday, October 14, 2020
[Reuters] Shares steady with U.S. bank earnings in sight [Reuters] Oil under pressure as coronavirus spike stokes demand concerns [Reuters] U.S. producer prices accelerate in September [CNBC] Mortgage rates set yet another record low, [...]
Tuesday, October 13, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Edge Lower as Earnings Roll In; Bonds Gain: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Shares struggle as coronavirus overshadows China data [Reuters] U.S. consumer prices slow in September [Reuters] U.S. small business confidence at highest since [...]
Monday, October 12, 2020
[Reuters] Stimulus bets prop up S&P, Nasdaq [Reuters] Stocks boosted by stimulus hopes and China's post-holiday surge [Reuters] Yuan set for biggest daily fall since March; dollar index edges up [Reuters] Oil prices extend losses [...]
Sunday, October 11, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street Week Ahead: U.S. earnings improvement expected, but still a weak quarter [Yahoo Finance] Earnings season starts with big banks: What to know in the week ahead [Yahoo/Bloomberg] The Next Big Shift [...]
Saturday, October 10, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Trump’s Hurdles to Stimulus Climb After Abrupt Tactical Shift [Reuters] U.S. COVID-19 cases hit two-month high, 10 states report record increases [CNBC] Tight race between Joni Ernst and Theresa Greenfield in Iowa could determine [...]
October 9, 2020: Weird
Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany Thursday, October 22nd, at 4:00PM Eastern/ 2:00pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q3 recap conference call, “Managing Short Exposure in Extreme Uncertainty.” Click here to register. The [...]
Sorrows Come Not Single Spies, but in Battalions – October 9, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Sorrows Come Not Single Spies, but in Battalions The World Bank projects that global growth will decline [...]
Friday, October 9, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Rise as Stimulus Talks Weighed: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Stocks surge as hopes grow for U.S. stimulus [Reuter] Dollar falls as likelihood of a Biden victory grows; yuan gains [Yahoo/Bloomberg] White House Open [...]
Thursday, October 8, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Advance on Stimulus Hopes; Dollar Weakens: Markets Wrap [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Oil Gains Above $40 With Hurricane Delta Threatening Gulf Output [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Trump Touts Progress in Stimulus Talks Days After Spiking Them [Reuters] U.S. [...]
Wednesday, October 7, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks bounce after worst session for S&P 500, Dow in two weeks [Reuters] Oil prices slide as Trump cancels aid talks, U.S. crude stocks expand [CNBC] Trump reverses course on coronavirus relief talks, dangles [...]
Tuesday, October 6, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Mixed Before Powell; European Stocks Gain: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Stocks inch to two-week high after Trump leaves hospital [Reuters] Oil prices gain on supply disruptions, Trump's hospital exit [Reuters] U.S. trade deficit jumps [...]
Monday, October 5, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street jumps on stimulus hopes, hints of Trump hospital discharge [Reuters] Global stocks rise as signs of Trump's improving health calm markets [CNBC] Trump and medical team will decide later Monday whether he’s [...]
Sunday, October 4, 2020
[Reuters] Trump's diagnosis fuels uncertainty for skittish U.S. stock market [CBS] Live updates: Trump's doctor says he's "not out of the woods," but "cautiously optimistic" [Reuters] Coronavirus live updates: Trump is ‘not yet out of [...]
Saturday, October 2, 2020
[Reuters] Trump to spend days at military hospital after COVID-19 diagnosis [CNBC] Ron Johnson is the third Republican senator to test positive for coronavirus in two days [CNBC] ‘Massively concerning’ jobs report sends a signal [...]
October 2, 2020: COVID Uncertainties
It significantly raises the stakes for a potential nightmare scenario: with less than five weeks until election day, the President contracts COVID-19. As if this election cycle wasn’t chaotic enough. As CNN put it: “A [...]
Friday, October 2, 2020
[CNN] President Donald Trump tweets he and first lady Melania Trump test positive for Covid-19 [Reuters] Stocks sink as Trump tests positive for COVID-19 [Reuters] Oil drops 4% after Trump's positive coronavirus test [CNBC] U.S. [...]
Thursday, October 1, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Climb on Stimulus Hopes: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Global shares extend gains on U.S. stimulus, upbeat data [Reuters] Dollar gives ground as hopes of US stimulus leads traders to riskier currencies [Reuters] White House [...]
Wednesday, September 30, 2020
[Reuters] Global stocks pull back as acrimonious U.S. debate stokes caution [Reuters] Oil extends losses as rising virus cases spur demand worries [Reuters] Dollar holds line after Trump, Biden clash in first debate [Reuters] Chaotic [...]
Tuesday, September 29, 2020
[CNBC] U.S. stocks little changed following Monday’s rally [CNBC] Shares lose ground as U.S. presidential debate looms [Reuters] U.S. goods trade deficit widens in August [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: Death toll exceeds 1 million people [...]
Monday, September 28, 2020
[Reuters] Banks, travel stocks lead Wall Street higher [Reuters] Stocks bounce as China industrial profits rise [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Oil Erases Losses With Dollar Falling But Uncertain Demand Looms [Yahoo/Bloomberg] JPMorgan Says Usual Hedges Aren’t Working as [...]
Sunday, September 27, 2020
[Reuters] Rise in virus cases adds to economic uncertainty ahead of U.S. election [CNBC] Fewer than 10% of Americans show signs of past coronavirus infection, study finds [Reuters] BoE's Tenreyro says evidence on negative rates [...]
Saturday, September 26, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street Week Ahead: Trump-Biden debate could spark stock volatility [Reuters] Trump says U.S. election winner might not be known for months [Reuters] Rise in virus cases adds to economic uncertainty ahead of U.S. [...]
September 25, 2020: Extraordinary Q2 2020 Z.1 Flow of Funds
The numbers are just monstrous. The Fed’s own data illuminate the historic Monetary Disorder that today runs wild. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Treasuries. Debt and Equities Securities. The banking system. The Household balance sheet. [...]
Parsing the Correction – September 25, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Parsing the Correction The markets have entered a corrective phase as they look ahead. Uncertainty looms around [...]
Friday, September 25, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Drop With Europe; Bonds Gain: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Global stocks set for dire week, best for dollar since April [Reuters] Dollar back in demand, set for biggest weekly surge since early April [...]
Thursday, September 24, 2020
[Reuters] Shares slide, dollar up as hopes of economic recovery fade [Reuters] Dollar holds advantage as money flees from risk assets [Reuters] Oil falls on fuel demand growth concerns as coronavirus lingers [Reuters] U.S. weekly [...]
Wednesday, September 23, 2020
[Reuters] Asian stocks struggle to build on Wall Street gains, dollar rises [Reuters] Oil falls after surprise rise in U.S. crude inventories [Reuters] China has no reason to approve 'dirty' TikTok deal: China Daily [Reuters] [...]
Tuesday, September 22, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Rise as Tech Gain Tempers Virus Woes: Markets Wrap [Yahoo/Bloomberg] China Sets Weaker Yuan Fix in First Sign Record Rally May Slow [Reuters] Dollar bounceback pauses, Aussie and Kiwi regain lost ground [Reuters] [...]
Monday, September 21, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Tumble Most Since July; Treasuries Rise: Markets Wrap [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Treasuries Rally After Jump in Virus Cases Risks Fresh Lockdowns [CNBC] Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan lead drop in financial shares amid report the banks moved [...]
Sunday, September 20, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] World’s Central Banks Adjust to Fed Three-Year Plan: Week Ahead [Reuters] If U.S. election winds up in Supreme Court, Ginsburg's death will loom large [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Powell Calling New Rate Road Map ‘Powerful’ Doesn’t [...]
Saturday, September 19, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street Weekahead: Corporate debt frenzy rolls on as worries loom over markets [Reuters] Amid mourning for Ginsburg, fierce battle over U.S. Supreme Court looms [AP] AP Explains: What happens with the Supreme Court [...]
September 18, 2020: Revisiting “Coin in the Fuse Box”
September 17 – Wall Street Journal (Greg Ip): “Can words take the place of actions? The Federal Reserve hopes so. On Wednesday it issued a policy statement promising to get inflation above 2%. In their [...]
Trump, Biden, and Markets – September 18, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Trump, Biden, and Markets There is always risk around election season, but perhaps never as great as [...]
Friday, September 18, 2020
[CNBC] U.S. stocks are mixed after Dow snaps a 4-day winning streak [Reuters] Global stocks weighed down by virus angst, lack of stimulus [Reuters] Oil prices fall after Haftar signals Libya output to resume [Reuters] [...]
Thursday, September 17, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks buckle, dollar stirs as divided Fed disappoints [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Fall, Bonds Gain as Recovery Risk Lingers: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Oil steady as demand worries revive, crews return to U.S. Gulf rigs [Reuters] U.S. [...]
Wednesday, September 16, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street higher as focus turns to Fed meet [Reuters] Shares rally, dollar falls ahead of Fed meeting [Reuters] Dollar falls as markets increase bets on more Fed easing [Reuters] China lifts yuan midpoint [...]
Tuesday, September 15, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street higher ahead of two-day Fed meet [Reuters] Gold gains as dollar softens ahead of Fed meeting [Reuters] Yuan extends gains to 16-month high as China data boosts risk appetite [AP] Federal Reserve [...]
Monday, September 14, 2020
[CNBC] Stocks jump as Wall Street tries to recover after tech struggles [Reuters] Vaccine hopes lift world stocks, but caution creeps in [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Oil Falls Near $37 With Demand in Focus Before OPEC+ Meeting [CNBC] [...]
Sunday, September 13, 2020
[AP] What’s next? Devastating fires are latest challenge in West [Reuters] Japan's Suga says no limit to bonds government can issue [Reuters] Argentina's Guzman says seeking payment pause with IMF until 2024 - report [Reuters] [...]
Saturday, September 12, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street Week Ahead: Fed meeting in focus as stocks wobble and coronavirus bill stalls [AP] US budget deficit hits record $3 trillion through 11 months [Reuters] Japan's Suga, likely next PM, says ready [...]
September 11, 2020: State-Directed Credit Splurge
New data released Friday confirm ongoing historic Chinese Credit excess. Total Aggregate Financing increased (a ridiculous) $524 billion during August to $40.5 TN, doubling July’s growth and exceeding estimates by almost 40%. It was the [...]
Another Rough Week Yields Mixed Results – September 11, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Another Rough Week Yields Mixed Results The market pullback has continued into this week as investors begin [...]
Friday, September 11, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks rebound as tech rises; Oracle delivers strong quarter [Reuters] Shares struggle to shake off bearish mood as U.S. tech giants fall anew [Reuters] Oil drops on higher inventories, weak U.S. stock markets [Reuters] [...]
Thursday, September 10, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks struggle after tech reboot, euro in ECB crosshairs [CNBC] Weekly jobless claims miss estimates as employment gains taper off [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Meltdown Memories Grip Southeast Asia Stocks as Indonesia Slumps [CNBC] European Central Bank [...]
Wednesday, September 9, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks bounce after tech rout sends Nasdaq into correction [Reuters] Shares resilient after U.S. tech sell-off, vaccine trial delay [Reuters] Oil prices reverse some losses but demand concerns persist [Reuters] U.S. readies bans [...]
Tuesday, September 8, 2020
[CNBC] Nasdaq futures drop 3% as tech sell-off continues, Dow futures fall 250 points [Reuters] Stocks struggle as tech remains fragile, pound slides [Reuters] Oil slides over 3% to lowest since June on demand fears [...]
Monday, September 7, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Nasdaq Futures Resume Declines With Valuation Angst Lingering [Yahoo/Bloomberg] British Pound Plummets After Specter of a No-Deal Brexit Returns [Reuters] With big tech on holiday, world shares inch higher [Reuters] Oil falls after Saudi [...]
Sunday, September 6, 2020
[Reuters] Wall St Week Ahead-U.S. stock market surge may run into scary September [CNBC] U.S. considers blacklisting China’s largest chipmaker as tech tensions escalate [Reuters] California grid operator warns of rotating power outages in record [...]
A Rough Week in a Hard Year – September 4, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: A Rough Week in a Hard Year A week that started out manifesting the same sort of [...]
Saturday, September 5, 2020
[CNBC] The stock market shakeout is likely not over yet, even with Friday’s comeback [Reuters] Japan's Suga signals ultra-easy monetary policy to continue [Reuters] Masked men drag protesting Belarusian students off the streets [WSJ] Voters [...]
September 4, 2020: Summer of 2020
QE fundamentally changed finance. What commenced at the Federal Reserve with a post-mortgage finance Bubble, $1 TN Treasury buying operation morphed into open-ended purchases of Treasuries, MBS, corporate bonds and even corporate ETFs holding high-yield [...]
Friday, September 4, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Trade Mixed After Jobs Report: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Asian stocks slip after Wall Street selloff dents tech rally [Reuters] U.S. job growth slows in August, unemployment rate falls to 8.4% [CNBC] [...]
Thursday, September 3, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks dip as Wall Street takes a breather after a strong start to September [Reuters] Dollar gains further on worries ECB grew uncomfortable with euro rise [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Oil Drops Again With OPEC Supply and [...]
Wednesday, September 2, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks climb as recovery hopes gather strength [Reuters] Dollar extends gains, Aussie lags, euro backtracks from $1.20 high [Reuters] U.S. private payrolls increase modestly in August: ADP [CNBC] Mortgage demand from homebuyers is now [...]
Tuesday, September 1, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Climb as Dollar Touches Two-Year Low: Markets Wrap [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Gold Rebounds Toward $2,000 After Dollar Drops to Two-Year Low [Reuters] Dollar dumped on rate outlook, Aussie looks to RBA [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Yuan’s Jump [...]
Monday, August 31, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Equities Fluctuate; Bonds Decline: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Stocks set for five months of gains as stimulus fuels highs [AP] Uncertainty dominates presidential campaign’s final stretch [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Insider Trading Is Rife With No Regulators [...]
Sunday, August 30, 2020
[Reuters] What's next as Japan PM Abe quits, potential successors [Reuters] China's big banks brace for lagging COVID-19 risks as bad loans rise [AP] India records world’s biggest single-day jump in virus cases [Bloomberg] TikTok [...]
Saturday, August 29, 2020
[Reuters] White House suggests $1.3 trillion coronavirus aid bill; Pelosi says not enough [Reuters] Turkey to hold military exercise off Cyprus amid Mediterranean tensions [Reuters] Xi says China to step up efforts to fight 'splittism' [...]
August 28, 2020: It’s About Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
The Wall Street Journal referred to a “a milestone” – “a major shift in how [the Fed] sets interest rates by dropping its longstanding practice of preemptively lifting them to head off higher inflation.” The [...]
Will Energy Rise from the Ashes? – August 27, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Will Energy Rise from the Ashes? Amidst the so-called summer market doldrums this week, a quiet but [...]
Friday, August 28, 2020
[CNBC] Stocks rise to end the week as Dow tries to erase losses for 2020 [Reuters] Yen surges as Japan's Abe quits, stocks mixed after Fed shift [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Gold Rebounds on Weaker Dollar as Investors [...]
Thursday, August 27, 2020
[CNBC] Dow rises by 100 points as Fed announces new inflation approach that could keep rates low [Reuters] Rouble slides again as Putin says Belarus asked for help [CNBC] Powell announces new Fed approach to [...]
Wednesday, August 26, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Fluctuate Near Record Highs; Dollar Gains: Markets Wrap [CNBC] U.S. core capital goods orders slow in July from prior month, while durable goods orders surge 11.2% [Reuters] Framework review complete, Fed's Powell starts [...]
Tuesday, August 25, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Climb on Trade Optimism: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Asian stocks mostly higher as trade, virus treatment hopes lift mood [Reuters] As uncertainty threatens U.S. growth, Fed seeks more firepower [Reuters] China agrees with [...]
Monday, August 24, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Rally on Vaccine Hopes; Dollar Weakens: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Global stocks thrive on coronavirus treatment hopes [Reuters] Dollar falls, riskier currencies gain, ahead of Republican convention [Reuters] Oil prices steady as 'double [...]
Sunday, August 23, 2020
[Reuters] Trump says could 'decouple' and not do business with China [Reuters] California seeks help as wildfires threaten communities [Yahoo/Bloomberg] The Day California Went Dark Was a Crisis Years in the Making [Bloomberg] Bond Traders [...]
Saturday, August 22, 2020
[Reuters] California governor calls wildfires 'deadly moment,' urges residents to flee [Reuters] Wall Street Week Ahead: No elk or trout, but Fed's virtual retreat may stoke market's 'animal spirits' [WSJ] Covid-19 Is Dividing the American [...]
August 21, 2020: Moral Hazard Quagmire
The Nasdaq100 (NDX) jumped another 3.5% this week, increasing 2020 gains to 32.3%. Amazon gained 4.3% during the week, boosting y-t-d gains to 77.8% – and market capitalization to $1.626 TN. Apple surged 8.2% this [...]
Friday, August 21, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Lose Oomph; Bonds Gain With Dollar: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Waning European recovery saps stocks momentum, knocks euro [Reuters] Euro sinks as business rebound stutters in August [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Oil Extends Decline With Demand Headwinds [...]
Thursday, August 20, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Slide, Bonds Rise After Jobs Data: Markets Wrap [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Traders Dump TSMC, Samsung in Worst Day in Asia Tech Since March [Reuters] Oil and stocks fall as markets still rattled by Fed minutes [...]
Wednesday, August 19, 2020
[Reuters] Shares gain as Wall Street record outweighs jitters over growth [Reuters] Dollar struggles near 27-month lows as Fed minutes eyed [Reuters] Oil slips as demand worries outweigh U.S. stocks draw [Reuters] U.S. official sees [...]
Tuesday, August 18, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Climb on Housing Data; Dollar Slips: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Gold climbs back above $2,000/oz level as dollar slides [Reuters] Dollar touches more than 2-year low as traders push euro longs to record [...]
Monday, August 17, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Rise With Europe Stocks; Metals Climb: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Europe stuck on the ground as China markets jump [Reuters] Dollar on defensive as markets eye U.S. politics, Fed minutes [CNBC] Pelosi to [...]
The Once and Future Shakeup in Oil and Gas – August 15, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: The Once and Future Shakeup in Oil and Gas Although there are stocks and entire sectors making [...]
Saturday, August 15, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street Week Ahead: Biden victory? Disputed election? Wall Street prices in November outcomes [CNBC] ‘It’s nerve-racking’ — Millions of Americans are still furloughed and unsure when they will return to work [Reuters] Exclusive: [...]
August 14, 2020: Safe Haven Treasuries Not So Safe
A “sloppy” auction saw 30-year Treasury yields surge 21 bps this week to 1.45%, an almost seven-week closing high. Ten-year Treasury yields jumped 14 bps to 0.71%, while benchmark MBS yields rose 17 bps to [...]
Friday, August 14, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street retreats as China data disappoints [Reuters] World shares sink as data points to tepid economic revival [Reuters] Dollar steadies, index heads for worst weekly run in decade [Reuters] Euro zone bonds sell-off [...]
Thursday, August 13, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street edges up as weekly jobless claims drop [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Gold Advances After Wild Swings as Investors Weigh Next Steps [CNBC] U.S. weekly jobless claims fell to 963,000, first time below 1 million [...]
Wednesday, August 12, 2020
[Reuters] Global stocks shake off stimulus doubts, gold goes wild [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Gold’s Wild Ride Continues as Prices Bounce Back [Reuters] U.S. consumer prices accelerate in July [CNBC] Another record low mortgage rate juiced weekly demand, [...]
Tuesday, August 11, 2020
[Reuters] U.S. S&P500 heads for record high as stimulus bets lift world stocks [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Jump Worldwide While Dollar Drops With Gold: Markets Wrap [Reuters] U.S. producer prices beat expectations in July [Reuters] China's [...]
Monday, August 10, 2020
[Reuters] Shares edge up as positive China industrial data outweighs trade jitters [MarketWatch] Gold rises as China-U.S. tensions escalate [Reuters] Oil climbs on positive China data, rising demand [Reuters] Pelosi, Mnuchin open door to narrower [...]
Sunday, August 9, 2020
[CNBC] Trump signs measure to provide extra $400 in weekly unemployment benefits [AP] Trump orders encroach on Congress’ powers, invite challenges [AP] US reaches 5 million confirmed coronavirus cases [Reuters] U.S. health chief arrives in [...]
Saturday, August 8, 2020
Understandably, attention remains focused on the dominant U.S. tech stocks, record highs in Nasdaq, sector rotation opportunities, and the Robinhood phenomenon. It’s a mania, after all. There are as well stimulus negotiations and the administration’s [...]
August 7, 2020: Global Lender of Last Resort
Understandably, attention remains focused on the dominant U.S. tech stocks, record highs in Nasdaq, sector rotation opportunities, and the Robinhood phenomenon. It’s a mania, after all. There are as well stimulus negotiations and the administration’s [...]
When Safety Is Dangerous – August 7, 2020
Here’s the news of the week - and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: When Safety Is Dangerous Earnings season is beginning to wind down, and the impression we get from [...]
Friday, August 7, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street dips on slowing job growth, U.S.-China tensions [Reuters] Global equities snap four-day rally on U.S.-China frictions; dollar firm [CNBC] Payrolls increase by nearly 1.8 million, topping expectations despite coronavirus resurgence [AP] Virus [...]
Thursday, August 6, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks slip as investors wait for U.S. stimulus [Reuters] Gold scales record peak as gloomy economic outlook bolsters appeal [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Turkey’s Lira Hits Record Low as Interventions Fail to Stem Drop [CNBC] U.S. weekly [...]
Wednesday, August 5, 2020
[Reuters] Gold shines on falling dollar, yields; pandemic cost concerns drag on shares [Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Climb With European Stocks and Gold: Markets Wrap [CNBC] Asia Pacific stocks mixed as uncertainty over U.S. coronavirus relief [...]
Tuesday, August 4, 2020
[Reuters] Wall St. dips as U.S.-China tensions heat up over TikTok [Reuters] World shares hit five-month high; mixed earnings knock European shares [AP] ‘A line in the sand’: Both sides dig in on virus relief [...]
Monday, August 3, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Climb With Europe Stocks; Bonds Drop: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Summer mood swings: markets turn higher on hopes of virus aid [Reuters] Dollar rallies after weakest month in a decade [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Fed [...]
Sunday, August 2, 2020
[Reuters] Congressional Democrats, White House still at impasse over coronavirus bill [CNBC] Retail rents plummet across New York City, as America’s glitzy shopping districts turn into ghost towns [AP] As school begins amid virus, parents [...]
The Latest HARD ASSETS INSIGHTS – August 1, 2020
Weekly Hard Assets Insights By David McAlvany Earnings season was in full swing for the week ended July 31, 2020. 40 percent of the market cap of the NASDAQ reported after the market close [...]
Saturday, August 1, 2020
[Reuters] Congressional Democrats, White House set for Saturday talks on coronavirus bill [AP] Trump, GOP soften on opposition to $600 jobless benefit [Reuters] Wall Street Week Ahead: After monster rally, investors cautious as U.S. recovery [...]
July 31, 2020: Precarious World
Another fascinating – if not comforting – week. A Friday Wall Street Journal headline: “Big Tech’s Embarrassment of Riches – Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google all show resilience during pandemic while undergoing congressional scrutiny.” Amazon, [...]
Friday, July 31, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Rise; Gold Hits Record: Markets Wrap [Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Dollar Suffers Its Worst Month in a Decade [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Gold Sets Fresh Record Heading for Best Month in Eight Years [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Bond Yields Are [...]
Thursday, July 30, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Retreat as Earnings Roll In: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Stocks fall as Fed's pledge relief rally fades [Yahoo] Donald Trump calls for delay to 2020 US presidential election [AP] US economy shrank at [...]
Wednesday, July 29, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Mixed Before Fed; Treasuries Keep Advance: Markets Wrap [MarketWatch] Gold edges higher ahead of Fed decision [AP] Fed wrestles with its next moves as virus stalls US economy [Reuters] Fed faces viral wave, [...]
Tuesday, July 28, 2020
[Reuters] Wall St. slips on tough stimulus talks, mixed earnings [Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Slip; Gold Retreats From $2,000: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Gold drops off record high, dollar gets respite [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Asian Stocks Pare Advance as [...]
Monday, July 27, 2020
[Reuters] Gold roars to record high, dollar dives again [CNBC] Stocks rise ahead of big week of earnings, coronavirus stimulus in focus [Reuters] Dollar struggles amid Sino-U.S. tensions, coronavirus woes [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Gold Rips Up Record [...]
Sunday, July 26, 2020
[Reuters] Staff leaving U.S. Chengdu consulate under high security as deadline looms [CNBC] Here are five charts illustrating U.S. economic trends amid the coronavirus pandemic [CNBC] Op-Ed: The U.S.-China clash has entered perilous new territory [...]
Rumors of CV19’s Death are Premature – July 24, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Rumors of CV19’s Death are Premature The effects of the COVID-19 crisis are likely to linger for [...]
Saturday, July 25, 2020
[AP] No virus bill yet: White House, GOP at odds over jobless aid [Reuters] Wall Street Week Ahead: Investors hedging, worry about exuberance, as U.S. risks rise [Reuters] Record numbers of coronavirus cases in every [...]
July 24, 2020: Crossing Red Lines
The Shanghai Composite traded as high as 3,382 during Tuesday trading, before reversing 5.5% lower to end the week at 3,192. The Shanghai Composite previously surged 16% over eight sessions (June 30th to July 9th), [...]
Tactical Short Strategy – July 23, 2020
Tactical Short Strategy Conference Call - July 23, 2020 Q2 Recap Conference Call – July 23, 2020: Good afternoon everyone, thank you for joining us for the second quarter recap conference call. [...]
Friday, July 24, 2020
[CNBC] Stocks back off on U.S.-China frictions; Intel sinks [CNBC] China markets extend losses, Shenzhen stocks dive beyond 5% as U.S.-China tensions flare [Reuters] World shares retreat on rise in Sino-US tensions [Reuters] Oil [...]
Thursday, July 23, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks gain as upbeat earnings outweigh U.S.-China tensions [Reuters] Dollar hits four-month low, yuan recovers as Sino-U.S. tensions simmer [CNBC] U.S. weekly jobless claims total 1.416 million, vs 1.3 million expected [CNBC] Mnuchin says [...]
Wednesday, July 22, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks retreat as Sino-U.S. relations sour [Reuters] Gold hits highest since 2011 on stimulus bets, silver at near 7-year peak [Reuters] Currency markets resume risk-on rally, shrugging off U.S.-China consulate spat [Reuters] U.S. orders [...]
Tuesday, July 21, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street climbs on upbeat earnings reports, stimulus hopes [Reuters] Gold jumps to nine-year peak on tepid dollar and stimulus [Reuters] EU recovery fund lifts shares to five-month high [AP] Senate panel now likely [...]
Monday, July 20, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Mixed Amid Dollar Rise; China Sees Gains: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Euro, euro zone bond markets hold out hope for recovery fund; stocks higher [Reuters] Italian bond yields fall to early March lows on [...]
Sunday, July 19, 2020
[Reuters] Germany's Merkel warns of summit failure on EU recovery fund [AP] EU leaders extend summit as they haggle over budget, virus [AP] As virus surges in some US states, emergency rooms swamped [Reuters] WHO [...]
Saturday, July 18, 2020
[AP] No end in sight, Congress confronts new virus crisis rescue [AP] Breathtaking virus numbers show normal life still far away [Reuters] Dutch welcome new ideas on EU recovery fund but deal far off [CNBC] [...]
July 17, 2020: Drone Money
Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this coming Thursday, July 23rd, at 4:00PM Eastern/ 2:00pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q2 recap conference call, “Confirmation of the Global [...]
Friday, July 17, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street higher on optimism over economic recovery [Reuters] Where did all the bulls go? Rallies stall as EU summit begins [CNBC] U.S. housing starts total 1.186 million in June, vs 1.169 million expected [...]
Thursday, July 16, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Retreat; Euro Steady After ECB: Markets Wrap [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Worst China Stocks Selloff Since February Caps Brutal Reversal [Reuters] Dollar climbs as traders focus on weak Chinese retail sales [Reuters] Global debt hits [...]
Wednesday, July 15, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks gain as vaccine hopes offset U.S.-China tensions [Reuters] Dollar hits one-month low; riskier currencies gain on vaccine hopes [CNBC] U.S. reports record 67,400 single-day spike of new coronavirus cases [Reuters] Coronavirus cost [...]
Tuesday, July 14, 2020
[Reuters] Lockdown in global tech hub hits stocks [CNBC] U.S. consumer price index rose 0.6% in June, vs 0.5% increase expected [Reuters] JPMorgan beats estimates on trading, but loan losses loom [CNBC] Coronavirus updates: Hong [...]
Monday, July 13, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Rise on Policy Optimism; Dollar Declines: Markets Wrap [CNBC] Stock futures rise as investors shake off a continued spike in coronavirus cases [Reuters] Shares eye five-month peak as earnings season starts [Reuters] Dollar [...]
Sunday, July 12, 2020
[CNN] US Covid-19 cases are climbing but some state and local leaders clash over moves to curb the spread [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Homegrown Buyers Pick Up Treasury’s Tab to Fund Record Deficits [Yahoo/Bloomberg] China Gives World First [...]
Saturday, July 11, 2020
[Reuters] U.S. sets record for new COVID cases third day in a row at over 69,000 [The Hill] Dozens of Florida hospitals max out of ICU capacity amid surge in COVID-19 cases [Reuters] Chinese [...]
July 10, 2020: Utmost Crazy
The Shanghai Composite surged 7.3% this week, increasing y-t-d gains to 10.9%. The CSI 300 rose 7.6%, with 2020 gains of 16.0%. China’s growth-oriented ChiNext Index’s 12.8% surge boosted year-to-date gains to 54.5%. Copper jumped [...]
Gold: Seeing the Unseen – July 10, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Gold: Seeing the Unseen The COVID-19 crisis continues to drag on. Cases make daily highs, and the [...]
Friday, July 10, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks jittery as record U.S. virus count curbs risk appetite [Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Treasuries Lead Rally in Long-Dated Bonds on Haven Demand [CNBC] U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fall in June [Reuters] Fed balance sheet below [...]
Thursday, July 9, 2020
[CNBC] Stocks higher as tech shares rise again, jobless claims better than expected [Reuters] China charges on, gold reaches nine-year high [Reuters] Gold holds above $1,800 as virus cases spike [Reuters] U.S. weekly jobless claims [...]
Wednesday, July 8, 2020
[Reuters] Global shares waver on coronavirus fears [Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Drift, European Stocks Trim Decline: Markets Wrap [MarketWatch] Gold prices extend climb above 9-year high as traders see few limits to central-bank stimulus [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Trump [...]
Tuesday, July 7, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks ease after five-day run as virus worries weigh [AP] Global stocks slip as virus outbreaks dim hopes for rebound [Reuters] Pompeo says U.S. looking at banning Chinese social media apps, including TikTok: Fox [...]
Monday, July 6, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks rally to four-week highs as investors bet on China revival [CNBC] Dow futures jump more than 350 points as Wall Street tries to build on winning week [CNBC] Shanghai soars nearly 6%, leading [...]
Sunday, July 5, 2020
[AP] US holiday fuels worries about skyrocketing virus cases [Reuters] WHO reports record daily increase in global coronavirus cases, up more than 212,000 [Reuters] ECB’s Villeroy Says Pandemic Is Forcing Permanent Policy Change [Bloomberg] Goldman [...]
Saturday, July 4, 2020
[Reuters] Across Sun Belt, hopes for economy give way to renewed fears [Reuters] Russia says China would be needed in expanded G7 summit: TASS [Reuters] U.S. sends carriers to South China Sea during Chinese drills [...]
July 3, 2020: Two Down, Two to Go
“U.S. Stocks Finish Best Quarter in More Than 20 Years” – yet another extraordinary period worthy of documenting in some detail. The S&P500 returned 20.5%, led by energy companies Halliburton (up 89.5%) and Marathon Oil [...]
Friday, July 3, 2020
[AP] World stocks mostly turn lower with US closed for holiday [Reuters] Global Markets: COVID recovery vs COVID reality [Reuters] Dollar rises as risk appetite tempered by rising COVID-19 cases in U.S. [Reuters] U.S. reports [...]
Thursday, July 2, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Rise After Jobs Report; Bonds Fall: Markets Wrap [CNBC] US jobs increase by 4.8 million in June, vs 2.9 million estimate; unemployment rate at 11.1% [CNBC] Weekly jobless claims rise more than expected [...]
Wednesday, July 1, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Fluctuate as New Quarter Starts: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Global shares begin second half with a whimper despite positive data [Reuters] U.S. employers announced more job cuts in June: report [CNBC] Mortgage demand [...]
Tuesday, June 30, 2020
[Reuters] Virus fears lead stocks lower after strong quarterly rebound [Reuters] European shares pick up, dollar gains before quarter-end [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Gold Heads for Biggest Quarterly Gain Since 2016 on Virus Woes [Reuters] Wall Street faces [...]
Monday, June 29, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Rise With Europe Stocks; Dollar Slips: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Oil prices drop for second straight session as coronavirus spike cools demand hopes [CNBC] California orders bars to close in Los Angeles and [...]
Sunday, June 28, 2020
[Reuters] Wall St Week Ahead-RPT-Investors eye economic data, stimulus measures as stocks rally stalls [Reuters] Global coronavirus cases exceed 10 million [Reuters] China's central bank says economy faces risks from global pandemic, efforts against domestic [...]
Saturday, June 27, 2020
[Reuters] New pandemic clampdowns in Texas, Florida rattle business owners [AP] Bar owners worry as virus surges in their workplaces [Reuters] New U.S. coronavirus cases hit 45,242 for biggest one-day increase of pandemic [CNBC] Credit [...]
June 26, 2020: More W than V
The much vaunted “V” recovery is improbable. To simplify, a somewhat “w”-looking scenario is a higher probability. After such an abrupt and extraordinary collapse in economic activity, a decent bounce was virtually assured. Millions would [...]
Déjà vu or a Bump in the Road to Riches? – June 26, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Déjà vu or a Bump in the Road to Riches? This week, the reopening trade and the [...]
Friday, June 26, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street lower as banks fall, virus cases surge [Reuters] Global stocks, oil and euro gain despite surging coronavirus cases [AP] US consumer spending up 8.2%, partly erasing record plunge [CNBC] Coronavirus mortgage bailouts [...]
Thursday, June 25, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks fall on virus fears ahead of jobless claims [Reuters] Oil prices fall further on virus fears, U.S. crude stock build [CNBC] U.S. hits highest single day of new coronavirus cases with more than [...]
Wednesday, June 24, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street lower as coronavirus cases flare up [Reuters] Gold shines as coronavirus surge unnerves investors [Reuters] Oil prices slides as U.S. crude stockpile growth heightens oversupply fears [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Gold Poised to Challenge $1,800 [...]
Tuesday, June 23, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Equities Rise With Europe Stocks; Dollar Slips: Markets Wrap [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Oil Climbs to Three-Month High on Demand Strength, Trade Hopes [Reuters] White House adviser Navarro walks back on comments China trade deal 'over' [...]
Monday, June 22, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Rise as Investors Assess Virus Count [Reuters] Global stocks shrug off fresh virus wave fears, dollar slips [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Gold Drives Toward Highest Since 2012 on Virus Resurgence Concern [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: [...]
Sunday, June 21, 2020
[CNBC] U.S. banks are ‘swimming in money’ as deposits increase by $2 trillion amid the coronavirus [Reuters] Inflation dog may finally bark, investors bet [Reuters] Brazil just shy of 50,000 coronavirus deaths, over 1 million [...]
Market Is Climbing a Wall of Worry Over a Second Shutdown – June 19, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Market Is Climbing a Wall of Worry Over a Second Shutdown Animal Spirits continue to roll on [...]
Saturday, June 20, 2020
[Reuters] Trump delights supporters, alarms health officials with Tulsa rally [Reuters] Wall Street Week Ahead: Healthcare to get growth bump in COVID-19 influenced Russell remake [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Oil Companies Shutting Off Drilling Rigs Across U.S. Shale [...]
June 19, 2020: Update COVID-19
Can we even attempt a reasonable discussion? Someone’s got this wrong. June 12 – Reuters (Judy Hua, Cate Cadell, Winni Zhou and Andrew Galbraith): “A Beijing district put itself on a ‘wartime’ footing and the [...]
Friday, June 19, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street Rises on recovery optimism [Reuters] Running on 'hopium': Explaining the market rally in Wall Street's terms [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Quadruple Witching Set to Add Fuel to Month of Stock Turbulence [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: [...]
Thursday, June 18, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Decline; Treasuries Rise: Markets Wrap [Reuters] World stocks drift lower as second wave virus fears mount [Reuters] Coronavirus second wave fears boost yen; Aussie dollar falls after data [Reuters] U.S. weekly jobless [...]
Wednesday, June 17, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks grind higher on recovery hopes [Reuters] Dollar regains ground as investors take refuge from murky outlook [CNBC] Homebuyer mortgage demand spikes to 11-year high, as rates hit another record low [MarketWatch] Housing starts [...]
Tuesday, June 16, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks jump on stimulus hopes ahead of retail sales report [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Global Stock Rally Returns on Fresh Stimulus Hopes: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Stimulus splurge restarts stocks rally [AP] US retail sales up a record [...]
Monday, June 15, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Drop, Bonds Up on Second-Wave Worries: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Stocks, oil under pressure amid fears of second wave of pandemic [Reuters] Aussie, kiwi, and yuan fall on worries about second wave of [...]
Sunday, June 14, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Millions of Jobs Could Be Permanently Lost in Reallocation Shock [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Bond Traders Grasp Grim Reality of Economy’s Long Recovery Slog [Yahoo] Stocks of bankrupt companies going bananas despite companies being broke [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Kuwait [...]
Saturday, June 13, 2020
[Reuters] U.S.'s Pompeo to meet China's top diplomat in Hawaii seeking to ease tensions: media [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Fed Warns of Significant Financial-Sector Vulnerabilities [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Robinhood Market Made Bursting Bubbles Wall Street’s Obsession [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Renaissance Technologies Posts [...]
June 12, 2020: Extraordinary Q1 2020 Z.1 Flow of Funds
Financial crisis erupted in March. The Fed slashed rates at a March 3rd emergency meeting – and then began aggressively expanding its holdings/balance sheet (creating market liquidity). Even from a “flow of funds” perspective, it [...]
Plus Ça Change, Plus C’est La Même Chose – June 12, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Plus Ça Change, Plus C'est La Même Chose We remember the late 1990s so well. It was [...]
Friday, June 12, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Bounce Back; Treasuries Decline: Markets Wrap [Reuters] World shares stem losses, oil gains as fresh lockdown fears fade [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Oil Set for First Weekly Drop Since April on Second-Wave Fears [Reuters] U.S. [...]
Thursday, June 11, 2020
[CNBC] Stocks plunge at the open on virus second wave concern [Reuters] Stocks spooked, bonds rally on downbeat Fed [Reuters] Oil prices hit by record U.S. crude inventories, bearish Fed [AP] 1.5 million more [...]
Wednesday, June 10, 2020
[CNBC] Stocks rise ahead of Federal Reserve update, tech shares set for more gains [Reuters] Dollar hits three-month lows amid Fed easing speculation [Reuters] U.S. consumer prices fall for third straight month [CNBC] Mortgage demand [...]
Tuesday, June 9, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks fall as recovery rally pauses ahead of Fed meeting [Reuters] Europe turns red as bulls run out of charge [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Gold Advances Before Fed Meeting as Global Risk Rally Stalls [Reuters] Oil down [...]
Monday, June 8, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks rise on optimism over economic revival [Reuters] World shares advance on surprise U.S. job recovery, oil steadies [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Oil Erases Gains With Saudis Saying Extra Cuts for a Month Only [CNBC] Coronavirus live [...]
Sunday, June 7, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Powell Takes Center Stage at a Bleak Moment for the U.S.: Eco Week Ahead [Reuters] Black Lives Matter protests for U.S. racial justice reach new dimension [Reuters] China May exports slip back into contraction, [...]
Saturday, June 6, 2020
[Reuters] OPEC, Russia to extend record oil cuts to end of July [The Hill] Huge protest expected in DC amid escalating scrutiny of police tactics [Reuters] Wall Street Week Ahead: Bond investors look for Fed [...]
June 5, 2020: Bubble Meets Pandemic Consequences
For posterity, some numbers: Over the past three weeks (14 sessions), the S&P500 gained 11.5%. The KBW Bank Index surged 36.1%, with the NYSE Financials up 23.9%. The Dow Transports rose 27.2% in 14 sessions, [...]
Finding Value in a World of False Signals – June 5, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Finding Value in a World of False Signals The market continues its seemingly inexorable march higher. In [...]
Friday, June 5, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street higher on surprise drop in unemployment rate [CNBC] 10-year Treasury yield surges above 0.9% after better-than-expected jobs report [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Oil Rallies With Strong Jobs Data Adding to OPEC+ Cut Optimism [CNBC] May [...]
Thursday, June 4, 2020
[Reuters] S&P, Nasdaq lower after four-day rally [Reuters] Global Markets - ECB's super stimulus salvo sends stocks, euro higher [Reuters] U.S. new weekly jobless claims drop below 2 million [Yahoo/Bloomberg] ECB Unveils Bigger-Than-Expected Boost to [...]
Wednesday, June 3, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Prolong Rally; Dollar Weakens to March Low: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Global shares hit three-month highs on economic recovery hopes [Reuters] Euro set for seventh day of gains, dollar loses to riskier assets [CNBC] [...]
Tuesday, June 2, 2020
[Reuters] Wall St. higher on prospects of economic recovery [Reuters] Global shares cruise to three-month highs, dollar shows the strain [Reuters] Oil prices rise ahead of OPEC+ meeting on output cuts [Reuters] Five police shot [...]
Monday, June 1, 2020
[CNBC] Stocks are slightly lower to begin June as Wall Street aims for third straight monthly advance [Reuters] Global stocks buoyant, dollar slips as economies start to unlock [Reuters] Trump, attorney general to meet as [...]
Sunday, May 31, 2020
[AP] ‘We’re sick of it’: Anger over police killings shatters US [AP] Massive US protests raise fears of new virus outbreaks [CNN] Protesters break curfew on another night of fury and frustrations over George Floyd's [...]
Saturday, May 30, 2020
[CNBC] Protests and rioting erupt in cities across the U.S. as anger boils after the killing of George Floyd [AP] Trump strikes China over virus, Hong Kong and student visas [Reuters] Trump administration to study [...]
May 29, 2020: The Scourge of “Whatever it Takes” Monetary Mismanagement
A global pandemic and historic economic downturn. A rapidly escalating U.S./China cold war. Surging U.S. unemployment and economic depression. A deeply fragmented society with intensifying animosity and conflict. Heightened social instability, with mounting protests (and [...]
Watching an Opportunity Form in Commodities – May 29, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Watching an Opportunity Form in Commodities The overall performance of commodities has been very interesting to watch [...]
Friday, May 29, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks slip as investors await Trump's Hong Kong response [AP] US consumer spending sinks by record 13.6% in face of virus [Reuters] U.S. consumer spending tumbles in April [CNBC] Trump’s China press conference could [...]
Thursday, May 28, 2020
[MarketWatch] Stocks edge higher after Dow retakes 25,000 even as jobless toll tops 40 million [Reuters] Europe cheers super-sized stimulus plan, U.S.-China tensions simmer [Yahoo/Bloomberg] China Arrests Yuan Tumble With Stronger-Than-Expected Fixing [Reuters] Oil falls [...]
Wednesday, May 27, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street higher on recovery optimism [Yahoo/Bloomberg] China’s Sliding Yuan Leaves Offshore Rate on Brink of Record Low [Reuters] Dollar gains and yuan hits nine-month low as U.S.-China tensions return [MarketWatch] Treasury yields rise [...]
Tuesday, May 26, 2020
[Reuters] S&P 500 surges on recovery, vaccine hopes [Reuters] Europe's travel sector soars, S&P 500 to break 3000 barrier [Reuters] Oil prices climb as faith in supply cuts grows [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: Gottlieb sees [...]
Monday, May 25, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Europe Stocks Climb With U.S. Futures; Dollar Flat: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Stocks gain as German survey fuels optimism; dollar firm [Reuters] China lowers yuan midpoint to weakest since 2008 global financial crisis [Reuters] Dollar [...]
Sunday, May 24, 2020
[CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: Airlines, federal agencies add new procedures for summer air travel [Reuters] Hong Kong police fire tear gas as thousands protest security law [Reuters] China's new Hong Kong laws a 'flagrant breach' [...]
Implications of the Shutdown for Real Estate – May 22, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management:Implications of the Shutdown for Real EstateA walk down Main Street in Anytown, USA paints a very tragic picture. [...]
Saturday, May 23, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street Week Ahead: Investors look beyond drug makers as hunt for COVID-19 treatment heats up [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: Protests break out in Spain against lockdowns; US cases top 1.6 million [Reuters] Hertz [...]
May 22, 2020: Just the Facts
For the Week: The S&P500 rallied 3.2% (down 8.5% y-t-d), and the Dow rose 3.3% (down 14.3%). The Utilities gained 2.8% (down 12.2%). The Banks jumped 5.9% (down 40%), and the Broker/Dealers rose 5.0% (down [...]
Friday, May 22, 2020
[Reuters] Hong Kong tensions unnerve world stocks, oil tumbles [CNBC] Hong Kong plunges more than 5% as Beijing plans to impose new security laws [Reuters] Oil drops 5% on China-U.S. tensions, demand doubts [Reuters] New [...]
Thursday, May 21, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks retreat as trade tensions add to pandemic woes [Reuters] Shares lose footing, oil marches on [Reuters] Oil at highest since March on lower U.S. inventories, recovering demand [CNBC] Weekly jobless claims rose 2.438 [...]
Wednesday, May 20, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks jump as investors hold out for recovery [Reuters] Gold gains as bleak economic outlook stokes safe-haven demand [Reuters] Oil up on lower U.S. stocks, firmer demand [CNBC] Weekly mortgage applications point to a [...]
Tuesday, May 19, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Fluctuate; Crude Oil Edges Higher: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Euro, Italian bonds cheer EU recovery fund plan [Reuters] Powell, Mnuchin to face Senate grilling on U.S. coronavirus response [CNBC[ U.S. housing starts drop [...]
Monday, May 18, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street jumps on stimulus, vaccine hopes [Reuters] Oil and European shares rise as lockdowns ease; gold jumps [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Gold Climbs to 7-Year High After Fed’s Stocks, Growth Warnings [CNBC] Oil jumps 9% to [...]
Sunday, May 17, 2020
[AP] China warns US of ‘all necessary measures’ over Huawei rules [Reuters] A month after negative oil prices, U.S. crude contract expiry looms [Reuters] China says opposed to latest U.S. rules against Huawei [CNBC] Coronavirus [...]
Saturday, May 16, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street Week Ahead: Investors prepare for more U.S. stock swings as states reopen [Reuters] China asks United States to stop 'unreasonable suppression' of Huawei [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: Trump plans to restore a [...]
May 15, 2020: Global Bubbles are Deflating
“Bubble” is commonly understood to describe a divergence between overvalued market prices and underlying asset values. And while price anomalies are a typical consequence, they are generally not among the critical aspects of Bubbles. I’ll [...]
Just Because Culture Can’t Be Quantified Doesn’t Mean It Should Be Ignored – May 15, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Just Because Culture Can’t Be Quantified Doesn’t Mean It Should Be Ignored One of the great tragedies [...]
Friday, May 15, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Slide on Rising Trade Concern: Markets Wrap [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Investors Flee Risk on U.S.-China Row, Powell Warning [Reuters] Oil back at early April highs as demand shows signs of picking up [Reuters] Coronavirus [...]
Thursday, May 14, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks drop for third day as recovery hopes falter [Reuters] Oil prices rise on dip in U.S. crude stockpiles, IEA data [CNBC] US weekly jobless claims rise 2.981 million, vs 2.7 million expected [AP] [...]
Wednesday, May 13, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks turn negative as Fed's Powell warns of prolonged recession [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Oil Near Five-Week High as Saudi, Russia See Demand Recovering [CNBC] Powell says more policy help may be needed to pull the US [...]
Tuesday, May 12, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks rally falters as virus and trade nerves linger [Reuters] Dollar clings on to gains on fears of new COVID-19 cases, U.S.-Sino tensions [Reuters] Oil prices climb as Saudi Arabia pledges further production cut [...]
Monday, May 11, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks lower on fears of another wave of virus infections [Yahoo/Bloomberg] European Stocks Erase Earlier Gains as Oil Sinks Energy Shares [CNBC] China under pressure to write off loans as countries struggle to repay [...]
Sunday, May 10, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street Week Ahead: U.S. data deluge to underscore divide between [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: Trump administration set to have glut of ventilators in July [Reuters] China central bank to step up counter-cyclical [...]
Saturday, May 9, 2020
[CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: New jobs emerge from the pandemic; Amazon and sellers struggle to adapt [Reuters] No 'V'-shape return from devastating U.S. job loss, Fed policymakers say [Reuters] Explainer: Fed funds futures market sees [...]
May 8, 2020: Schumpeter’s Business Cycle Analysis
The work of the great economist Joseph Schumpeter (1883-1950) has always resonated. When I ponder analytical frameworks pertinent to these extraordinary times, none are more germane than Schumpeter’s Business Cycle Analysis. Best known for “creative [...]
Liquidity-Driven Growth and the Prospects for Gold – May 8, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management:Liquidity-Driven Growth and the Prospects for GoldIt is difficult to reconcile what is happening in the capital markets with [...]
Friday, May 8, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks boosted to weekly highs as risk appetite improves [Reuters] Oil heads for another weekly gain on demand hopes and shut-ins [CNBC] A record 20.5 million jobs were lost in April as unemployment rate [...]
Thursday, May 7, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street jumps as China data fuels recovery hopes [Reuters] Stocks cheer China trade relief, bonds face debt deluge [Reuters] Oil jumps on China export bounce, longer term outlook weak [Reuters] Brazil's real hits [...]
Wednesday, May 6, 2020
[CNBC] Stocks rise as investors bet on the economy reopening [Reuters] Euro falls amid worries about ECB bond-buying [CNBC] US private payrolls drop by 20.2 million in April, the worst job loss in the history [...]
Tuesday, May 5, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks climb on oil gains, easing of lockdowns [Reuters] Oil spurt lifts stocks out of three-day losing streak [Reuters] Euro drops after German court ruling fuels uncertainty [Reuters] Oil prices extend gains on demand [...]
Monday, May 4, 2020
[Reuters] Wall St returns to losses as Buffett dumps airlines, China tensions flare [Reuters] Global stocks fall as U.S.-China tensions threaten rebound [Reuters] Oil falls on renewed U.S.-China tensions, global glut [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: [...]
Sunday, May 3, 2020
[CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: Vietnam reports first case in nine days, Roche to double antibody test production [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Fears Mount About Inflation Returning With a Vengeance [AP] Many lockdowns ease but Russia, India, UK still [...]
Saturday, May 2, 2020
[CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: Protesters demand states reopen businesses and ease restrictions as US cases top 1.1 million [Reuters] Wall Street Week Ahead: Stocks face test as reopenings could fuel demand - or more coronavirus [...]
May 1, 2020: Going Nuclear
In a CBB from a decade or so ago, I noted that at the commencement of WWII President Roosevelt marshaled an agreement from the major warring parties to avoid the bombing of civilian targets. It [...]
Coronacosts or Just a Smokescreen? – May 1, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Coronacosts or Just a Smokescreen? The best part of waking up is …EBITDAC in your cup?[1] We [...]
Friday, May 1, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks fall further after Trump's China tariff threat [Reuters] Chinese yuan falls on U.S. tariff threat, Australian dollar sinks [Reuters] Oil rises towards $27 as OPEC+ begins record cut [Reuters] Trump threatens new tariffs [...]
Thursday, April 30, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street slides after jobless claims data [Reuters] Oil prices rise on some signs of pick up in fuel demand [CNBC] US weekly jobless claims hit 3.84 million, topping 30 million over the last [...]
Wednesday, April 29, 2020
[Reuters] Shares up as economies look to reopen [Reuters] Oil prices rise after smaller than feared U.S. inventories build [CNBC] US GDP shrank 4.8% in the first quarter amid biggest contraction since the financial crisis [...]
Tuesday, April 28, 2020
[CNBC] Stocks add to Monday’s gains with Dow futures up more than 300 points [CNBC] Oil drops 12% on storage capacity fears and weak demand, futures were down as much as 20% [CNBC] Coronavirus live [...]
Monday, April 27, 2020
[Reuters] Shares jump as investors cheer lockdown easing, more stimulus [Reuters] Oil prices skid on oversupply, storage concerns [Reuters] U.S. dollar falls as lockdowns ease and traders turn less averse to risk [Reuters] Italian government [...]
Sunday, April 26, 2020
[Reuters] U.S. response to virus splinters into acrimony and uncertainty [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: China says all Wuhan patients have been discharged, Russia cases top 80,000 [Yahoo/Bloomberg] World’s Biggest Central Banks Meet as Pressure Mounts [...]
Saturday, April 25, 2020
[Reuters] U.S. deficit could quadruple to $3.7 trillion in coronavirus crisis: CBO [CNBC] Trump pulls punches and clings to his China trade deal as backlash against Beijing grows [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: WHO warns [...]
April 24, 2020: Fault Lines
Now on a weekly basis, we’re witnessing things that couldn’t happen – actually happen. April 20 – Bloomberg (Catherine Ngai, Olivia Raimonde, and Alex Longley): “Of all the wild, unprecedented swings in financial markets since [...]
How the heck did we get negative oil prices this week and what does it mean for other commodities? – April 24, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: How the heck did we get negative oil prices this week and what does it mean for [...]
Tactical Short Strategy – April 23, 2020
Tactical Short Strategy Conference Call - April 23, 2020 TRANSCRIPT David: It is April 23rd and we are excited to be with you this afternoon. This is David McAlvany and Doug Noland [...]
Friday, April 24, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street higher on signs of lockdown easing [Reuters] Global stocks fall on worries over EU stimulus details, coronavirus drug [Reuters] Oil heads for steep weekly slide after coronavirus turmoil [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: [...]
Thursday, April 23, 2020
[Reuters] Markets brush off ugly data, pin hopes on stimulus [CNBC] Oil jumps 21%, extending Wednesday’s rally as traders bet on US production cuts [CNBC] US weekly jobless claims hit 4.4 million, bringing 5-week total [...]
Wednesday, April 22, 2020
[Reuters] Oil pinballs off 1999 lows, stocks clamber higher [Reuters] Oil jumps 12%, reversing steep losses after volatile overnight session [Reuters] Italian bond yields rise on coronavirus funding uncertainty [Reuters] Dollar holds gains as oil [...]
Tuesday, April 21, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks slide as sub-zero U.S. crude adds to pandemic jitters [CNBC] Oil continues unprecedented sell-off: June futures drop 20%, May contract still has a negative price [Reuters] Dollar resumes ascent as oil and North [...]
Monday, April 20, 2020
[Reuters] U.S. crude gets crushed, share markets turn cautious [CNBC] Oil futures contract expiring Tuesday dives 38% as pandemic ravages demand, June contract falls 11% [CNBC] US oil prices on pace for their worst day [...]
Sunday, April 19, 2020
[Reuters] Pelosi says 'very close' to coronavirus funding deal [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: Pelosi says lawmakers are ‘very close’ to new rescue funding deal as US cases top 735,000 [MSN/Washington Post] Record government and corporate [...]
Saturday, April 18, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street Week Ahead: In companies' earnings, words may matter more than numbers [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: Stocks rally on hopes for a breakthrough, nations debate easing lockdown [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Nothing Is Certain But Bailouts: [...]
April 17, 2020: Crazy, Dangerous Things
Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this coming Thursday, April 23rd, at 4:00PM Eastern/ 2:00pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q1 recap conference call, “Managing Short Exposure in an Unprecedented Environment” Click here [...]
An Earnings Season Like No Other – April 17, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: An Earnings Season Like No Other It is that time again. We are just entering corporate earnings [...]
Friday, April 17, 2020
[Reuters] Super-charged global stocks race towards second weekly gain [Reuters] Oil rises as Trump plans to ease lockdown [Reuters] Trump to release guidelines for phased-in re-opening of U.S. economy [Reuters] China's first-quarter GDP posts first [...]
Thursday, April 16, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks head for higher ground, oil stuck in a rut [CNBC] Jobless claims total 5.245 million as 22 million positions have been lost in a month due to coronavirus [CNBC] US housing starts plunge [...]
Wednesday, April 15, 2020
[CNBC] Dow falls 600 points as coronavirus shutdown slams economy, bank earnings [Reuters] Global shares dip as dire warnings for global economy weigh [Reuters] Oil falls 4% on oversupply concerns [CNBC] Coronavirus delivers record blow [...]
Tuesday, April 14, 2020
[Reuters] Global stocks gain on China trade data, easing pandemic worries [Reuters] Oil slips as producer cuts fail to banish demand fears [Reuters] U.S. deficit to soar to record $3.8 trillion in 2020, budget watchdog [...]
Monday, April 13, 2020
[AP] Shares fall, oil loses earlier gains following OPEC deal [Reuters] Oil prices broadly shrug off output cut as demand worries weigh [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: China’s new cases rise above 100, Singapore reports 233 [...]
Sunday, April 12, 2020
[Reuters] OPEC, allies to confer on Sunday to try to end standoff over cuts plan: sources [Reuters] British PM Johnson discharged from hospital after coronavirus treatment [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: Fauci expresses ‘cautious optimism’ US [...]
Saturday, April 11, 2020
[Reuters] UK PM making very good progress in COVID-19 recovery, office says [Reuters] Congressional Republicans demand quick action on new coronavirus business relief [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: Italy to set up ‘immunity passports,’ outbreak swamps [...]
April 10, 2020: When Money Died
Sitting at the dinner table, our eleven-year old son inquired: “If a big meteor was about to hit the earth, how much money would the Fed print?” I complimented his sense of humor. Yet it [...]
Friday, April 10, 2020
[AP] Asian shares steady after Wall St caps best week since 1974 [Reuters] Dollar heads for weekly loss on Fed move, easing virus fears [Reuters] U.S. consumer prices decline in March [Reuters] UK PM Johnson [...]
The FOMO Market – April 9, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: The FOMO Market Some of you are reading the title of this week’s Hard Assets Insights and [...]
Thursday, April 9, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks higher after Fed stimulus, jobless claims data [Reuters] Global stocks gain on hopes pandemic is nearing peak [Reuters] Oil prices rise on hopes OPEC+ will agree supply cuts [CNBC] Federal Reserve unveils details [...]
Wednesday, April 8, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks edge higher as Trump suggests U.S. outbreak nearing peak [AP] Global shares mostly lower amid worries on pandemic toll [Reuters] Dollar creeps higher as virus worries return [Reuters] Oil prices jump on hopes [...]
Tuesday, April 7, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks surge on early signs of coronavirus slowdown in hot spots [Reuters] Coronavirus hopes propel stocks, euro higher [Reuters] Oil gains as hopes rise for production cut amid coronavirus outbreak [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: [...]
Monday, April 6, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks jump on virus hopes, oil hit by OPEC+ delay [MarketWatch] Gold rises, aims for highest close in nearly a month [Reuters] Oil edges down after Saudi Arabia, Russia delay meeting [Reuters] Trump open [...]
Sunday, April 5, 2020
[CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: New York braces for worst week yet as cases continue to rise [AP] U.S. ‘wasted’ months before preparing for virus pandemic [AP] 'Complete collapse of economies' ahead as Africa faces virus [...]
The Oil Industry’s Version of Coronavirus – April 3, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: The Oil Industry’s Version of Coronavirus While the above photo may seem like a bit of an [...]
Saturday, April 4, 2020
[Reuters] OPEC+ emergency meeting likely to be postponed to April 8 or 9: OPEC sources [Reuters] Trump aims to ease U.S. oil industry's cash crunch, no plan to trim output: sources [AP] Saudi Arabia [...]
April 3, 2020: The King of Sovereign Subprime
The past week witnessed 6.6 million new U.S. unemployment claims, pushing the two-week surge to a sickening almost 10 million. The U.S. economy is sliding into the steepest of downturns, with awful consequences for society, [...]
Friday, April 3, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks fall as business signals hit from pandemic, oil grinds higher [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Oil Surges as Producers Eye 10 Million Barrel a Day Output Cut [CNBC] US payrolls drop 701,000 in March, the first jobs [...]
Thursday, April 2, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks drift as wary investors expect grim U.S. jobs data [Reuters] Dollar maintains gains after weeks of rallying [CNBC] Oil rallies 10% after Trump says he expects Saudi Arabia-Russia feud to end soon [MarketWatch] [...]
Wednesday, April 1, 2020
[CNBC] Dow falls more than 800 points after market posts worst first quarter on record [AP] Global stock markets skid as coronavirus infections soar [Reuters] Oil prices mixed, U.S. inventory build-up heightens oversupply concerns [CNBC] [...]
Tuesday, March 31, 2020
[CNBC] Stocks fall more than 1% as the Dow heads for its worst first quarter ever [Reuters] Stocks end worst quarter since 2008 with small recovery [Reuters] Dollar surges on quarter-end flows; outlook robust [Reuters] [...]
Monday, March 30, 2020
[CNBC] Stocks continue their rebound from last week as coronavirus measures extended [Reuters] Oil plunges to 2002 lows, shares sink again [Reuters] U.S. crude dips below $20 as lockdowns wipe out demand [Reuters] Dollar, yen [...]
Sunday, March 29, 2020
[CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: States ramp up testing, Gov. Phil Murphy responds to CDC’s tri-state area travel advisory [Reuters] Worry, problems and strife: Investors fear markets not out of woods despite big rally [Reuters] Pence [...]
Crisis Is a Test; Some Companies Will Do Well On It – March 28, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Crisis Is a Test; Some Companies Will Do Well On It Today we’ll take a brief break [...]
Saturday, March 28, 2020
[CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: Some find lenders’ ‘relief’ misleading, farmers and police hit by virus [CNBC] Trump pushes back against congressional oversight for $500 billion bailout fund [Reuters] As virus threatens, U.S. embraces big government, [...]
March 27, 2020: The Solvency Problem
Being an analyst of Credit and Bubbles over the past few decades has come with its share of challenges. Greater challenges await. I expect to dedicate the rest of my life to defending Capitalism. One [...]
Friday, March 27, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks fall after three-day surge as virus fears grow [Reuters] European shares fall as investors take stock of spreading virus [Reuters] Oil mixed on stimulus hopes and demands fears [Reuters] British PM Boris Johnson [...]
Thursday, March 26, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks slip as U.S. jobs angst outweighs $2 trillion stimulus [CNBC] Japan shares drop more than 4% as investors await jobless claims data stateside [Reuters] Oil prices mixed as demand shrinks, but stimulus hopes [...]
Wednesday, March 25, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks rebound passes 10% after $2 trillion U.S. stimulus boost [Reuters] U.S. Congress, negotiators reach deal on $2-trillion coronavirus aid package [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: Prince Charles tests positive, Target withdraws forecast [Reuters] Coronavirus [...]
Tuesday, March 24, 2020
[Reuters] S&P hits upper trading limit after another brutal session [MarketWatch] Gold prices extend rally, surge by most in 11 years amid tight supplies and regime of limitless stimulus [CNBC] Oil prices rise as US [...]
Monday, March 23, 2020
[CNBC] Stock futures surge into the green after being ‘limit down’ overnight as Fed announces limitless asset purchases [Reuters] Stocks crumble as more nations shut for business to curb virus [Reuters] Oil reverses losses, [...]
Sunday, March 22, 2020
[Reuters] Virus aid bill includes $3,000 for families, $4 trillion liquidity for Fed: Mnuchin [CNBC] Congress is working on a massive coronavirus relief package — it might not be enough for businesses [CNBC] Fed’s Bullard: [...]
Saturday, March 21, 2020
[Reuters] U.S. seeks comments on tariff cuts for Chinese imports to aid coronavirus battle [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: US hospitals seek $100 billion in aid, Spain death toll tops 1,300 [AP] Congress toils on $1 [...]
March 20, 2020: Please Don’t Completely Destroy…
I’ve been dreading this. In the midst of all the policy responses to the collapse of the mortgage finance Bubble, I recall writing something to the effect: “I understand we can’t allow the system to [...]
“Is It Time to Buy?” – March 20, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: “Is It Time to Buy?” Photo: Hedgeye.com We’d like to preface this piece by saying that we [...]
Friday, March 20, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street gains at the end of blistering week [Reuters] Markets gain as central banks, governments pour in cash [Reuters] Euro zone bond yields tumble as risk sentiment picks up [AP] Trump’s team, senators [...]
Thursday, March 19, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks fall again as recession fears rage on [Reuters] Dollar rules; ECB stimulus boosts bonds [Reuters] Credit markets flash red as coronavirus hits corporate America [Reuters] Oil jumps after three-day slump but virus and [...]
Wednesday, March 18, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks, oil sliding again in 'irrevocably changed' markets [Reuters] Italian bond yields jump, central bank intervention brings some calm [Reuters] U.S. crude hits 17-year low as lockdowns, restrictions spread [Reuters] Dollar rockets to three-year [...]
Tuesday, March 17, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks higher after Wall Street's steepest plunge since 1987 [Reuters] German Bund yields reach one-month high, French, Spanish sell-off continues [Reuters] Asian stocks fall in volatile session after historic Wall St. plunge [Reuters] Oil [...]
Monday, March 16, 2020
[CNBC] S&P 500 drops 8%, triggers ‘circuit breaker’ trading halt even after the Fed cuts rates [Reuters] Stocks pounded as Fed's aggressive rate cut fans recession fears [Reuters] Brent falls 10%, WTI below $30 as [...]
Sunday, March 15, 2020
[Reuters] The plumbing behind world's financial markets is creaking. Loudly [Reuters] Haven assets losing their mojo in virus-stricken market [Reuters] Wall St Week Ahead-Investors hope Fed can help calm markets as big rate cut expected [...]
Analyzing the Apocalypse – March 14, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Analyzing the Apocalypse This has been a week for the ages. Or the aging. A decade or [...]
Saturday, March 14, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street weekahead: Investors hope Fed can help calm markets as big rate cut expected [Reuters] World closes borders, restricts travel to contain coronavirus spread [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: Hospitals cancel elective surgeries, small [...]
March 13, 2020: Loss of Moneyness
It was as if global markets pulled elements from the 1994 bond market dislocation, 1997’s Asian Bubble collapses, the 1998 Russian/LTCM fiasco, and the 2008 market crash – and synthesized them for a week of [...]
Friday, March 13, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks bounce back after pandemic-driven carnage [Reuters] World stocks rise on spending hopes, still [Reuters] Nikkei plunges as much as 10% as market panic deepens; REITs pounded [Reuters] Oil prices set for biggest weekly [...]
Thursday, March 12, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks plummet after Trump bans travel from Europe to contain coronavirus blow [Reuters] Oil falls 7% as Trump surprises with travel ban [Reuters] Corporate credit risk heightens as coronavirus impact spreads [Reuters] Bitcoin plummets [...]
Wednesday, March 11, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks wilt on growing doubts about U.S. virus response [Reuters] Dollar resumes descent against safe-haven currencies in volatile trade [Reuters] Oil falls $1 as price war escalates with Saudi plan for higher output capacity [...]
Tuesday, March 10, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks rebound as stimulus hopes calm recession worries [Reuters] Stock markets and oil markets bounce after brutal flooring [Reuters] Oil jumps 10% after rout on stimulus hopes, Russian signal on OPEC talks [CNBC] Coronavirus [...]
Monday, March 9, 2020
[CNBC] Dow craters 2,000 points and S&P 500 down more than 7% after trading resumes [CNBC] 10-year Treasury yield hits new all-time low of 0.318% amid historic flight to bonds [Reuters] Oil prices plunge by [...]
Sunday, March 8, 2020
[Reuters] Mideast Stocks - Equity markets plunge after OPEC deal collapses [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: Washington state weighs mandatory measures to contain outbreak [Reuters] Alarmed Italy locks down north to prevent spread of coronavirus [Reuters] [...]
Saturday, March 7, 2020
[AP] Plunging yields force investors and Fed to rethink strategy [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: Pope cancels major public appearances as cases surge in Europe [Reuters] China January-February exports tumble, imports slow as coronavirus batters trade [...]
March 6, 2020: The Modern-Day Bank Run
Pondering the shallowness of analyses being espoused by the vast majority of market pundits, I’m compelled to frame a thesis to help explain today’s most extraordinary backdrop. The coronavirus outbreak will eventually pass, though I [...]
Tempest in a Teapot or Hurricane in a Hemisphere? – March 6, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Tempest in a Teapot or Hurricane in a Hemisphere? Dow Jones Industrial Average for the week: Monday: [...]
Friday, March 6, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks tank as virus fears spur flight to safety [Reuters] World stocks succumb to virus fears, Treasury yields hit record lows [CNBC] 10-year Treasury yield hits all-time low under 0.7% as flight to bonds [...]
Thursday, March 5, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks plunge on virus fears as California declares emergency [Reuters] Oil rises as OPEC backs deeper supply cuts [AP] US productivity increases at 1.2% rate in fourth quarter [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: South Africa [...]
Wednesday, March 4, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks surge after Biden's resurgence in Democratic primaries [Reuters] Oil rises $1 as OPEC, allies work on big output cut [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: Italy weighs school closures, Chinese scientists find two strains of [...]
Tuesday, March 3, 2020
[Reuters] Global shares extend rebound on hopes of G7 support [Reuters] Oil extends gains on expectations for coordinated effort to offset coronavirus impact [Reuters] Yen, franc rise as coronavirus uncertainty outweigh stimulus hopes [CNBC] G-7 [...]
Monday, March 2, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks cling to stimulus hopes, Treasuries slide towards 1% [Reuters] Oil up as hopes of OPEC cut, stimulus counter virus gloom [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: First case confirmed in New York City, Europe raises [...]
Sunday, March 1, 2020
[K5News] Over 50 people at Kirkland nursing facility undergoing testing for coronavirus [Reuters] South Korea closes churches as coronavirus tally passes 3,500 [Reuters] Coronavirus weighs on South Korea February trade; ministry says worse to come [...]
Saturday, February 29, 2020
[Reuters] China data portends more punishment for bruised stock markets [Reuters] China February factory activity contracts at record pace as coronavirus bites [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: France bans large gatherings, cancels Paris half-marathon as outbreak [...]
February 28, 2020: Hair of the Dog
“U.S. Stocks Tumble 11% in Worst Week Since Crisis,” read the Friday evening Bloomberg headline. A Wall Street Journal caption asked the apt question: “U.S. Stocks Were at Records Last Week. What Happened?” A Friday [...]
Evaluating the Storm – February 28, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Evaluating the Storm Corona: The new “value” beer? Or value trap? It is virtually impossible to discuss [...]
Friday, February 28, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks plunge on coronavirus fears even as U.S. ramps up fight against spread [CNBC] 10-year Treasury yield collapses to another record low of 1.16%, 2-year rate tumbles below 1% [Reuters] Yen soars as investors [...]
Thursday, February 27, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks slump on alarm over fast-spreading virus [Reuters] U.S. Treasury yields continue fall; yield on 10-year notes hits new record low [Reuters] Asian stocks slide deeper as pandemic fears grow [Reuters] Oil falls for [...]
Wednesday, February 26, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks look for direction after four-day selloff [Reuters] Asian shares slump, bonds rally as virus fears grow [Reuters] Oil rises on short-covering despite growing fears over coronavirus [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: Trump to hold [...]
Tuesday, February 25, 2020
[Reuters] Positive earnings boost stocks after Monday's selloff [Reuters] Global stocks sink further as virus fears weigh [Reuters] Oil falls for third day as virus concern outweigh supply cuts [CNBC] Home prices increase 3.8% in [...]
Monday, February 24, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks plummet as investors dump stocks on fears of pandemic [Reuters] European shares suffer worst day since 2016 as virus spreads [Reuters] Italian bond yields jump, German curve negative as coronavirus hits Italy [Reuters] [...]
Sunday, February 23, 2020
[Reuters] Concern over coronavirus spread grows with cases jumping in South Korea, Italy and Iran [Reuters] China braces for inevitable big hit to economy from virus, says Xi [Reuters[ G20 finance heads wrap up meeting [...]
Saturday, February 22, 2020
[CNBC] New coronavirus cases in Iran, Italy fuel concerns the disease cannot be contained [Reuters] New coronavirus cases fall in China but fears grow over global spread [Reuters] South Korea says coronavirus cases more [...]
February 21, 2020: Pandemic Risk Rising
Coronavirus cases in China surpassed 76,000. Deaths have reached 2,345. The number of new cases has slowed markedly, perhaps owing to repeated changes in the methodology of counting infections. Developments elsewhere are less encouraging. Plans [...]
Much Ado About … Much – February 21, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Much Ado About … Much We take time away from this very heavy week of earnings to [...]
Friday, February 21, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street falls again as coronavirus spreads beyond China [MarketWatch] 30-year Treasury bond yield breaks to all-time low as coronavirus fears lift havens [Reuters] Oil retreats in face of renewed coronavirus uncertainties [Reuters] Flight [...]
Thursday, February 20, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks dip as coronavirus cases outside China rise [Reuters] Dollar tramples yen and everything else in its path [Reuters] Yen's safe-haven status under siege as Japan's economy sputters [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: US hospitals [...]
Wednesday, February 19, 2020
[Reuters] China stimulus hints, slowing spread of virus lift stocks [Reuters] Oil up on slowing pace of coronavirus, Venezuela sanctions [Reuters] U.S. housing starts fall; building permits near 13-year high [Reuters] U.S. producer prices post [...]
Tuesday, February 18, 2020
[Reuters] Apple hits stocks, euro near three-year low [CNBC] Apple shares slide after coronavirus guidance warning as its global suppliers are hammered [Reuters] Oil prices fall as market weighs coronavirus demand impact [Reuters] China regulator [...]
Monday, February 17, 2020
[Reuters] World shares inch up on Chinese support measures [CNBC] Chinese stocks up more than 2%, rest of Asia mixed as investors assess coronavirus impact [Reuters] Oil prices steady as coronavirus-related demand concerns weigh [Reuters] [...]
Sunday, February 16, 2020
[Reuters] Americans to fly home from coronavirus-hit cruise; China says new cases slow [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: Taiwan confirms first death, US ship passenger infected with virus [Reuters] China finance minister says expects fiscal revenues [...]
Saturday, February 15, 2020
[Reuters] Trump administration eyes 10% middle-class tax cut proposal [Reuters] Xi says China must keep economic, social order while battling coronavirus [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: State Department will evacuate Americans from cruise ship, first death [...]
February 14, 2020: One Extraordinary Year
Confirmed coronavirus cases almost doubled over the past week to 67,000. Part of the spike was the result of including a group diagnosed through CT imaging scans rather than with typical coronavirus testing. The ballooning [...]
Happy Valentine’s Day! – February 14, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Happy Valentine’s Day! Happy Valentine’s Day from us here at MWM. Although agriculture broadly is within the [...]
Friday, February 14, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks climb to record on hopes of limited coronavirus economic hit [Reuters] Oil prices rise more than 1%, on course for weekly gain [CNBC] Consumer spending rose modestly in January as clothing store sales [...]
Thursday, February 12, 2020
[Reuters] Jump in coronavirus cases yanks rally into reverse [Reuters] Oil prices fall on bearish demand forecasts [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: China’s Hubei reports 14,840 new cases, 242 additional deaths [Reuters] Coronavirus deaths, cases leap [...]
Wednesday, February 12, 2020
[Reuters] Investors charge back into stocks on signs coronavirus spread is slowing [Reuters] Oil jumps as slowdown in new China coronavirus cases eases fuel demand concerns [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: China reports 97 additional deaths, [...]
Tuesday, February 11, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks reach record highs on hopes virus is peaking [Reuters] Oil rises from 13-month low as new virus cases slow [AP] Powell: Economy looks resilient despite risk of China virus [Reuters] Fed Chair Powell [...]
Monday, February 10, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street subdued as investors weigh coronavirus risks [Reuters] Coronavirus uncertainty subdues global shares, dollar eases after rally [Reuters] Oil slips on weaker Chinese demand, traders await OPEC+ cuts [Reuters] Metals - Zinc sinks [...]
Sunday, February 9, 2020
[CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: China pledges $10 billion to fight outbreak, UK confirms fourth case [Reuters] Deaths from China's coronavirus outbreak surpass deaths from SARS [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Powell Testimony in Focus Amid Growing Virus Impact: Eco [...]
Saturday, February 8, 2020
[Reuters] American dies of coronavirus in China; Britons infected at French ski resort [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: US citizen dies in Wuhan, Italy warns of significant economic impact [Reuters] China blocks Foxconn plan to restart [...]
February 7, 2020: Dr. Li Wenliang
The S&P500 rallied 3.2% this week (trading to all-time highs Thursday), more than reversing (by 1.5 times) the previous week’s 2.1% decline. Ten-year Treasury yields rebounded as well, yet the eight bps rise was less [...]
From Politics and Pandemics to Postings and Predictions … and More Politics – February 7, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: From Politics and Pandemics to Postings and Predictions … and More Politics This week, the market began [...]
Friday, February 7, 2020
[Reuters] Rally in stocks runs out of steam as coronavirus toll climbs [Reuters] Oil rises after Russia supports possible supply cuts as coronavirus spreads [Reuters] China's central bank says coronavirus outbreak could disrupt economy in [...]
Thursday, February 6, 2020
[Reuters] China tariff cut buoys stocks as investors look beyond virus [Reuters] Oil rises for a second day as OPEC+ weighs coronavirus action [CNBC] China to halve tariffs on hundreds of US goods worth about [...]
Wednesday, February 5, 2020
[Reuters] Stimulus hope, virus containment steps fuel renewed equity surge [Reuters] Oil jumps 3% on reports of effective coronavirus drug [CNBC] Private payrolls soar in January, the best monthly gain in nearly 5 years [Reuters] [...]
Tuesday, February 4, 2020
[Reuters] Global stocks, commodities firmer as virus fever abates [Reuters] Chinese markets, yuan claw back some lost ground after virus-led wipeout [Reuters] Oil prices rebound from China virus slump amid ginger recovery across markets [Reuters] [...]
Tactical Short Strategy – January 23, 2020
Tactical Short Strategy Conference Call - January 23, 2020 CLICK HERE FOR THE TRANSCRIPT Disclaimer: Advisory services are offered by McAlvany Wealth Management, an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and [...]
Monday, February 3, 2020
[Reuters] Global stocks hover near seven-week lows as virus fears hit China markets after holiday [Reuters] Virus fears wipe $393 billion off China's stock market despite government support moves [Reuters] China's yuan weakens but resilient [...]
Sunday, February 2, 2020
[Reuters] China to inject $174 billion of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: White House studying economic impact, France evacuates citizens [AFP] China shuts down city of Wenzhou, far from virus [...]
Saturday, February 1, 2020
[Reuters] Earnings volatility set to kick in as coronavirus worries mount [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: Death toll passes 250, China cancels tariffs on US virus prevention products [CNBC] US companies suspend China operations, restrict travel [...]
January 31, 2020: The First Major Pandemic Scare
January 31 – Bloomberg: “Chinese officials took issue with U.S. comments about the country’s response to the coronavirus outbreak, and promised they would bring the infection under control. ‘U.S. comments are inconsistent with the facts [...]
Plus ça Change, Plus C’est la Même Chose – January 31, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Plus ça Change, Plus C’est la Même Chose Flexing our French muscles today, the title means “the [...]
Friday, January 31, 2020
[Reuters] Shares struggle for footing after virus-battered week [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: US raises travel warning, Singapore bans Chinese travelers as outbreak spreads [Reuters] U.S. and others tighten curbs on travel to China, virus toll [...]
Thursday, January 30, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks down, safe havens up on China virus worries [Reuters] Oil falls 2% on spread of China virus [Reuters] Copper slides to five-month low on China demand angst [CNBC] US fourth-quarter GDP rose 2.1% [...]
Wednesday, January 29, 2020
[Reuters] Wall St. gains as Apple, Boeing take focus off coronavirus [Reuters] Buoyed by company earnings, world markets look past virus [Reuters] Gold gains as virus concerns linger, investors await Fed [Reuters] Oil gains amid [...]
Tuesday, January 28, 2020
[Reuters] Selling abates after virus causes worst day since October [Reuters] China says death toll from coronavirus rises to 106, confirmed cases hits 4,515 [CNBC] Home price gains continued to heat up in November [Reuters] [...]
Monday, January 27, 2020
[Reuters] China virus fears push stocks to two-week low, safe havens gain [Reuters] Gold gains 1% as virus fears fan growth worries [Reuters] Oil extends declines as fears grow over China virus [Reuters] Chinese premier [...]
Sunday, January 26, 2020
[Reuters] China scrambles to contain 'strengthening' virus [CNBC] Third US case of coronavirus confirmed in California, health officials say [Reuters] Latest on the coronavirus spreading in China and beyond [Reuters] Canada identifies first case of [...]
Saturday, January 25, 2020
[Reuters] Xi says China faces 'grave situation' as virus toll hits 41 [Reuters] U.S. to evacuate its citizens from Wuhan, China - WSJ [Reuters] The latest on the coronavirus spreading in China and beyond [BBC] [...]
January 24, 2020: Coronavirus and the End of Boom and Bust
The market week began with cases of the coronavirus jumping to 222, including four outside China. China’s National Health Commission confirmed human-to-human virus transmission. By Friday, more than 1,200 infections had been confirmed, with 41 [...]
What Is the Commodities Complex Telling Us About the Global Economy? – January 24, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: What Is the Commodities Complex Telling Us About the Global Economy? What a volatile week this has [...]
Friday, January 24, 2020
[Reuters] Nasdaq hits record high on Intel strength [Reuters] Shares hold ground as China virus fears persist; euro hits seven-week low after ECB [Reuters] Copper set for biggest weekly drop in 17 months amid China [...]
Tactical Short Strategy Q4 January 23, 2020 Transcript
David: The online question and answer will be difficult for us to maintain, so I have about 20 different questions that were submitted by all of you ahead of time. Thank you for that. [...]
Thursday, January 23, 2020
[Reuters] Virus fears sap stocks; ECB gets ready for rethink [CNBC] Mainland Chinese stocks drop as much as 3.5% as coronavirus fears grip investors [Reuters] Oil slump deepens as China virus casts cloud over fuel [...]
Wednesday, January 22, 2020
[Reuters] S&P 500 aims for record on IBM support, fading China virus fears [Reuters] Oil falls as surplus forecast overshadows Libya disruption [Reuters] Yuan, Australian dollar struggle to wipe off coronavirus concerns [Reuters] China virus [...]
Tuesday, January 21, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks lower as China virus outbreak, growth fears sour mood [Reuters] China virus sends chill through markets as risks rise [Reuters] Yuan slips, yen gains as spread of China virus unnerves markets [CNBC] Hong [...]
Monday, January 20, 2020
[Reuters] Global stocks stay near record highs; focus turns to central banks, earnings [Reuters] Gold gains on heightened safe-haven interest; palladium soars [Reuters] Oil jumps to highest in more than a week after Libyan shutdowns [...]
Sunday, January 19, 2020
[Reuters] China will increase imports from U.S. according to 'market principles': official [Reuters] China to step up countermeasures as virus outbreak grows [Reuters] Libya peace summit struggles to draw eastern commander Haftar back into diplomacy [...]
Saturday, January 18, 2020
[MarketWatch] Stock market is “eerily reminiscent of January 2018” when stocks suffered rapid correction, technical analyst says [Reuters] Erdogan calls on Europe to support Turkey's moves in Libya: Politico [Bloomberg] Fed Plans Shift From Writing [...]
January 17, 2020: “This is Insane”
Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this coming Thursday, January 23rd, at 4:00PM Eastern/ 2:00pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q4 recap conference call, “Surviving an Equities Melt Up” Click here to register. [...]
Bad “Market” Behavior Makes for Bad Investor Behavior – January 17, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Bad “Market” Behavior Makes for Bad Investor Behavior We typically do not use the “Hard Assets Insights” [...]
Friday, January 17, 2020
[Reuters] China data boosts Wall Street to new record highs [Reuters] World shares gain as China data fuels bets on growth [Reuters] Dollar hits eight-month high on yen, yuan buoyed by China GDP [Reuters] U.S. [...]
Thursday, January 16, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks near record on trade deal, robust earnings [CNBC] US retail sales climb in December, and November sales were revised up [Reuters] U.S. weekly jobless claims drop more than expected [Reuters] Doubts linger after [...]
Wednesday, January 15, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks mostly lower as investors assess U.S.-China trade deal, earnings [Reuters] Oil slips on doubts about U.S.-China deal, OPEC outlook [Reuters] U.S. producer prices barely rise as services remain subdued [CNBC] Weekly mortgage applications [...]
Tuesday, January 14, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks pause after rally, JPMorgan results draw cheer [Reuters] Yuan soars, stocks scale heights as markets cheer imminent Sino-U.S. deal signing [Reuters] Oil prices rise ahead of trade deal, likely stock draw [Reuters] U.S. [...]
Monday, January 13, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks pinned near record highs ahead of U.S.-China trade deal [Reuters] China's yuan rallies, yen slides ahead of U.S. trade deal [Reuters] Oil steady on easing U.S.-Iran tensions, eyes on China trade deal [CNBC] [...]
Sunday, January 12, 2020
[Reuters] Gulf markets gain after no escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions [Reuters] China says will not change position on Taiwan after landslide election [Reuters] Bank of England's Woods warns financial sector of crackdown: Telegraph [Reuters] Protesters [...]
Saturday, January 11, 2020
[Reuters] U.S., China agree to have semi-annual talks aimed a reforms, resolving disputes: WSJ [Reuters] Iran says its military shot down Ukrainian plane in 'disastrous mistake' [Reuters] Taiwan President Tsai set to win re-election [Reuters] [...]
January 10, 2020: Issues 2020
When I began posting the CBB in 1999, I expected “Bubble” to be in the title for no longer than a year or two. It was to be the “Credit Bulletin,” inspired by Benjamin Anderson’s [...]
Gold and Oil Are Still the Big Story – January 10, 2020
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Gold and Oil Are Still the Big Story It has been an eventful few weeks since we [...]
Friday, January 10, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks march higher as Middle East tensions ease [CNBC] US added 145,000 jobs in December, vs 160,000 expected [AP] Boeing papers show employees slid 737 Max problems past FAA [Reuters] Explainer: What is at [...]
Thursday, January 9, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks back in record territory as Middle East tensions fade [Reuters] Oil steadies around levels prevailing before U.S.-Iran attacks [Reuters] China's Vice Premier Liu to sign U.S. trade deal in Washington next week [Reuters] [...]
Wednesday, January 8, 2020
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] U.S. Stocks Lead Rebound as Iran Jolt Fades: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Gold below $1,600 as markets await U.S. reaction to Iran attacks [Reuters] Oil gains trimmed as tensions on Iran strike recede - for [...]
Tuesday, January 7, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks flat, oil cools as anxiety over Mideast recedes [CNBC] US trade deficit falls more than expected to hit lowest level in three years [CNBC] How the world’s most important oil chokepoint could factor [...]
Monday, January 6, 2020
[Reuters] Stocks wipe out new year gains; gold, oil soar on U.S.-Iran threat [Reuters] Mideast tensions send yen to three-month peak [Reuters] Trump stands by threat on Iranian cultural sites, warns of 'major retaliation' [Reuters] [...]
Sunday, January 5, 2020
[Reuters] Gulf markets plunge on U.S.-Iran tensions, Aramco at lowest since IPO [Reuters] Bernanke: Fed has ample clout to fight downturn if toolkit used properly [Reuters] China's central bank says will keep monetary policy [...]
Saturday, January 4, 2020
[Reuters] Fed may need new approach to boost inflation, Daly says [AP] New vehicle sales in US fell 1.3% in 2019 but still healthy [Reuters] Tens of thousands march in Baghdad to mourn Soleimani, others [...]
January 3, 2020: 2019 in Review
It cannot be overstated: Bubbles are of paramount importance – for markets, finance more generally, economies, and social and geopolitical stability. Two U.S. bursting episodes over the past twenty years would seem to make this [...]
Friday, January 3, 2020
[Reuters] Wall Street falls after U.S. kills top Iranian commander [Reuters] Oil, safe havens surge as U.S. strikes kill Iranian commander [Reuters] Brent jumps nearly $3 after U.S. air strike kills Iran, Iraq officials [Reuters] [...]
Thursday, January 2, 2020
[Reuters] New year cheer for stocks as rally rumbles on [Reuters] Dollar off to a flat start for 2020 as others find the fizz [Reuters] Oil climbs on U.S.-China trade optimism, Middle East tensions [Reuters] [...]
Wednesday, January 1, 2020
[Reuters] China cuts banks' reserve ratios again, frees up $115 billion to spur economy [CNBC] Small business pay checks are growing at a fast pace as job gains slow [Reuters] China's central bank says economic [...]
Tuesday, December 31, 2019
[Reuters] Global stocks end 2019 close to record highs [Reuters] Oil falls but on track for biggest yearly rise since 2016 [Reuters] Fed sees small takeup of repo, rates steady for critical year-end [Reuters] China [...]
Monday, December 30, 2019
[Reuters] World stocks hold onto gains, dollar under pressure [Reuters] Repo rate steady before year-end [Reuters] Treasuries - Yields rise, yield curve steepest since October 2018 [Reuters] Oil rises to three-month high on upbeat data, [...]
Sunday, December 29, 2019
[Reuters] China commerce ministry says it has proactively dealt with U.S. trade frictions [CNBC] The bankruptcies that rocked the retail industry in 2019 [Reuters] U.S. monitoring North Korea closely, finds situation concerning: White House [Reuters] [...]
Saturday, December 28, 2019
[Reuters] China to switch benchmark for floating-rate loans to lower funding costs [Bloomberg] China to Scrap Benchmark Lending Rate in Shift to New System [WSJ] Leveraged-Loan Downgrades Signal Cracks in Corporate-Debt Rally [WSJ] Bills [...]
December 27, 2019: Just the Facts
For the Week: The S&P500 added 0.6% (up 29.2% y-t-d), and the Dow increased 0.7% (up 22.8%). The Utilities slipped 0.3% (up 22.2%). The Banks added 0.3% (up 32.3%), while the Broker/Dealers declined 0.8% (up [...]
Friday, December 27, 2019
[Reuters] Wall St. set for another record high as year-end rally continues [Reuters] Oil hits three-month highs as strong U.S. consumer spending underpins growth hopes [Reuters] Fed accepts $25.80 bln at overnight repo operation [Reuters] [...]
Thursday, December 26, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks hover near record highs as investors count on trade deal [Reuters] Oil hits highest since September on trade hopes, OPEC cuts [Reuters] Record online sales give U.S. holiday shopping season a boost: report [...]
Wednesday, December 25, 2019
[AP] Japan stocks lower, China little-changed on Christmas Day [Reuters] Global stocks hover near record highs, gold breaches $1,500 [Reuters] Trump says he and Xi will sign China trade deal [Reuters] China moves to clamp [...]
Tuesday, December 24, 2019
[Reuters] Festive world markets pause for breath near record highs [Reuters] Oil rises on supply cut pledges and slow return of Gulf field [Reuters] Fed accepts $24.80 bln at overnight repo operation [CNBC] IPOs overall [...]
Monday, December 23, 2019
[Reuters] Global shares hover near record high as year draws to close [Reuters] U.S. core capital goods orders barely rise; shipments drop [Reuters] Repo is Wall Street's big year-end worry. Why? [Reuters] Leveraged loan market [...]
Sunday, December 22, 2019
[Reuters] Trump says trade deal with China to be signed 'very shortly' [Reuters] Clashes as police try to clear Hong Kong protesters after Uighur support rally [Bloomberg] Our Guide to What the World’s Top [...]
Looking to 2020 and the ’20s – December 20, 2019
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Looking to 2020 and the ’20s We tend to think that a turn of the calendar, even [...]
Saturday, December 21, 2019
[CNBC] Trump signs bills to avoid shutdown, scrap Obamacare taxes and raise tobacco buying age [Reuters] China criticizes U.S. defense bill as interference [Reuters] Australia's bushfires circle Sydney as temperatures soar [Reuters] Hundreds arrested in [...]
December 20, 2019: Last of the Great Central Bankers
Oregon’s economy was at the time ravaged by our nation’s high inflation and Paul Volcker’s battle to rein it in. The state’s unemployment rate was over 10% when I graduated from the University of Oregon [...]
Friday, December 20, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks hit record high, sterling endures rough week [Reuters] Oil hovers near three-month highs on trade deal progress; set for third weekly rise [Reuters] U.S. third-quarter growth unrevised at 2.1% [The Hill] Budget watchdogs [...]
Thursday, December 19, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks hold steady as investors shrug off Trump impeachment [Reuters] Bond yields rise as Sweden ends negative rates, stocks drift lower [Reuters] Sweden ends five years of negative rates with hike to zero [Reuters] [...]
Wednesday, December 18, 2019
[Reuters] World shares remain near record peaks [Reuters] Oil falls as U.S. inventories rise but demand hopes stem bigger drop [CNBC] Fannie Mae boosts 2020 housing forecast ‘significantly’ [CNBC] Weekly mortgage applications drop 5% as [...]
Tuesday, December 17, 2019
[AP] Global stock markets more subdued after US hits records [Reuters] Aussie dollar falls, pound tanks on renewed fears over trade [Reuters] Oil poised near three-month highs on U.S.-China trade hopes, supply cuts [CNBC] US [...]
Monday, December 16, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks rise as investors cheer preliminary U.S.-China trade deal [Reuters] Overnight repo rate rises to highest since Oct. 30 [CNBC] US and China reached a trade agreement, but some key details are still unclear [...]
Sunday, December 15, 2019
[CNBC] Congress faces high-stakes week with impeachment, trade and funding votes ahead [Reuters] China suspends planned tariffs scheduled for Dec. 15 on some U.S. goods [Reuters] UK PM Johnson eyes parliament vote before Christmas to [...]
Good Citizens Are Good Investments – December 14, 2019
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Good Citizens Are Good Investments ESG, or Environmental and Social Governance investing, has become a hot topic [...]
Saturday, December 14, 2019
[Reuters] Details of U.S.-China "phase one" trade deal to come out over weekend -Mnuchin [Reuters] China to target around 6% growth in 2020, step up state spending: sources [Reuters] Hong Kong leader Lam visits Beijing [...]
Q3 2019 Z.1 Flow of Funds: Repo Madness
Q3 was yet another fascinating quarter for U.S. finance. Total Credit (Non-Financial, Financial and Foreign U.S. borrowings) jumped a nominal $1.075 TN, the strongest quarterly gain since Q4 2007’s $1.159 TN, ending September at $74.862 [...]
Friday, December 13, 2019
[Reuters] Wall St. higher on trade deal hopes; tariff deadline closes in [Reuters] Shares and sterling soar as trade and Brexit fog lifts [Reuters] Euro zone bonds take a beating as trade, Brexit uncertainties clear [...]
Friday, December 13, 2019
[Reuters] Asian stocks see brighter world as trade, UK clouds lift [BBC] Election results 2019: PM hails Brexit 'mandate' as Tories set for big win [Reuters] Senior China diplomat says U.S. seriously damaged hard-won mutual [...]
Thursday, December 12, 2019
[Reuters] Wall Street opens lower as focus shifts to tariff deadline [Reuters] Global stocks test record highs, pound braces for election all-nighter [Reuters] Dollar licks wounds as Fed disappoints bulls, UK election awaited [Reuters] High-stakes [...]
Wednesday, December 11, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks flat with focus on tariff deadline, Fed decision [Reuters] U.S. consumer prices increase more than expected in November [CNBC] The Fed is expected to hold rates steady and vow to keep short-term lending [...]
Tuesday, December 10, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks turn positive after report of possible delay of December tariffs [Reuters] U.S. productivity weak in third quarter; labor costs revised lower [CNBC] Democrats and the Trump administration near a tentative North American trade [...]
Monday, December 9, 2019
[Reuters] Wall Street drops after weak Chinese data; Tariff deadline looms [Reuters] Stocks whacked as China export decline highlights trade war damage [Reuters] China says hopes it can reach trade agreement with U.S. as soon [...]
Sunday, December 8, 2019
[Reuters] China November exports fall, but import growth hints of recovering demand [AP] China’s trade with US sinks in November amid tariff war [Reuters] China's potential growth below 6% over next five years: central bank [...]
Saturday, December 7, 2019
[Reuters] Wall Street Week Ahead: Tariff deadline keeps focus on trade as 2019 draws to close [Reuters] China's November forex reserves ease to $3.096 trillion, focus stays on trade talks [Reuters] Trump calls for World [...]
December 6, 2019: Crazy Extremis
Dr. Bernanke has referred to the understanding of the forces behind the Great Depression as the “Holy Grail of Economics.” But was the Great Depression chiefly the consequence of post-crash policy mistakes, as conventional thinking [...]
The Worm Begins to Turn for Unloved Sectors – December 6, 2019
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: The Worm Begins to Turn for Unloved Sectors The “Santa Claus” rally appears to be upon us [...]
Friday, December 6, 2019
[Reuters] 'Moving right along'? Shares nudge up after Trump trade talk [Reuters] Oil drops as market awaits ratification of OPEC+ supply cut [AP] China waiving tariff hikes on US soybeans, pork [Reuters] Saudi, Russia win [...]
Thursday, December 5, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks keep the faith, sterling gallops higher [Reuters] OPEC and allies prepare to deepen oil output cuts [Reuters] China maintains tariffs must be reduced for phase one trade deal with U.S. [CNBC] China gives [...]
Wednesday, December 4, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks back to 'risk-on' after Trump trade war scare [Reuters] Trump says trade talks with China going "very well" [Reuters] U.S. private sector job growth at six-month low in November: ADP [Reuters] Trump comments, [...]
Tuesday, December 3, 2019
[AP] Stocks fall as Trump downplays chances of China trade deal [Reuters] Yuan hit after Trump says trade deal could come after 2020 election [Reuters] Oil falls as Trump says China trade deal could be [...]
Monday, December 2, 2019
[Reuters] Stock rebound fizzles after Trump restores Brazil, Argentina tariffs [Reuters] Oil rises over 1% on hopes for deeper OPEC cuts, Chinese factory growth [Reuters] China suspends U.S. military visits to Hong Kong, sanctions U.S.-based [...]
Sunday, December 1, 2019
[Reuters] China wants U.S. tariffs rolled back in phase one trade deal: Global Times [Yahoo/Bloomberg] The Way Out for a World Economy Hooked On Debt? Yet More Debt [Reuters] China will not resort to quantitative [...]
Saturday, November 30, 2019
[CNBC] China’s factory activity unexpectedly returns to growth in November [Reuters] That frenzied Black Friday crush? Not this year [Greenwich Times] Corporate debt nears a record $10 trillion, and borrowing binge poses new risks [Reuters] [...]
November 29, 2019: Just the Facts
For the Week: The S&P500 gained 1.0% (up 25.3% y-t-d), and the Dow added 0.6% (up 20.3%). The Utilities were unchanged (up 19.0%). The Banks added 0.4% (up 27.9%), and the Broker/Dealers jumped 2.1% (up [...]
Friday, November 29, 2019
[Reuters] Wall Street slips after U.S. law on Hong Kong rekindles trade fears [Reuters] Global stocks dip on trade worries as record high stays elusive [Reuters] Japan's factory output posts largest fall in almost two [...]
Thursday, November 28, 2019
[Reuters] World stocks stall as U.S.-China tensions flare again [Reuters] Yen gains, yuan falls as Hong Kong tensions muddy trade progress [Reuters] Oil falls as U.S. rights bill fuels tensions with China [CNBC] China accuses [...]
Wednesday, November 27, 2019
[Reuters] Global stocks nearing record highs on trade hopes [Reuters] Dollar boosted by trade deal optimism, Swedish crown hits 4-month high [CNBC] US GDP rose 2.1% in the third quarter, vs 1.9% reading expected [CNBC] [...]
Tuesday, November 26, 2019
[Reuters] Wall Street opens flat, eyes on consumer data [Reuters] World stocks edge off highs to await U.S.-China progress [Reuters] Dollar hits two-week high on yen, yuan up after China-U.S. trade call [Reuters] China trade [...]
Monday, November 25, 2019
[Reuters] World shares climb on trade hopes [Reuters] Dollar boosted by trade progress signs, Brexit promise lifts sterling [Reuters] Oil kicks off week with gains on fresh hopes for U.S.-China trade talks [Reuters] Trump says [...]
Sunday, November 4, 2019
[CNBC] US wants China trade deal but won’t turn blind eye to Hong Kong, Trump national security advisor says [Reuters] Still hope for U.S.-China deal this year: U.S. official [CNBC] Hong Kong vote hits record [...]
Saturday, November 23, 2019
[Reuters] China attacks U.S. at G20 as the world's biggest source of instability [CNBC] Iran faces its most critical moment since the 1979 Revolution [Reuters] Time to calm down': Hong Kong protests simmer ahead of [...]
November 22, 2019: Weak Link
Last week from The Institute of International Finance (IIF) (a summary from a members-only report): “Global debt has topped $250 billion – 320% of GDP: emerging market debt hits a new record of $71.4 trillion [...]
Is There a Doctor In the House? – November 22, 2019
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Is There a Doctor In the House? Copper is often referred to as “Doctor Copper” because it [...]
Friday, November 22, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks edge higher as China fuels trade deal optimism [Reuters] Oil holds near two-month high on OPEC+ extension expectations [CNBC] Trump says trade deal with China is ‘very close’ [AP] China’s Xi says Beijing [...]
Thursday, November 21, 2019
[Reuters] Risk on, risk off, repeat! U.S.-China trade deal faces HK hurdle [Reuters] Dollar dips as spotlight remains firmly on U.S./China trade [Reuters] China says it will strive to reach 'phase one' trade deal with [...]
Wednesday, November 20, 2019
[Reuters] Wall Street lower as Hong Kong bill escalates U.S.-China tensions [Reuters] Sino-U.S. spat over Hong Kong knocks world shares off 22-month high [CNBC] China accuses US of interference after Senate passes bills supporting Hong [...]
Tuesday, November 19, 2019
[Reuters] Shares scale 22-month peak as focus turns to growth [Reuters] U.S. housing starts rebound; permits highest in over 12 years [Reuters] Trump says he told Fed's Powell U.S. interest rates are too high [Reuters] [...]
Energy Performance Is Dismal, but the Story Is in Its Prospects – November 18, 2019
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Energy Performance Is Dismal, but the Story Is in Its Prospects Despite the Dow making new highs, [...]
Monday, November 18, 2019
[Reuters] Shares grind towards record high as China trims key rate [CNBC] Mood in Beijing about trade deal is pessimistic, government source tells CNBC [CNBC] The United States’ dubious privilege of being a key currency [...]
Sunday, November 17, 2019
[Reuters] China, U.S. had 'constructive' phone call on trade: Xinhua [MarketWatch] U.S. stock market at record but farm bankruptcies at highest since 2011 [CNBC] Saudi Aramco’s IPO is set to value the oil giant at [...]
Saturday, November 16, 2019
[Reuters] China central bank to maintain prudent policy to prevent inflation from spreading [Reuters] China's PLA soldiers help clean up Hong Kong streets as protesters leave campuses [Reuters] Protesters retake part of bridge in central [...]
November 15, 2019: China Update
We shouldn’t read too much into one month. With a holiday week, October is typically a sluggish period for lending in China. But at $88 billion, the growth in Aggregate Financing was about a third [...]
Friday, November 15, 2019
[Reuters] U.S.-China trade hopes revive stocks, protests leave scars [Reuters] U.S. retail sales rebound, but big-ticket purchases drop [Reuters] U.S., China trade talks to continue Friday: U.S. commerce chief [Reuters] China central bank injects 200 [...]
Thursday, November 14, 2019
[Reuters] World stocks sink as China slowdown deepens, German economy weak [Reuters] Oil rises after OPEC's Barkindo says U.S. shale growth may slow in 2020 [Reuters] U.S. producer prices increase by the most in six [...]
Wednesday, November 13, 2019
[AP] Global stocks sink after Trump threatens more China tariffs [Reuters] Gold rises as trade uncertainty hurts risk appetite [Reuters] U.S. consumer prices increase more than expected in October [AP] Powell to testify before Congress [...]
Tuesday, November 12, 2019
[Reuters] Global stocks climb, investors seek enlightenment from Trump on trade [Reuters] JGB prices stumble after weak 30-year auction [Reuters] Oil rises further as trade hopes support [MarketWatch] Small-Business Optimism Rises in October: NFIB [Reuters] [...]
Monday, November 11, 2019
[Reuters] Global stocks drop as Hong Kong violence rattles investors [Reuters] China and Hong Kong stocks drop as weak data, protests weigh [Reuters] Oil drops on concern over U.S.-China trade talks progress, oversupply [Reuters] China [...]
Sunday, November 10, 2019
[Reuters] Trump says China trade talks moving along nicely, but deal has to be right [Reuters] Violence spreads across Hong Kong's New Territories on 24th weekend of unrest [Reuters] 'No need to panic': Lebanon banking [...]
Saturday, November 9, 2019
[Reuters] China factory prices falter, while inflation soars to near eight-year high [CNBC] ETF inflows rise to a record $4 trillion and top industry expert says it’s still ‘early days’ [Reuters] Germany marks 30th anniversary [...]
November 8, 2019: Extraordinary Monetary Disorder
M2 money supply has increased $796 billion y-t-d to $15.245 TN. With two months to go, 2019 M2 growth is on track to easily exceed 2016’s record $854 billion expansion. Recent M2 growth is nothing [...]
The Big Picture Becomes Really Big – November 8, 2019
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: The Big Picture Becomes Really Big As we are beginning to wind down through the third quarter [...]
Friday, November 8, 2019
[Reuters] Trade war caution takes edge off stellar rally in world stocks [Reuters] China's October exports, imports fall less than expected [Reuters] Fed's Bostic says he would have dissented against last rate cut, economy is [...]
Thursday, November 7, 2019
[Reuters] U.S.-China trade deal hopes restart stocks rally [Reuters] China says it has agreed with U.S. to cancel tariffs in phases [Reuters] Taiwan warns of possible attack if China's slowdown 'becomes serious' [Reuters] Iran holding [...]
Wednesday, November 6, 2019
[Reuters] Wall Street near highs after upbeat earnings run [Reuters] Risk rally pauses as markets await signals on trade [Reuters] French 10-year bond yield turns positive on improving risk sentiment [Reuters] U.S. productivity drops by [...]
Tuesday, November 5, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks gain on trade deal optimism; service sector data awaited [Reuters] China presses Trump for more tariff roll-backs in 'phase one' trade deal [CNBC] The trade deficit got smaller in September as the US [...]
Monday, November 4, 2019
[Reuters] Trade hopes lift stocks as recession fears recede [Reuters] Oil falls on caution ahead of economic data, offsets trade deal optimism [Reuters] Britain set for 1970s public spending levels as parties woo voters: report [...]
Sunday, November 3, 2019
[Reuters] Big central banks move to wait-and-see mode [Reuters] Wall Street's leading stocks reveal investor caution [Reuters] UK PM Johnson rejects calls for no-deal Brexit in election pitch [Reuters] Hong Kong mall clash ends in [...]
Learnings from Earnings – November 1, 2019
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: "Learnings from Earnings" We are knee deep in earnings season here at MWM, and have been on [...]
Saturday, November 2, 2019
[Reuters] President Xi goes to Iowa? Trump floats farm state to seal trade deal [Reuters] In seismic shift, Britain orders immediate moratorium on fracking [AP] ASEAN meeting grapples with trade war, territorial disputes [Reuters] [...]
November 1, 2019: Music to the Markets
October non-farm payrolls expanded a stronger-than-expected 128,000 (estimate 85k), in a month when the GM strike reduced payroll growth by upwards of 42,000 and another 20,000 positions were lost to a shrinking census workforce. September’s [...]
Friday, November 1, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks extend gains as October job growth slows less than expected [Reuters] Oil prices edge up, but set for big weekly loss on rising output, trade woes [CNBC] October job creation comes in at [...]
Thursday, October 31, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks drop as U.S.-China trade worries resurface [Reuters] Oil prices dip as U.S. crude stocks and demand outlook weigh [Reuters] U.S. consumer spending rises moderately, wages flat [Reuters] China's factory activity shrinks for sixth [...]
Wednesday, October 30, 2019
[Reuters] Wall Street slightly higher; Fed decision looms [Reuters] Gold firms as investors await Fed verdict [CNBC] US GDP rose 1.9% in the third quarter, vs 1.6% growth expected [AP] U.S. private sector job growth [...]
Tuesday, October 29, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks cling to gains on trade hopes, mixed earnings weigh on Europe [Reuters] China lifts yuan midpoint to strongest level in over 2 months [Reuters] Three-peat? Fed copies 1990s playbook in bid to avert [...]
Monday, October 28, 2019
[Reuters] Shares near two-month highs on hopes of trade deal, Fed cut [Reuters] EU nations agree Brexit delay until January 31 as PM Johnson seeks election [Reuters] Argentine cenbank will do all possible to protect [...]
Sunday, October 27, 2019
[MarketWatch] Three things to watch when the Fed meets next week [Reuters] Macri the underdog as Argentina heads to the polls [Reuters] Hong Kong protesters hurl petrol bombs after police fire tear gas to clear [...]
Saturday, October 26, 2019
[MarketWatch] Three things to watch when the Fed meets next week [Reuters] Lagarde will take ECB out of ivory tower: De Guindos in El Pais [Reuters] Catalonia's mayors call for self-determination before protest march [Reuters] [...]
October 25, 2019: Whatever It Takes to Never Give Up
Any central bank head that passes through an eight-year term without once raising rates has some explaining to do. To leave monetary policy extremely loose for such an extended period comes with major consequences (can [...]
How We Do What We Do – October 25, 2019
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: How We Do What We Do Earnings season has once again rolled around, and we thought it [...]
Friday, October 25, 2019
[Reuters] Muted data and Brexit woes douse stocks rally [Reuters] Gold hits 2-week high as weak U.S. data boosts rate-cut bets [Reuters] Oil prices steady, on track for large weekly gain [Reuters] China to ask [...]
Thursday, October 24, 2019
[Reuters] Wall Street higher on Microsoft, Tesla results [Reuters] Oil slips on profit-taking, weak demand outlook [Reuters] White House aide: Phase one U.S.-China trade deal targets intellectual property [Reuters] U.S. core capital goods orders drop [...]
Wednesday, October 23, 2019
[Reuters] Shares sapped by tech problems and Brexit snags [Reuters] Brexit confusion weighs on pound, dents risk appetite [Reuters] NY Fed accepts $49.854 overnight repo bids [Reuters] U.S. companies facing worker shortage race to automate [...]
Tuesday, October 22, 2019
[Reuters] Shares rise amid Brexit tussle as focus shifts to earnings [Reuters] Chinese vice foreign minister says progress made in trade talks with U.S. [Reuters] Brexit in the balance as Johnson faces crunch votes [Reuters] [...]
Tactical Short Strategy Q3 October 17, 2019 Transcript
David: Hello everyone, thanks for jumping on the call today. Our special greetings to our account holders. It is our endeavor, our goal, through hard work and passion and motivation that we have to [...]
Monday, October 21, 2019
[Reuter] Hopes for progress in trade war and Brexit buoy stocks [Reuters] Sterling hits 5-1/2-month high on hopes for Brexit deal [Reuters] British PM pushes for Brexit deal vote after being forced to seek delay [...]
Sunday, October 20, 2019
[Reuters] Wall Street Week Ahead: Tech haves and have-nots face third-quarter tests [Reuters] Brexit will happen on Oct. 31 despite PM's unsigned delay request, UK says [Reuters] EU plays for time as Johnson spars with [...]
Saturday, October 19, 2019
[CNBC] UK lawmakers delay Brexit vote and force Boris Johnson to ask for deadline extension [BBC] MPs back Brexit deal delay [Reuters] Brexit day of reckoning: PM Johnson battles further delay [Reuters] China says will [...]
October 18, 2019: China Watch
I’ve held the view that Chinese finance has been at the epicenter of international market unease. The U.S./China trade war was not the predominant global risk. However, it has had the potential to become a [...]
WeWonder About WeWork – October 18, 2019
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: WeWonder About WeWork Excessive monetary stimulus has created many kinds of economic disconnects, and I would encourage [...]
Friday, October 18, 2019
[Reuters] Shares sapped by poor China growth, dollar gets weekly mauling [Reuters] China third-quarter GDP grows 6%, slowest pace in almost three decades [Reuters] China's September property investment resilient, buoyed by new construction [Reuters] Six [...]
Tactical Short Strategy – October 17, 2019
Tactical Short Strategy Conference Call - October 17, 2019 CLICK HERE FOR THE TRANSCRIPT Disclaimer: Advisory services are offered by McAlvany Wealth Management, an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and [...]
Thursday, October 17, 2019
[Reuters] Wall Street cheers Brexit deal; Netflix, Morgan Stanley results set positive mood [Reuters] European markets roar approval at new Brexit deal [Reuters] Britain clinches Brexit deal, Johnson now faces parliament hurdle [Reuters] U.S. housing [...]
Wednesday, October 16, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks slip on renewed U.S.-China trade war concerns [Reuters] Sterling falters as Brexit approaches its endgame [Reuters] U.S. retail sales post first decline in seven months [AP] Brexit talks don’t get breakthrough, continue on [...]
Tuesday, October 15, 2019
[Reuters] Global stocks edge higher on Brexit hopes, trade optimism fades [AP] China tempers hopes about US tariff truce [Reuters] China wants tariffs cut to enable $50 billion imports from U.S.: Bloomberg [Reuters] China Sept [...]
Monday, October 14, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks dip as report China wants more trade talks tempers optimism [Reuters] Turkish lira slips but traders doubt Trump's sanctions threat [CNBC] China wants another round of talks before signing phase one of the [...]
Sunday, October 13, 2019
[Reuters] Countdown to divorce: Meetings that will decide Brexit [Reuters] ECB's Holzmann calls current monetary policy 'wrong', hopes for new course under Lagarde [Reuters] Russia looks at alternatives to dollar for energy transactions [Reuters] China's [...]
Energy – Being Forced to Get Lean and Mean? – October 11, 2019
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Energy – Being Forced to Get Lean and Mean? It’s been another choppy and volatile week in [...]
Saturday, October 12, 2019
[Reuters] U.S. outlines 'Phase 1' trade deal with China, suspends October tariff hike [CNBC] Wall Street has doubts after partial trade deal: ‘I don’t think this gets us to Christmas’ [Reuters] Wall Street Week Ahead: [...]
October 11, 2019: What the Heck is Happening in the Cayman Islands?
Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany Thursday, October 17th, at 4:00PM Eastern/ 2:00pm Mountain time for the Tactical Short Q3 recap conference call, “Managing Short-Side ‘Beta’ in an Extraordinary Environment.” Click here to register. [...]
Friday, October 11, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks bask in 'very good' trade talks, Brexit deal hopes [Reuters] Oil jumps briefly after reports of Iranian tanker attack [CNBC] Stock futures rise after optimistic Trump comments on US-China trade [CNBC] Optimism is [...]
Thursday, October 10, 2019
[Reuters] Dollar takes a dive, euro catapulted higher as U.S.-China talks start [CNBC] Dow futures slip in wild overnight trading after report that trade talks have stalled [CNBC] It’s been a crazy 12 hours for [...]
Wednesday, October 9, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks grind higher as investors cling to trade truce hopes [Reuters] Oil rises on signs of easing U.S.-China tensions [CNBC] China ready to discuss a partial trade deal and will increase US agricultural purchases, [...]
Tuesday, October 8, 2019
[Reuters] World stocks run out of steam amid trade jitters [Reuters] European stocks tumble further as Brexit, trade worries deepen [CNBC] US producer prices post the biggest decline in eight months in September [Reuters] White [...]
Monday, October 7, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks tiptoe higher as U.S. jobs boost offsets weak European data, trade anxiety [Reuters] Yen rises, offshore yuan dips on caution over Sino-U.S. trade talks [Reuters] Oil prices up as U.S.-China trade talks loom, [...]
Sunday, October 6, 2019
[Reuters] Wall St Week Ahead-Capital spending outlook another worry ahead of earnings [Reuters] As Fed policymakers comb data, few decisive signals on outlook [Reuters] UK could move on 'mechanism' of Northern Ireland consent [Yahoo/Bloomberg] [...]
Saturday, October 5, 2019
[Reuters] As Fed policymakers comb data, few decisive signals on outlook [Reuters] Spain's Sanchez says he will defend food sector against 'unacceptable' U.S. tariffs [Reuters] Hong Kong goes quiet as subway, shops close after night [...]
October 4, 2019: Resurrecting M2
This week’s disappointing ISM reports dominated business headlines: “US Manufacturing Survey Shows Worst Reading in a Decade.” “U.S. Factory Gauge Hits 10-Year Low as World Slowdown Widens.” “U.S. Manufacturers Experience Worst Month Since 2007-2009 Great Recession.” [...]
In Focus: The Quest for Yield – October 4, 2019
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: In Focus: The Quest for Yield The current momentum-driven and choppy market environment presents numerous challenges for [...]
Friday, October 4, 2019
[Reuters] After bruising week, global stocks make fragile gains [Reuters] Oil edges higher but on track for big weekly loss [CNBC] US created 136,000 jobs in September, vs 145,000 expected [CNBC] Trade gap widens more [...]
Thursday, October 3, 2019
[Reuters] Trade fears, growth woes haunt global stocks as bond yields slide [Reuters] Oil slips further below $58 as economic gloom weighs [Reuters] U.S. widens trade war with tariffs on European planes, cheese, whisky to [...]
Wednesday, October 2, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks fall to lowest in a month after U.S. manufacturing shock sparks growth worries [Reuters] Gold rises as global growth worries boost safe-haven appeal [Reuters] Oil steadies amid fall in U.S. inventories, weak economic [...]
Tuesday, October 1, 2019
[Reuters] Dollar powers to 29-month high, stocks stay standing despite weak data [Reuters] Oil prices rebound on lower output from U.S., Russia, OPEC [Reuters] N.Y. Fed awards $54.85 billion in overnight repos [Reuters] Fed can [...]
Monday, September 30, 2019
[Reuters] Shares steady as investors shrug off U.S. delisting threat [Reuters] Oil down more than 1% on trade war jitters and Chinese data [Reuters] China Sept factory activity surprises, expands fastest in 19 mths-Caixin PMI [...]
Sunday, September 29, 2019
[Reuters] China urges 'calm and rational' resolution to U.S.-Sino trade war [AP] China to send its top trade negotiator to US for talks [Reuters] Citing climate risk, investors bet against mortgage market [Reuters] Street fires [...]
Saturday, September 28, 2019
[CNBC] US pulling investment from China would be an ‘unmitigated disaster,’ says Yale’s Stephen Roach [Reuters] Spillover: world economies' next big headache [Reuters] Moment of truth coming for Brexit with time running out, EU and [...]
September 27, 2019: Q2 2019 Z.1 and Repos
Non-Financial Debt (NFD) expanded $408 billion during Q1 to a record $53.015 TN. This was down from Q1’s $765 billion expansion. On a seasonally-adjusted and annualized (SAAR) basis, Q2 NFD growth slowed to $1.652 TN [...]
The Nitty-Gritty of Prudent Investing – September 27, 2019
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: The Nitty-Gritty of Prudent Investing This week we’ll take a bit of a break from discussion of [...]
Friday, September 27, 2019
[Reuters] Shares rise as trade optimism muffles impeachment noise [CNBC] Oil prices head for big weekly loss as supply fears wane [Reuters] U.S. consumer spending slows in August; incomes rise [AP] US durable goods orders [...]
Thursday, September 26, 2019
[Reuters] U.S.-China trade optimism lifts stocks, dollar shrugs [MarketWatch] U.S. trade deficit in goods widens slightly in August [AP] US economy grew at modest 2% rate in second quarter [Reuters] U.S. business investment much weaker [...]
Wednesday, September 25, 2019
[Reuters] Shares stumble over Trump impeachment threat, China jibes [CNBC] Higher interest rates send weekly mortgage applications tanking 10% [AP] China rejects Trump criticism on trade [CNBC] US-China cold war and rising protectionism could split [...]
Tuesday, September 24, 2019
[Reuters] Trade optimism bolsters shares, pound whipsawed by Brexit drama [Reuters] Oil prices fall due to weak economic data, Saudi output recovery [MarketWatch] New York Fed term repo operation twice oversubscribed [CNBC] Signs point to [...]
Monday, September 23, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks sink on dismal economic data, mixed trade signals [Reuters] European stocks sink after weak business surveys [CNBC] Chinese theft of trade secrets on the rise, the US Justice Department warns [MarketWatch] Stock market’s [...]
Sunday, September 22, 2019
[Reuters] China needs to change way it finances economy, think tank says [Reuters] Indian shadow bank Altico says evaluating options after default [CNBC] More $10 billion software companies are being minted than ever before — [...]
Saturday, September 21, 2019
[Reuters] United States sending troops to bolster Saudi defenses after attack [Reuters] Hong Kong police fire tear gas after protesters throw petrol bombs [NYT] From Underwear to Cars, India’s Economy Is Fraying [WSJ] Fed [...]
September 20, 2019: No Coincidences
September 20 – Wall Street Journal (Daniel Kruger): “The Federal Reserve Bank of New York will offer to add at least $75 billion daily to the financial system through Oct. 10, prolonging its efforts to [...]
Markets Focus on Energy and Precious Metals; So Do We, but Details Matter – September 20, 2019
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Markets Focus on Energy and Precious Metals; So Do We, but Details Matter It was great to [...]
Friday, September 20, 2019
[Reuters] Stimulus soothes stocks as oil heads higher [Reuters] Gold edges higher on soft dollar, heads for first weekly gain in four [Reuters] U.S. repo rate rises ahead of Fed repo operation [Reuters] China cuts [...]
Thursday, September 19, 2109
[Reuters] Shares inch higher after Fed cut, BOJ keeps powder dry [Reuters] U.S., Chinese trade deputies face off in Washington amid deep differences [Reuters] BOJ keeps policy steady, signals chance of easing in October [Reuters] [...]
Wednesday, September 18, 2019
[AP] Stocks mixed ahead of Fed, oil dips on Saudi output recovery [Reuters] Oil steps back on Saudi supply reassurance, focus shifts to Fed [Reuters] From oil shocks to funding strains, Fed confronts new complexities [...]
Tuesday, September 17, 2019
[Reuters] Oil sheds gains, stocks dip as Fed comes into focus [Reuters] Trade talks seen as unlikely to mend U.S.-China divide [Reuters] U.S., Chinese trade deputy talks to start on Thursday: USTR [CNBC] Detailed satellite [...]
Monday, September 16, 2019
[Reuters] Oil soars, stocks dip after Saudi supply shock [Reuters] Biggest oil price surge since 1991 as 'locked and loaded' U.S. points finger at Iran for attack [Reuters] U.S. stock futures fall after Saudi oil [...]
Sunday, September 15, 2019
[CNBC] Saudi stock market dives, crude futures to jump after drone attack on oil plants [Reuters] Saudi, Gulf stocks fall after attacks on Aramco oil plants [CNBC] Oil could rise $10 per barrel after drone [...]
September 14, 2019: Just the Facts
For the Week: The S&P500 gained 1.0% (up 20.0% y-t-d), and the Dow rose 1.6% (up 16.7%). The Utilities were unchanged (up 18.8%). The Banks surged 7.8% (up 18.8%), and the Broker/Dealers jumped 5.2% (up [...]
Saturday, September 14, 2019
[Reuters] Take Five: Of Fed-aches and other central banks [Reuters] White House to roll out tax cut plan mid-2020: Kudlow [CNBC] This was the worst week for mortgage rates in 3 years – and it [...]
Friday, September 13, 2019
[Reuters] Shares, bond yields perch at six-week highs [Reuters] Gold gains on weaker dollar, rising equities cap upside [CNBC] US retail sales rose more than expected in August as auto buying jumps [CNBC] Trump says [...]
Thursday, September 12, 2019
[Reuters] Trade war thaw and ECB stimulus hopes buoys stocks [Reuters] Oil prices fall as OPEC+ talks output compliance, not cuts [Reuters] As trade talks loom, Chinese firms look into buying U.S. farm goods [...]
Wednesday, September 11, 2019
[AP] Global stocks rise on signs of easing trade tensions [Reuters] Investors unwind bearish bets as optimism grows on trade and stimulus [Reuters] Treasuries - U.S. yields rise after producer prices data [Reuters] U.S. producer [...]
Tuesday, September 10, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks edge lower as China data revives recession fears [Reuters] Bond yields climb as ECB stimulus expectations fade [Reuters] Oil hits six-week high on hopes of extended OPEC output cuts [Reuters] China August factory [...]
Monday, September 9, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks gain on stimulus hopes, pound hits six-week high [Reuters] Oil rises as Saudi Arabia signals OPEC cuts to continue under new energy minister [Reuters] Ireland warns PM Johnson: no-backstop equals no-deal Brexit [Reuters] [...]
Sunday, September 8, 2019
[AP] China’s trade with US shrinks as tariff war worsens [Reuters] China's August exports unexpectedly shrink as U.S. shipments slump [Reuters] Sticking to Brexit plan, UK's Johnson will not seek a delay [Reuters] Hong Kong [...]
Saturday, September 7, 2019
[AP] White House adviser compares China trade talks to Cold War [Reuters] MPs prepare court action to enforce Brexit delay [Reuters] UK's Labour to crack down on finance bonuses if it wins power: FT [...]
September 7, 2019: $150 Billion Global Bond Binge
After an extraordinary August, markets are showing no inclination for stability to begin September. Jumping 1.3% Thursday on news of an October restart of trade talks, the S&P500 gained 1.8% [...]
Energy Takes the Stage – September 6, 2019
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Energy Takes the Stage We are now post-earnings reports, and conference season is upon us. We are [...]
Friday, September 6, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks gains after weaker-than-expected jobs report [Reuters] Job growth sees another weak month in August as payrolls rise just 130,000 [Reuters] China cuts banks' reserve ratios, frees up $126 billion for loans as economy [...]
Thursday, September 5, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks higher on news of U.S.-China trade talks [Reuters] Treasuries - U.S. yields extend rise after ADP U.S. jobs data [Reuters] Oil prices rise after U.S. confirms trade talks with China to start [CNBC] [...]
Wednesday, September 4, 2019
[Reuters] Easing political worries lift shares, pound jumps [Reuters] U.S. trade deficit narrows slightly as exports rise [Reuters] Weekly mortgage refinances fall further, despite lower interest rates [Reuters] China service sector activity rises to three-month [...]
Tuesday, September 3, 2019
[Reuters] Global stocks stumble toward two-month lows as U.S. data looms [Reuters] Argentina's peso under scrutiny following capital controls, as U.S. markets reopen [AP] Pound slides on Brexit, on track for lowest close since 1985 [...]
Monday, September 2, 2019
[MarketWatch] U.S. stock futures weaken as tariffs go into effect [Reuters] Global stocks slip on tariffs, Argentina hit by capital controls [Reuters] Oil falls as U.S., China add more tariffs in trade war [Reuters] Argentina [...]
Sunday, September 1, 2019
[CNBC] Trump’s 15% tariffs on $112 billion in Chinese goods take effect [Reuters] China, U.S. to collect additional tariffs on each other's goods [Reuters] China starts to impose additional tariffs on some U.S. goods [Reuters] [...]
Saturday, August 31, 2019
[CNBC] Trump’s tariffs on $112 billion of Chinese imports hit at midnight [Reuters] China's factory activity shrinks for fourth month as trade woes deepen [CNBC] August was a wild month for Wall Street, here’s what [...]
August 30, 2019: Dudley Sticks His Neck Out
What a fascinating environment; each week bringing something extraordinary. Yet there is this dreadful feeling that things are advancing toward some type of cataclysm. “U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war with China keeps undermining the [...]
Not All “Safe Havens” Are Safe – August 30, 2019
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Not All “Safe Havens” Are Safe As summer starts to wind down and we at MWM begin [...]
Friday, August 30, 2019
[Reuters] Global stocks scale one-week high on trade hopes, yuan softens [Reuters] Oil prices dip but set for solid weekly gains [Reuters] U.S. consumer spending increases solidly; income tepid [Reuters] China, U.S. trade negotiating teams [...]
Thursday, August 29, 2019
[Reuters] China trade comments boost Wall Street [Reuters] Argentina bonds plumb new lows, country risk soars, as govt eyes debt 'reprofiling' [Reuters] China sets yuan midpoint much firmer-than-expected for 3rd straight day [Reuters] Oil prices [...]
Wednesday, August 28, 2019
[Reuters] Global stocks under pressure as bond markets ring recession alarms [Reuters] Pound plunges as Johnson restricts parliament's time before Brexit [Reuters] U.S. yield curve inverts further, 30-year yields hit new record low [Reuters] Argentine [...]
Tuesday, August 27, 2019
[Reuters] World shares gain on flickering trade hopes [Reuters] Yuan rebounds after PBOC sets much stronger-than-expected fixing [Reuters] Gold gains as U.S.-China trade concerns lift safe-haven demand [Reuters] China says it hopes U.S. can create [...]
Monday, August 26, 2019
[Reuters] Wall Street rises after Trump's softer stance on trade [Reuters] Oil falls as U.S.-Iran optimism faces U.S.-China trade deal hopes [Reuters] Trump says China trade deal coming, Beijing calls for resolution of dispute [AP] [...]
Sunday, August 25, 2019
[CNBC] White House says Trump regrets not raising tariffs on China higher [CNBC] Trump on US-China trade war: ‘I could declare a national emergency’ [Reuters] Beneath show of bonhomie, rifts emerge between Trump and Western [...]
Saturday, August 24, 2019
[Reuters] China warns U.S. to stop 'wrong' trade actions or face consequences [Reuters] Global disputes set to jolt G7 summit in French resort [AP] At global summit, Trump facing limits of go-it-alone stance [Reuters] Explainer: [...]
August 23, 2019: Trade War Escalation and Bombs
August 23 – Reuters (Se Young Lee and Judy Hua): “China said on Friday it will impose retaliatory tariffs against about $75 billion worth of U.S. goods, putting as much as an extra 10% on [...]
Friday, August 23, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks lower after China threatens tariffs on U.S. goods [Reuters] Treasuries - Yields fall as China introduces tariffs on US goods [Reuters] Oil prices slide as U.S.-China trade war escalates [Reuters] European stocks sink [...]
Thursday, August 22, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks sharply lower after China threatens tariffs on U.S. goods [Reuters] Treasuries - Yields fall as China introduces tariffs on US goods [Reuters] Oil prices slide as U.S.-China trade war escalates [Reuters] European stocks [...]
Wednesday, August 21, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks gain on upbeat Target, Lowe's earnings; Fed minutes eyed [Reuters] European stocks recover before Fed minutes, Jackson Hole gathering [Reuters] Oil up over 1%, buoyed by U.S. stock drawdown [Politico] Trump team braces [...]
Tuesday, August 20, 2019
[Reuters] Global stocks inch higher as stimulus hopes spur tentative rebound [Reuters] Gold reclaims $1,500 mark as focus turns to Fed [Reuters] Oil edges lower, but hopes on easing trade tensions cap losses [CNBC] White [...]
Monday, August 19, 2019
[Reuters] Stimulus optimism boosts stocks, eases pressure on bonds [Reuters] Argentine CDS jump 300 bps after opposition leader says to re-negotiate IMF loan terms [Reuters] Oil up after drone attack on Saudi field, but OPEC [...]
Sunday, August 18, 2019
[CNBC] Fed’s Powell must signal a more aggressive stance on rates at Jackson Hole or stocks will tumble, James Bianco warns [Reuters] Argentina Treasury minister resigns, says 'significant renewal' needed amid economic crisis [Reuters] Germany [...]
Saturday, August 17, 2019
[Reuters] Exclusive: Fed's Mester weighing argument for U.S. rate cut [CNBC] Here’s what Powell could say at Jackson Hole to soothe the roller coaster markets [Reuters] China unveils rate reform to steer funding costs [...]
August 16, 2019: Comeuppance
The Chinese Credit machine sputtered in July. Growth in Total Aggregate Financing dropped to $144 billion, almost 40% below consensus estimates. This was less than half of June’s $320 billion increase and the slowest expansion [...]
Careful Planning, Particularity, and Patience – August 16, 2019
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Careful Planning, Particularity, and Patience The melt up in gold and precious metals along with related stocks [...]
Friday, August 16, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks gain on stimulus hopes but still head for third losing week [Reuters] U.S. housing starts drop for third straight month [CNBC] Fed may not have enough firepower to prevent a recession [Reuters] To [...]
Thursday, August 15, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks gain after strong retail sales data [Reuters] Global stocks hurt by China's trade threats, falling bond yields [Reuters] Oil prices fall on concerns over recession, inventories [Reuters] U.S. retail sales surge in [...]
Wednesday, August 14, 2019
[Reuters] Recession fears hit Wall Street after grim China, German data [Reuters] Stocks wilt as bond markets flash recession warnings [Reuters] Chinese yuan surrenders some gains; yen climbs as growth fears return [Reuters] U.S. Treasury [...]
Tuesday, August 13, 2019
[Reuters] Shares shunted after Argentina crash, safe-havens shine [CNBC] China fixes its yuan midpoint at 7.0326 per dollar [Reuters] Gold hits over 6-year peak on risk-off sentiment [Reuters] Fresh rise in Argentina CDS prices probability [...]
Monday, August 12, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks fall on trade war, global growth worries [Reuters] Yen and bond bulls charge on as share markets falter [Reuters] Gold holds firm above $1,500 on global growth worries [Reuters] Markets brace for volatility [...]
Saturday, August 10, 2019
[CNN] 'Fragile' oil demand is the weakest since 2008, energy watchdog says [Reuters] Hong Kong police fire tear gas during another weekend of protests [Reuters] Pakistan cuts last remaining transport link to India over Kashmir [...]
August 9, 2019: “Hot Money” Watch
In the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) Monday daily currency value “fixing,” the yuan/renminbi was set 0.33% weaker (vs. dollar) at 6.9225. Market reaction was immediate and intense. The Chinese currency quickly traded to 7.03 [...]
Tweeting for Turmoil: Roiling the Capital Markets with Less Than 280 Characters – August 9, 2019
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Tweeting for Turmoil: Roiling the Capital Markets with Less Than 280 Characters Earnings season is beginning to [...]
Friday, August 9, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks slip after Wall Street's best day in two months [Reuters] Europe rattled by Italy stress, safe havens keep gaining [Reuters] Treasuries - U.S. yields turn lower after U.S. July PPI data [Reuters] Yen [...]
Thursday, August 8, 2019
[Reuters] Markets find a floor as Chinese data soothe nerves [Reuters] Yuan edges up as PBOC signals intent to stabilise decline [CNBC] China sets the yuan midpoint at 7.0039 per dollar, weakest since April 2008 [...]
Wednesday, August 7, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks turn lower as investors flock to bonds, gold [Reuters] Fragile calm returns to stock markets as yuan steadies [AP] China’s yuan weakens after signs of stability calm markets [Reuters] Gold hits over 6-year [...]
Tuesday, August 6, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks rebound after Wall Street's worst day of 2019 [Reuters] Rout eases as China keeps yuan on a leash [AP] Global stocks rebound as China eases up on currency [Reuters] China's yuan steadies, but [...]
Monday, August 5, 2019
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Yuan Tumbles, Stocks Plunge; No `Circuit Breaker': Markets Wrap [Reuters] Trade row slams stocks, yuan slumps to lowest in over a decade [Reuters] China lets yuan slump past 7 per dollar for first time [...]
Sunday, August 4, 2019
[Reuters] Wall St Week Ahead-Disney report to shine spotlight on streaming war [Reuters] EU must change its negotiating terms for Brexit, says Britain's Barclay [Reuters] China destabilizing Indo-Pacific: U.S. Defense Secretary [Reuters] HK police fire [...]
Saturday, August 3, 2019
[Reuters] Trump defends stance on China trade after new tariffs [Reuters] South Korea warns Japan of security pact risk, calls for 'cooling-off' in trade row [Reuters] Shops shut, traffic blocked as protests again roil Hong [...]
August 2, 2019: Trump’s China Tariff Tweets
Twenty-four hours that confounded – as well as clarified. Chairman Powell has, again, been widely criticized for his messaging. With the markets and President Trump breathing down his neck, he’s been in a no-win situation. [...]
Some Bad News That’s Not All Bad – August 2, 2019
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Some Bad News That’sNot All Bad It has been an incredibly eventful week in the markets, as [...]
Friday, August 2, 2019
[Reuters] Trump tariff threat hits Wall Street for second day [Reuters] Trump's tariffs jolt global stocks, trigger rush to safety [AP] China’s yuan falls to 2019 low after Trump tariff threat [Reuters] Oil prices rebound [...]
Thursday, August 1, 2019
[Reuters] Mind your backs, dollar coming through! [CNBC] Chinese shares decline as data shows July manufacturing activity contracted [Reuters] Oil drops on Fed outlook, ample supply [Reuters] U.S., China to keep talking on trade after [...]
Wednesday, July 31, 2019
[Reuters] Wall St. higher on Apple bounce; Fed decision awaited [Reuters] Trade tensions drag on stocks as markets await Fed verdict [Reuters] Oil gains a fifth day after U.S. stockpile drop amid rate optimism [Reuters] [...]
Tuesday, July 30, 2019
[Reuters] Stormy sterling sinks again, stocks wilt before Fed [Reuters] Treasuries - U.S. yields turn flat after in-line June personal spending data [Reuters] Trump warns China not to wait for 2020 U.S. election to make [...]
Monday, July 29, 2019
[Reuters] Shares steady as Fed comes into focus; dollar at two-month high [Reuters] Oil loses ground on pessimism over U.S.-China trade talks [Reuters] A Fed interest rate cut is in the bag. What then? [Reuters] [...]
Sunday, July 28, 2019
[Reuters] Wall St Week Ahead- RPT-Even if Fed cut is a given, Powell seen as wild card for stock market [Reuters] Assuming EU will not budge, Britain ramps up preparations for no-deal Brexit [Reuters] China [...]
Saturday, July 27, 2019
[Reuters] Johnson tells EU: ditch backstop or face no-deal Brexit [Reuters] China's industrial profits fall in June, add to fears of slowdown [AP] France won’t scrap tax on tech giants, despite Trump threats [Reuters] Tear [...]
July 26, 2019: Fanning the Flames
The Federal Reserve abandoned “data dependent” – at least for next week’s FOMC meeting. December futures imply a 1.78% Fed funds rate, up six bps for the week but still 62 bps below today’s 2.40% [...]
Distinguishing Signal from Noise – July 26, 2019
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Distinguishing Signal from Noise We are in the midst of earnings season, and the enormous amount of [...]
Friday, July 26, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks stage tentative rebound after ECB disappointment [CNBC] GDP slows to 2.1% in second-quarter but beats expectations thanks to strong consumer [CNBC] Hedge fund manager Kyle Bass says a US-China trade deal can’t be [...]
Thursday, July 25, 2019
[AP] World stocks rise as ECB signals more stimulus coming [Reuters] ECB prepares some sub-zero relief for wilting Europe [Reuters] Euro zone yields hit record lows, euro wilts after ECB flags easing [Reuters] Oil advances [...]
Wednesday, July 24, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks hit as DOJ aims antitrust probe at tech [Reuters] Trade talks buoy stocks, gloomy data sink euro [Reuters] Euro plumbs two-month low ahead of ECB, pound under pressure [Reuters] Gold rises on expected [...]
Tuesday, July 23, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks rise after better-than-expected earnings [Reuters] Carmakers drive Europe higher, Johnson batters sterling [Reuters] Britain's new leader Johnson vows to get Brexit done [MarketWatch] IMF cuts its global growth forecast again [Yahoo/Bloomberg] UBS CEO [...]
Tactical Short Strategy Q2 July 18, 2019 Transcript
David: This is our 2nd quarter 2019 Conference Call for Tactical Short. I am David McAlvany. With me today is Doug Noland. What an exciting quarter to have been witness to. We are seeing [...]
Monday, July 22, 2019
[Reuters] Wall St. higher as earnings season gathers steam [Reuters] Stocks struggle, oil jumps on Middle East tensions [Reuters] Oil prices rise more than 1% after Iran seizes British tanker [Reuters] Dollar drifts higher as [...]
Sunday, July 21, 2019
[Reuters] Chinese companies looking to buy U.S. farm products: Xinhua [Reuters] Sink-or-swim showdown beckons for Italy's fractious coalition [Reuters] Iran warns UK against escalating tensions, says crew of seized ship safe [AP] Hong Kong residents [...]
Saturday, July 20, 2019
[Reuters] Wall Street Week Ahead: Prospect of Fed cut pushing dividend investors into tech, energy [Reuters] A rally and a redirect: why the markets are so focused on the Fed [CNBC] ‘It never stops’: [...]
July 19, 2019: Living Life at the ZLB
There must be members of the FOMC feeling they are about to be railroaded into a 50 bps cut a week from Wednesday. Chairman Powell essentially pre-committed to a reduction last week in testimony before [...]
Rabbit Season? Duck Season? No, Earnings Season! – July 19, 2019
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Rabbit Season? Duck Season? No, Earnings Season! Earnings season is upon us, and updates from companies in [...]
Friday, July 19, 2019
[Reuters] Fed rate cut bets buoy stocks, dollar steadies [Reuters] Microsoft brightens Wall St. mood as rate cut hopes rise [Reuters] U.S.-China officials discuss trade; Mnuchin eyes possible in-person talks [CNBC] BlackRock’s Fink: CEOs tell [...]
Tactical Short Strategy – July 18, 2019
Tactical Short Strategy Conference Call - July 18, 2019 CLICK HERE FOR THE TRANSCRIPT Disclaimer: Advisory services are offered by McAlvany Wealth Management, an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and [...]
Thursday, July 18, 2019
[Reuters] Global stocks slip as U.S.-China trade war drags on corporate earnings [Reuters] Euro and bond yields fall on report that ECB might amend inflation goal [Reuters] Crude futures steady after fall on U.S. oil [...]
Wednesday, July 17, 2019
[Reuters] Trade war, Brexit stoke debt and dollar, hit stocks and sterling [Reuters] Euro zone bond yields renew slide, Italian yields at lowest since 2016 [Reuters] Oil prices gain, U.S. crude little changed after inventory [...]
Tuesday, July 16, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks Flat as JPMorgan results; Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo eyed [Reuters] Bleak German mood weighs on Europe, Brexit pummels pound [Reuters] Oil steadies as U.S. supply concerns ease but Iran tensions loom [CNBC] US [...]
Monday, July 15, 2019
[Reuters] Reassuring Chinese data nudges shares higher [Reuters] Wall Street higher as banks rise after Citi results [Reuters] Oil prices edge lower as China's GDP growth slows [Reuters] Trump sees slowing Chinese growth pressuring Beijing [...]
Sunday, July 14, 2019
[Reuters] Pelosi sets spending demands for two-year budget deal [Reuters] South Korea trade ministry to raise Japan export curbs at WTO general council meeting [Reuters] Indian housing lender DHFL warns it may not survive as [...]
Saturday, July 13, 2019
[Reuters] Wall St. Week Ahead: Union Pacific, other freight co earnings eyed for tariff effects [Reuters] Japan-South Korea feud deepens with disputed accounts of trade meeting [Reuters] Hong Kong protesters, police clash as demonstrations target [...]
July 12, 2019: Central Banker to the World
Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany next Thursday, July 18th, at 4:00PM EST/ 2:00pm MST for the Tactical Short Q2 recap conference call, “What’s Behind the Global Yield Collapse?” Click here to register. July [...]
“This Is What It Sounds Like … When Doves Cry” – July 12, 2019
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: “This Is What It Sounds Like … When Doves Cry” It’s hard to think about the market [...]
Friday, July 12, 2019
[Reuters] Shares flat as investors digest economic data, dollar dips for third day [Reuters] Gold gains on U.S.-China trade jitters, rate cut hopes [Reuters] Oil near six-week highs amid Gulf of Mexico storm, Middle East [...]
Thursday, July 11, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks gain, dollar sags as Fed chief shores up rate cut prospects [Reuters] Oil at six-week high on Gulf of Mexico storm, Iran tensions [Reuters] U.S. core CPI posts biggest gain in nearly 1-1/2 [...]
Wednesday, July 10, 2019
[Reuters] Wall Street higher after Powell's remarks raise rate cut bets [Reuters] Oil prices rise as data shows bigger-than-expected fall in U.S. stockpiles [Reuters] Fed's Powell says trade, global growth concerns continue to weigh on [...]
Tuesday, July 9, 2019
[Reuters] Global stocks drop for third day, BASF warning stings Europe [Reuters] Oil rises towards $65 as supply concerns outweigh trade disputes [Reuters] U.S., China to relaunch talks with little changed since deal fell apart [...]
Monday, July 8, 2019
[Reuters] Global shares muted as prospect of sharp U.S. rate cut fades [Reuters] China stocks fall as U.S. rate cut expectations ease; new listings weigh [Reuters] Oil prices tread water as market eyes global risks [...]
Sunday, July 7, 2019
[Reuters] Erdogan says Turkish cenbank chief ousted for refusing rate cuts: report [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Deutsche Bank Drastic Overhaul Set to Return Lender to Roots [Reuters] Iran ratchets up nuclear tensions with enrichment plan [Reuters] China's envoy [...]
Saturday, July 6, 2019
[CNBC] Democracies are on track to lose their global economic dominance as ‘authoritarian capitalism’ rises [Reuters] Turkey's Erdogan fires central bank chief as policy rifts deepen [Bloomberg] Trump Says Fed ‘Doesn’t Have a Clue’ [Bloomberg] [...]
July 5, 2019: Abject Monetary Disorder
Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany Thursday, July 18th, at 4:00PM EST/ 2:00pm MST for the Tactical Short Q2 recap conference call, “What’s Behind the Global Yield Collapse?” Click here to register. A market [...]
Commodities Create Fireworks for the 4th – July 5, 2019
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management:Commodities Create Fireworks for the 4thI hope you all had a safe and happy Independence Day.Although it has been [...]
Friday, July 5, 2019
[Reuters] Wall Street lower after June jobs data [Reuters] Treasuries - U.S. yields rise further as job growth rebounds [Reuters] Money Markets - Traders trim bets on bold Fed rate cut in July [Reuters] Crude [...]
Thursday, July 4, 2019
[Reuters] Collapsing bond yields push world stocks to new highs [Reuters] German 10-year bond yield below ECB deposit rate for first time [CNBC] Trump tweet sparks concerns that the US may raise tariffs on Europe [...]
Wednesday, July 3, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks rally as bond yields plough new lows [Reuters] Gold gains on growth worries, monetary easing bets [Reuters] Dollar struggles as U.S. yields fall, dovish BoE weighs on pound [AP] US trade deficit rises [...]
Tuesday, July 2, 2019
[Reuters] Relief rally fades as growth fears loom [Reuters] Oil falls on demand worries even as OPEC, allies extend cuts [Reuters] Gold gains as weak economic data hints at global slowdown [Reuters] Treasuries - U.S. [...]
Monday, July 1, 2019
[Reuters] Wall St. eyes return to record highs as stocks cheer trade reprieve [Reuters] Asia's factory activity shrinks, U.S.-China trade truce fails to brighten outlook [CNBC] Morgan Stanley on trade truce: No real progress, downside [...]
Sunday, June 30, 2019
[Reuters] China warns of long road ahead for deal with U.S. after ice-breaking talks [Reuters] China's June factory activity shrinks faster than expected: official PMI [Reuters] China's service sector activity grows at slower pace in [...]
Saturday, June 29, 2019
[Reuters] 'Back on track': China and U.S. agree to restart trade talks [CNBC] Trump says he agreed with Xi to hold off on new tariffs and to let Huawei buy US products [Reuters] G20 stops [...]
June 28, 2019: History Rhymes
President Trump and President Xi are meeting in Osaka as I write. We’ll know much more in the morning. Pre-meeting reports had the two sides agreeing to a “truce.” Heading into the meeting, President Trump [...]
Encouraged, but Proceeding Deliberately – June 28, 2019
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Encouraged, but Proceeding Deliberately It has been a busy week in the hard assets realm as it [...]
Friday, June 28, 2019
[Reuters] Markets brace for crucial G20 signals [Reuters] Futures higher with G20 summit, inflation data in focus [Reuters] Gold gains on U.S.-China trade jitters; heads for best month in 3 years [CNBC] US consumer spending [...]
Thursday, June 27, 2019
[Reuters] Sino-U.S. trade truce hopes rekindle risk appetite [CNBC] China is not budging ahead of Xi-Trump G-20 meeting [CNBC] China’s Xi to present Trump with terms for settling trade deal: WSJ [Reuters] U.S., China agree [...]
Wednesday, June 26, 2019
[Reuters] Global stocks gain as trade talk hopes rise, rate-cut pressure ebbs [MarketWatch] U.S. trade deficit in goods widens 5.1% to $74.5 billion in May [AP] US durable goods orders fall 1.3% in May with [...]
Tuesday, June 25, 2019
[Reuters] Trade stress, Iran tensions hits stocks, dollar frets on Fed doves [Reuters] Dollar weighed by Fed prospects; Swiss franc, gold shine on geopolitics [Bloomberg] Gold Jumps to Highest in Almost 6 Years Fueled by [...]
Monday, June 24, 2019
[AP] World shares mixed ahead of Trump-Xi meet at G-20 summit [Reuters] Gold rises above $1,400 on cenbank stimulus hopes, U.S.-Iran tensions [Reuters] Oil up on U.S.-Iran tensions but demand concerns cap gains [Reuters] China [...]
Sunday, June 23, 2019
[CNBC] Trump says he never threatened to demote Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [Reuters] Trump says new sanctions on Iran to start Monday, dials back rhetoric [Reuters] Johnson's domestic dispute fuels debate in Britain [...]
Saturday, June 22, 2019
[Reuters] China state media urges U.S. to drop win-at-all-costs trade stance [Reuters] Iran says it will respond firmly to any U.S. threat as tension spikes [Bloomberg] Fed Loses Its Patience and Almost Everything You Can [...]
June 21, 2019: Rejoicing Central Banker Capitulation
June 21 – Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis Fed president: “In the Federal Open Market Committee meeting that concluded on Wednesday of this week, I advocated for a 50-basis-point rate cut to 1.75% to 2.00% and a [...]
Forward, March – June 21, 2019
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Forward, March These are truly remarkable times for hard assets. We are finally beginning to see signs [...]
Friday, June 21, 2019
[Reuters] Wall St. slips as Iran tensions rise [Reuters] Iran-U.S. tensions take the edge off world stocks rally [CNBC] Gold spikes above $1,400 per ounce to prices not seen in nearly 6 years [MSN/NYT] Trump [...]
Thursday, June 20, 2019
[Reuters] Fed rate-cut signal sends stocks up, bond yields and dollar down [Reuters] Gold soars to 5-year peak as US Fed signals rate cut [CNBC] 10-year Treasury yield drops as low as 1.97%, first time [...]
Wednesday, June 19, 2019
[Reuters] Central banks' dovish cooing keeps world stocks lulled near two-week highs [Reuters] Oil inches down as inventory data counters trade deal hopes [AP] Fed could signal a policy shift toward future rate cuts [Reuters] [...]
Tuesday, June 18, 2019
[Reuters] Wall Street higher on hopes of accommodative Fed [Reuters] 'Super Mario' shock: euro slides, yields hit new lows [CNBC] Global bond yields are cratering with French bond rates now at zero and the US [...]
Monday, June 17, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks, dollar hold gains with all eyes on Fed meeting [Reuters] Oil prices fall 1% as economic worries outweigh tanker tensions [CNBC] Trump ‘perfectly happy’ to slap further tariffs on China if no deal [...]
Sunday, June 16, 2019
[Reuters] China prepared for long trade fight with the U.S.: party journal [MarketWatch] Five things to watch in the pivotal Fed meeting [Reuters] Chinese regulators will restructure Baoshang Bank as soon as possible [Reuters] India [...]
Saturday, June 15, 2019
[CNBC] The Fed won’t cut rates at its June meeting. Here’s why [Reuters] Bowing to pressure, Hong Kong leader suspends extradition bill [Reuters] Breakingviews - Beijing yields to Hong Kong’s financial clout [Reuters] Trump says [...]
June 14, 2019: Q1 2019 Z.1 “Flow of Funds”
Total Non-Financial Debt (NFD) expanded (nominal) $721 billion (strongest growth since Q2 ’18) during the quarter to a record $52.579 TN. NFD expanded $2.504 TN, or 5.0%, year-on-year. For perspective, annual NFD growth averaged $1.602 [...]
Hard Assets Insights – June 14, 2019
Weekly Hard Assets Insights By David McAlvany It has been a dichotomous environment for hard assets securities. On one hand, because of the toll that the threat of escalating tariff wars has taken on [...]
Friday, June 14, 2019
[Reuters] China data, Gulf tensions see bond yields slip, stocks suffer [FXStreet] Poor Chinese data sends Gold to 14-month high [Reuters] Oil set for weekly loss as demand fears outweigh geopolitics [Reuters] U.S. retail sales [...]
Thursday, June 13, 2019
[Reuters] Oil surges after Gulf tanker attacks, stocks claw higher [Reuters] Base metals fall amid trade uncertainty, weak China data [Reuters] Oil tanker attacks in Gulf of Oman fuel security, oil supply fears [Reuters] China [...]
Wednesday, June 12, 2109
[Reuters] Shares snap seven-day hot streak [CNN] Hong Kong stocks fall as huge protests hit financial center [Reuters] Oil falls over 2% on weaker demand growth, gain in U.S. crude stocks [Reuters] Dollar hovers near [...]
Tuesday, June 11, 2019
[Reuters] World shares rally again on Trump tariff relief, Fed hopes [Reuters] U.S. underlying producer prices increase solidly in May [Reuters] China says will respond if U.S. escalates trade tension [Reuters] Under pressure, Fed faces [...]
Monday, June 10, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks climb on trade, rate cut optimism; yuan falters [Reuters] Oil rises as Saudi sees OPEC, Russia restricting supplies for longer [Reuters] China stays silent on G20 Xi-Trump meeting, but says door open for [...]
Sunday, June 9, 2019
[Reuters] G20 finance chiefs express concern over risks from 'intensified' trade conflict [CNBC] Trump is ‘perfectly happy’ to hit China with new tariffs if Xi meeting doesn’t go well, Mnuchin says [Reuters] Italy's ruling parties [...]
Saturday, June 8, 2019
[Reuters] U.S. Treasury's Mnuchin says Trump-Xi meeting has parallels to Buenos Aires summit [Reuters] G20 finance chiefs to warn of trade risks, differ on how 'pressing' [Reuters] China to curb some technology exports to U.S.: [...]
June 7, 2019: Horde of Jumbo Bazookas
“Stocks Eye Best Week of 2019 on ‘Powell Put’ Bets,” read the Friday Bloomberg headline. By the close of Friday trading, the S&P500 had posted a gain of 4.4% (“best week since November”). Also from [...]
A Bounce/Relief Rally for Stocks – June 7, 2019
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: A Bounce/Relief Rally for Stocks This week we saw an easing in trade tensions and an increase [...]
Friday, June 7, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks gain after sharp slowdown in May jobs growth [CNBC] 10-year Treasury yield drops below 2.06%, its lowest since September 2017, after bad jobs report [Reuters] Dollar falls to 2-1/2 month low after U.S. [...]
Thursday, June 6, 2019
[Reuters] Rate cut bets buoy U.S. stocks despite rise in trade tensions [Reuters] Yen gains on U.S.-Mexico trade woes; ECB awaited [Reuters] Trump threatens China with tariffs on further $300 billion of goods [AP] China [...]
Wednesday, June 5, 2019
[Reuters] Fed's slipstream leaves stocks beaming, dollar subdued [MarketWatch] Gold prices jump, head for longest win streak in 1 ½ years [Reuters] Oil slides on U.S. inventory build, equity rally caps losses [CNBC] Job growth [...]
Tuesday, June 4, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks fend off tech problems; bonds stay strong [Reuters] Oil falls to lowest since January on economic slowdown [Reuters] U.S. firms fret as China's FedEx probe, planned hit-list heightens trade frictions [Reuters] China issues [...]
Monday, June 3, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks drop as trade tensions spark recession fears, flight to safety [Reuters] Bonds 'on fire' as flight to safety gathers momentum [Reuters] Gold hits 2-month high as recession worries drive safe-haven demand [Reuters] Yen, [...]
Sunday, June 2, 2019
[Reuters] China says U.S. can't use pressure to force trade deal [Reuters] China and U.S. clash again on trade and regional security [AP] China blames US for trade dispute, says it won’t back down [CNBC] [...]
Saturday, June 1, 2019
[Reuters] U.S. begins collecting higher tariffs on Chinese goods arriving by sea [Reuters] Mexico eyes steps to cut immigrant flows to U.S. border, official says [AP] Trump digs in on Mexican import tariffs despite uproar [...]
May 31, 2019: So Much for the Trump Put
So Much for the “Trump Put.” May 31 – Bloomberg (Felice Maranz): “President Trump’s promise to impose tariffs on goods until Mexico halts a flow of undocumented immigrants is being panned by analysts and economists… [...]
Another Taste of Stock Market Vulnerability – May 31, 2019
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Another Taste of Stock Market Vulnerability Tariff and tariff threats continued to weigh on US and global [...]
Friday, May 31, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks slide as Trump threatens tariffs on Mexico [CNBC] US 10-year yield collapses to 2.16% as Trump’s surprise Mexico tariffs stoke recession worries [Reuters] Yen surges as Trump's Mexico threat fuels recession fears [Reuters] [...]
Thursday, May 30, 2019
[Reuters] Global stocks steady, yields bounce [Reuters] Defying rate-cut expectations, dollar gains for fourth month [MarketWatch] Trade deficit widens in April as exports and imports drop [CNBC] First-quarter economic growth up 3.1%, better than Wall [...]
Wednesday, May 29, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks slide as rising trade tensions fuel slowdown worries [Reuters] Bond bulls get a boost as trade tensions fan recession fears [CNBC] 3-month yield tops 10-year rate in widest curve inversion since financial crisis [...]
Tuesday, May 28, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks rally cut off by EU threats over Italy's budget [CNBC] 10-year Treasury yield drops to 19-month low as trade fights threaten US growth [Reuters] Oil defies trade fears as prices rise on tight [...]
Monday, May 27, 2019
[Reuters] European stocks gain on EU election relief and auto shares surge [Reuters] Gold edges up to 1-week high as U.S.-China trade worries persist [Reuters] Oil rises to $69 as Mideast tension and supply cuts [...]
Sunday, May 26, 2019
[Reuters] China says U.S. demand on its state-owned enterprises is 'invasion' on economic sovereignty [Reuters] China to offer liquidity to Baoshang Bank [Reuters] ECB's Weidmann sees no need for policy action [Reuters] Libya's Haftar rules [...]
Saturday, May 25, 2019
[Reuters] Wall Street Weekahead: Trade protection doesn't have to exclude growth stocks [Reuters] China accuses U.S. officials of misleading public on trade war [Reuters] World faces 'clear and present danger' from trade war escalation [AP] [...]
May 24, 2019: The Ignore Them, Then Panic Dynamic
After years of increasingly close cooperation and collaboration, the relationship has turned strained. Both sides are digging in their heels. Credibility is on the line. If one side doesn’t back down, things could really turn [...]
Hawkish FOMC Minutes – No Help to Speculators – May 24, 2019
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Hawkish FOMC Minutes – No Help to Speculators Friday’s close marked the fifth straight week of losses [...]
Friday, May 24, 2019
[Reuters] Global stocks climb on muted trade hopes, sterling yo-yos as PM May quits [Reuters] Oil bounces back, but markets remain fragile amid trade disputes [Reuters] Tearful May resigns, paving way for Brexit confrontation with [...]
Thursday, May 23, 2019
[Reuters] Stocks tumble on fears of possible U.S.-China tech cold war [Reuters] Trade woes sink shares, Brexit weighs on sterling [Reuters] Yen gains as trade woes, Brexit concerns shake investor confidence [CNBC] China says trade [...]
Wednesday, May 22, 2019
[Reuters] Wall Street lower on fresh trade fears [Reuters] Investors run for safety amid threat of broader U.S.-China spat [Reuters] Prepare for difficult times, China's Xi urges as trade war simmers [CNBC] Treasury Secretary Mnuchin [...]
Tuesday, May 21, 2019
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] S&P Climbs With Europe Stocks; Bonds Mixed: Markets Wrap [AP] AP Explains: US sanctions on Huawei bite, but who gets hurt? [AP] Powell says he sees ‘moderate’ risk from corporate debt [Politico] 'Big 4' [...]
Monday, May 20, 2019
[Reuters] Stock markets slide as worries about Huawei fallout mount [Reuters] Oil surges after OPEC indicates it will maintain output cuts [Reuters] U.S., China bicker over 'extravagant expectations' on trade deal [CNBC] China in ‘no [...]
Sunday, May 19, 2019
[Reuters] Mideast Stocks - Property pulls down Dubai as most Gulf markets lower [Reuters] China's central bank says to keep yuan stable, in balanced range [BBC] Brexit: Theresa May plans 'bold offer' to get support [...]
Saturday, May 18, 2019
[Reuters] Wall Street Weekahead: Tariffs could lead to markdowns in retail shares [Reuters] Exclusive: U.S. may scale back Huawei trade restrictions to help existing customers [Reuters] Australia's conservative government moves into election-winning position [Reuters] Chinese [...]
May 17, 2019: True Start to U.S. vs. China Trade War
Let’s begin with the markets. Ten-year Treasury yields dropped eight bps this week to 2.39%, nearing the March 27th low (2.37%). Two-year yields fell seven bps to 2.20%, a 13-month low. German bund yields declined [...]
Damage Control – May 17, 2019
Here’s the news of the week – and how we see it here at McAlvany Wealth Management: Damage Control The Trump administration made little progress on tradewith the Chinese this week, but made up [...]
Friday, May 17, 2019
[Reuters] Shares swoon as Beijing ramps up war of words [Reuters] Yen gains as euro and yuan troubl